Post on 21-Apr-2020
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
The Potential Evolution of EVs to the Consumer Mainstream in Canada: A Geodemographic
Segmentation ApproachPresented by Mark R. Ferguson, PhD
May 2017
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Partners
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Social Costs and Benefits of Electric Mobility in Canada: Funded by SSHRC
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
According to McKinsey and Co. (2017)
• Consumer demand is beginning its shift to favour electric vehicles
– Strong disruption potential
• Awareness, Familiarity, Consideration, Purchase
– Between 30% and 45% in U.S. and Germany are at the consideration phase
• We assess mainstream potential in Canada with a comprehensive 2015 survey of households
– Digging deeper than early adopter patterns
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Sequence of the Survey
• Filtering and geographic (e.g. postal code)
• Environmental attitudes
• Inventory of household vehicles
• Vehicle purchase plan
• Rating of vehicle attributes
• Stated preference (education and scenarios)
• EV-oriented attitudinal questions
• Demographics and related
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Vehicle Powertrain Options
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
We developed a synthetic population of Canadian households
• Each of about 13.5 million Canadian households was matched with one nearby record from the survey (in distance and urban hierarchy terms)
• This was done in such a way that constraints (targets) associated with small census areas were maximally respected when contained hhld records added up
• Targets were related to demographics and vehicle registration totals by primary makes
• Individual survey records were used multiple times even in the same small census area
• Detailed mapping facilitated for all aspects of the survey including EV attitudes/behaviour
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
National Latent Class Choice Model
• A multivariate statistical model that helps us understand the predictors of choice of powertrain
• can segment households (put them into buckets) guided by demographics, location, attitudes of hhlds
• Different segments evaluate attributes (e.g. government incentives, electric range, vehicle maintenance costs) in different ways
• Each segment is a “mindset” (a bundle of evaluation tendencies) towards powertrains
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Characterization of 4 Latent “Mindsets”
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Mindset by Urban-Rural Index
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Mindset by Age of Respondent
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
How much extra would I pay for a vehicle to gain an extra km of driving
range?
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
How much extra would I pay for a vehicle to reduce its annual maintenance costs by $100?
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
An Eight Segment Solution
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Conclusions
• Considerable potential to examine any aspect of consumer survey at fine levels of geography
• Generally strong openness to plug-in vehicles; disruptive potential confirmed by results
• Awkwardness of home charging in dense urban contexts a definite theme but still favourable perceptions of BEVs
• PHEVs were seen as more palatable in mid-2015
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
FLEET RESEARCH
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Canadian Fleet Registrations
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Distribution of Sample by Sector
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Organization Employees and Fleet Sites
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Fleet Renewal Options
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Typical Fleet Choice Scenario
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Geodemographic Evolution to the Mainstream
Scenario Powertrain Shares Over 3 Distinct Surveys
Powertrain Corporate/Government Rental Consumer
ICE 34% 33% 44%
HEV 29% 25% 23%
PHEV 26% 23% 22%
BEV 11% 19% 11%
100% 100% 100%