PEV WORLD MARKET

Tom Turrentine PH&EV Research Center Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis Philadelphia, November 2017

The total number of PEVs in the world at end of 2017 will likely exceed 3 million (out of 1 billion vehicles) & 1 million in

sales out of 88 million (about 100,000 per month) 2017

forecast

2017 forecast

1 % of world LDV annual sales

• Batteries: $$$, reliability, performance • Policy: regulation, financial, other • PEV Rollout - especially SUV vs Sedans • BEVs vs PHEVs (eVMT) • Infrastructure rollout • Grid integration & renewables • Citizen, science & consumer education

Market variables:

2025

Early core market: 6-15%

2020

3-5% of market

1st generation policy, vehicles, “innovators” & infrastructure 200,000 PEVs 20-30 models

2010 2015

1-2%

2nd generation 200 mile batteries,

automated vehicles,

“followers” 4-500,000

PEVs 30-100 models

3rd generation: vehicles, “core

market” 6-800,000

PEVS

A plausible California scenario 4th generation 3 - 4

million??? Curve based on rollout of HEVs in Japan & California 1997-2015 & rules

Main market 15-25%

2030 California

2025 ZEV goal = 15% / 1.2-5 million BEVS, FCV & PHEVs

700 300 200 150 Lithium pack prices per kWh

2020 2010

2015

“Innovators”

2nd generation 3-5% of market,

500,000 new PEVs

“Early adopters” also called

“Fast Followers”

“Innovators 2nd, 3rd PEV purchases”

This model is made more complex by the used PEV market, being studied by Gil Tal.

1st generation 1- 3 % of market,

200,000 PEVs

150,000 PEV innovator

households

Used PEVs

And a growing used PEV market

Many PEV sales forecasts getting optimistic about PEV fleet & sales millions

Tom estimates red line would be 10 % of world market in

2020 (100 million LDVs)

Tom guesses 600 million might be 40 %

of world market in 2040 (150 million LDVs ?)

Policy goals shaping market & commercialization of PEVs

• ZEV programs: California, Section 177 States (Oregon, Northeast), Quebec, expanding to China & EU

• National goals to eliminate fossil fueled vehicle sales: (12 nations)

– 2025: Norway,

– 2030: India, Sweden, Netherlands (maybe China)

– 2040: UK “clean air,” France “carbon” (all policy steps not yet developed)

• Cities: Intentions to ban diesel & internal combustion

– Several Chinese cities, Brazil, Stuttgart, Munich, London, Paris, Mexico

Multiple studies point to “pack” prices under $200 per kWh early

next decade 60 kWh pack (Bolt or Tesla 3)

would be around $10,000

• Tesla says cells $190 kWh in 2016 & $100 in 2020

• GM said it paid $145 per kWh “cell” for 2017 Bolt

Bloomberg “cells” & “packs”

DOE – “cell price”

$ per kWh $ per kWh

$ per kWh

McKinsey – “pack price”

A few locations “beachhead markets” are in double digits: San Jose, California; Shanghai, Beijing China

Norway passed 50% in Sept., Sweden reached 5%.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

YR 2012 YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 YR 2016

Global PEV Sales by Country New Zealand

Czech Republic

Romania

Slovenia

Poland

Estonia

Ukraine

Ireland

Australia

Iceland

Finland

Portugal

Austria

Denmark

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

Belguim

Canada

Sweden

Germany

France

Netherlands

Norway

Japan

USA

China

USA

China

Japan

Norway

Netherlands

France

There was 37% PEV market growth worldwide in 2016 Europe had 33,000 sales in Sept.

350

300

-250 I/) -0 c: co I/) ::J 0 200 .c: I--I/) (J)

~ 150 (J)

0 .c: (J)

> 100

50

0

316.8

207.0

2015 2016

China

Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type

209.3

188.3

159.6

114.0

22.8 24.3

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

Europe United States Japan

• PHEV

• EV

6.9 10.3

2015 2016

Canada

China has over 1 million PEVs & 50% of world PEV sales (Total vehicle sales around 23 million)

2 % of total sales

59,000 in Sept 2017- 81% growth over past Sept.

German car market responding to incentives and new models

(June & July around 4000)

1 % of new car sales

• Just 14 urban markets account for a third of global electric vehicle sales – The sales leaders have 10,000 to 40,000 new electric vehicle sales per year – The sales share leaders have electric vehicle shares of 10-27% of new vehicle sales

World electric vehicle capitals source ICCT

24 Analyzed at metro area level, 2015. Source: Hall, D., Moultak, M., Lutsey, N. (2017). Electric vehicle capitals of the world: Demonstrating the path to electric drive. http://www.theicct.org/EV-capitals-of-the-world

6 cities near or above 10% of sales in 2016

Market is increasingly diversified, with new competition each quarter

Global Plug-in Volume 2017 Q1 by Make

Tesla

BMW Group

Nissan

BAIC

VWGroup

TMC

GM

Renault

BYD

Daimler

Mitsubishi

SAIC

Zhidou

Hyundai- Kia

Ford

Zotye

JMC

Volvo

Geely

Kandi

Dongfeng

JAC

PSA

FCA

Changan

Other (40)

0 5

• EV 10

• PHEV 15

EV VOLUMES.COM

'OOOs 01 -17 +/-vs

20 25 Share CV2016

13,9% +4,0 %

9,3% +1,7 %

8,8% +1,5%

6,9% +0,9%

6,3% -1,9%

5,5% +5, 1 o/o 5,3% +1, 1 %

5,2% +1,7%

4,8% -8,4%

3,5% +0,8%

3,5% -0,3%

3,4% +0,9%

3,0% +0,4%

2,9% +0,8%

2,6% -0,6%

2,5% -2,2%

2,5% +0,5%

2, 1 o/o -0,2%

1 ,0% -1,2%

1 ,0% -0,5%

1 ,0% +0,3%

0,8% -1,5%

0,8% +O, 1 o/o

0,8% +0,3%

0,7% +O, 1 o/o

1 ,8% -3, 1 o/o

2016 PEV Sales Top 10 Cities in China: BEVs only in Beijing & registration restrictions are important

2016 PEV

Sales BEV

Manufacturer PHEV

Manufacturer

Beijing 63000 BAIC

Shanghai 41483 SAIC

Qingdao 27198

Shenzhen 25131 BYD BYD

Tianjin 21611

Taiyuan 17854

Guangzhou 16506 GAC

Hangzhou 15033 Geely, Zotye

Hefei 7805 JAC

Wuhu 7413 Chery

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

BEV PHEV

City with plate restriction

Data Source: WAYS, 2017 ww.way-s.cn

* *

*

* * * *

Cumulative USA & California PEVs June 2017

California Total PEV = 308,174

USA Total PEV= 647, 956 June sales = 16, 591 YTD sales = 86,934

2017 2015 2016 2014 2013 2012 2011

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

200,000

100,000

300,000

USA Sales could hit 200,000 by end of year; Tesla 3 and next Nissan Leaf should be significant additions (source Inside Evs)

1 % of US market Sept 17 sales

21,000

0

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1.5

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2.5

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3.5

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5

Q1-

13Q

2-13

Q3-

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17*

Chart Title

GA Rest UT CO CT VT OR WA HI DC CA

California almost 5% in this quarter, 8 states are at 1-2%, the rest of US at about .5%

%

Georgia

Wash. DC

Hawaii

5%

3%

Connecticut

California

Oregon

Vermont

Washington

Colorado Utah

Rest of USA

2%

1%

4%

More regional issues: • Electricity prices • Future

emissions • Vehicles mix:

pick-ups, etc… • Time of day: for

solar & wind. • Seasons: heat,

cool, de-humidify vehicle

Where in the US “today” do PEVs create the least greenhouse gases per mile (Union of Concern Scientists 2014 grid data)

MPGghg) for BEVs: Green = 1000-5100 Yellow = 100-999 Blue = 52-99 Pink = 29-51 Gray = no data

Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle University of Michigan, Sustainable Worldwide Transportation

MPG carbon equivalent for BEVs around the world

California PEV sales around 5%: 1st quarter 2017 - source CNCDA

4.8 6.1

6.8 6.3 5.8 4.7

0.5

1 1.2 1.6

1.4

1.7 0.5

0.4

1.3 1.6 1.7

1.9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 YTD

HEV

BEV

PHEV

%

4.4 %

2.7%

2.1%

1st quarter 2017

EU Policy shapes PHEV vs BEV; supply of PHEVs has gone up (source evVolumes)

% market growth in 2016

PHEVs BEVs

Austria is “not” rewarding PHEVs,

Norway is recently rewarding PHEVs

Netherlands has shifted policy

emphasis to BEVs

Number of models in PEV market closely linked to sales growth- thru Q-1 2017

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USA USA

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30000

Netherlands

Netherlands Netherlands

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Thou

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Germany

Germany Germany

0510152025303540

02468

10121416

Thou

sand

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Norway

Norway Norway

While the current offerings emphasizes sedans, the shift in next 3-4 years is to SUV/Crossover & should expand sales

“Can you name a BEV that is being sold in the US?”

A major barrier to rapid growth is lack of awareness, knowledge and experience with PEVs

Surveys in 2014-2017 California Car Buyers (n=1600) Source:, K.Kurani UC Davis

Challenges & Opportunities • Policy:

– durable policy systems (till market reaches 15% / battery prices hit $100 kWh) • Battery prices:

– Expensive, but price dropping faster than expected leading to bigger batteries • PEV rollout:

– Automakers are developing a wider range of vehicle designs & bigger batteries – > 40 “Makes & models” per market (but main market has hundreds of designs)

• Charging: – Complex system: home, work, corridors, destinations including low to very high

powered “plugs” (3 – 350 kWh) – Difficult to make money (especially with “free” charging), need to engage

public utilities • Renewable energy: consistent progress in last decade • Early market: Most buyers uninformed

– First buyers “motivated” to inform rest of market – Public fleets and taxis can inform

• Need to motivate “retail” sector (dealers, sales staff)

Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dr. Gil Tal, Research Director, PEV Markets, Travel Behavior Dahlia Garas, Program Director Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations and Market Models Dr. Scott Hardman, Global Policy, Europe PEV Markets Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback Systems 20+ affiliated Graduate and Undergraduate Students 4 Research Staff, programmers

Thank you