The Changing Demographics of New American Children

Children’s Law Symposium

October 26, 2011Houston, TX

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Growing States, 2000-2010

Percent ChangeDue to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangeNatural

IncreaseNet

MigrationPercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33

*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to2001

2001 to2002

2002 to2003

2003 to2004

2004 to2005

2005 to2006

2006 to2007

2007 to2008

2008 to2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009

Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009

Net domesti

c migr

ation

International

migrati

onTotal

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

6

Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of the 2000 Population

Legend-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

7

Legend0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of the 2000 Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

His-panic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

9

Percent Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

10

Numeric Change in Hispanic Population by county, 2000-2010Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010

nch_hsp0010-1,200 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 15,000

15,001 - 25,000

25,001 - 56,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

11

Numeric Change in Asian Population by County, 2000-2010

Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010nch_asi0010

-198 - 0

1 - 500

501 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 77,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

12

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000

Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anglo Female Hispanic Female Black Female Other Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

13

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Anglo Male Anlgo Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

Percent Foreign Born0-5%

5-10%

10-15%

15-25%

25-35%

Percent of Population that is Foreign Bornby County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

15

Legal Status of U.S. Immigrants

37.0 Million Foreign-Born in 2005Source: Passel, J. (2006) The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Pew Hispanic Research Center.

16

Estimates of the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population, 2000-2010

17

Unauthorized Families’ Mixed Composition

Source: Passel, J. (2006) The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Pew Hispanic Research Center.

18

Parents' Status for Births in the U.S., 2009

Notes: Births occurring March 2009 –March 2010 based on population under age 1. Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding. Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on augmented March Supplements to the Current Population Survey.

19

Children with At Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status for 2000-2010

Note: Children are persons under age 18 who are not married. Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on augmented March Supplements to the Current Population Survey.

20

States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

State Estimate (thousands) Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)

Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

Percent of the Population 5 Years and Over Who Speak Spanish at Home, 2009

Texas

California

New Mexic

o

Arizona

Nevada

Florid

a

New Jerse

y

New York

Montana

North Dak

otaMain

e

West Virg

inia

Vermont

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2009.

Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home0-10%

10-25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-96%

Percent of the Population 5 Years and Over Who Speak Spanish at Home, 2006-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

23

Educational Attainment of Persons 25 Years of Age and Older by Ethnicity in Texas, 2009

Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

8%43%

25%

25%33%

21%34%

11%

Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2009.

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.

25

Demographics and Destiny

26

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.