MATH MEN

THE SCIENCE-IFICATION OF MEDIA

Terence Kawaja

SCIENCE-IFICATION

What the hell does that mean?

Digital  is  just  now  finding  its  true  value  as  a  media  channel  

Display  media  is  at  a  cri8cal  inflec8on  point  

I see the boys in Mountainview agree

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Media  From  Evolu8on  to  Revolu8on  

Phase   Tradi8onal   “New”   Online   Science-­‐ified  

Time  Period   Prior  to  1990   1990  to  present   1995  to  present   2008  to  present  

Gauge   Broadcast   Narrowcast   Targeted   Personalized  

Channels   TV,  Radio,  Print   Cable,  Satellite  Radio,  Specialty  Magazines  

Internet   Social,  Mobile,  Local,  Real  Time  

Example  Companies  

Business  Model   SubscripHon,      Brand  AdverHsing  

SubscripHon   ROI-­‐based  AdverHsing  

Data  Driven  Adver8sing  -­‐  Ecommerce  

Content  Delivery   Push   Push   Pull   Real  Time  Push  

Consumer  Choice   Few   Many   Infinite   Personalized  

Pace  of  Growth   Slow   Accelerated   Rapid   Very  Rapid  

Capital  Required   $$$$$$$$   $$$$$$   $$$   $  

Like science-ified media, my drinking could be described as - SOCIAL - MOBILE - LOCAL - REAL TIME

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Most traditional media companies are managing decline curves and are challenged to convert to the digital platforms

Time

$

Cable TV

Broadcast TV

Radio

Newspapers

Directories

?

Management Cycle

Decline  Curves  and  the  Innovator’s  Dilemma  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

There’s  No  Going  Back  

Data  makes  it  all  possible  

Good idea

What a mess! I need a drink

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

The  Display  Adver8sing  Technology  Landscape  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

SSP

DMP

INF

DSP

Moving  Away  From  Point  Solu8ons  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

SSP

DMP

INF

DSP WHICH COMPANY WILL ANCHOR A CREDIBLE # 2?

Ecosystem-­‐Wide  Players  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

SSP

DMP

INF

DSP WHICH COMPANY WILL ANCHOR A CREDIBLE # 2?

Dark  Horse  Candidates  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Consolida8on  Has  Already  Begun  

i

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

The  Ad  Market  Opportunity  is  Much  Bigger  

Digital

Display

Search

Television Print OOH Radio

The advertiser needs to solve for: 1. Allocation 2. Optimization 3. Attribution

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Media  is  becoming  personal  

But  will  privacy  concerns  kill  the  opportunity?  

The Journal is doing an investigative series on advertising and privacy……I need a drink.

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Implica8ons  for  the  Purchase  Funnel…  

Purchase  Funnel   Metric   Example  Companies  

CPM  

CPC  

CPL  

CPA  

Transac8on  

Customer  

Search  

Lead  

Impression  

Sale  

Data  

Art  

Science  

Display  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

…Include  a  Collapse  of  the  Funnel  

CPM  

CPC  

CPL  

CPA  

Transac8on  

Customer  

Search  

Lead  

Impression  

Sale  

Data  

Display  

Customer  

Search  

Lead  

Sale  

Purchase  Funnel   Metric   Example  Companies  

Art  

Science  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Think  Big:  More  Than  Just  Media  

SEARCH  

DESIGN  CRM  

CONTENT  

ECOMMERCE  

DISPLAY  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Science-­‐ified  Content  Discovery:  Publisher  Nirvana?  

Publisher

Real  Time  Web   Tradi8onal  

Off-­‐ramp:  Traffic  Acquisi8on  

On-­‐ramp:  Content  Distribu8on  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Perhaps we should buy one of these media technology companies…

I’ll plan the party

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Outlier  M&A  Interest  in  Media  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Who knew?

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Digital  Compe88on:  Clash  of  the  Titans  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

A  winning  strategy  

©  LUMA  Partners  LLC  2010  

Thank  You  

Terence  Kawaja  President  and  CEO  tkawaja@lumapartners.com  tkawaja