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Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends€¦ · Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends...
Transcript of Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends€¦ · Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends...
Changing Demographics
and Workforce TrendsStatewide Census Analysis
Phil Wheeler, AICP
Planning DirectorRochester Olmsted Planning
Department
2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Cities
City 2000 2010
Change 2000-2010
% Change 2000-2010
2010 Minority
Population%
Minority
Minneapolis city 382,747 382,578 -169 0.00% 151,928 39.70%
St. Paul city 286,840 285,068 -1,772 -0.60% 125,631 44.10%
Rochester city 85,806 106,769 20,963 24.40% 22,161 20.80%
Duluth city 86,319 86,265 -54 -0.10% 9,081 10.50%
Bloomington city 85,172 82,893 -2,279 -2.70% 18,919 22.80%
Brooklyn Park city 67,388 75,781 8,393 12.50% 37,833 49.90%
Plymouth city 65,894 70,576 4,682 7.10% 12,336 17.50%
St. Cloud city 59,111 65,842 6,731 11.40% 10,988 16.70%
Eagan city 63,557 64,206 649 1.00% 13,340 20.80%
Woodbury city 46,463 61,961 15,498 33.40% 12,945 20.90%
2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Counties
County 2000 2010
Change 2000-2010
% Change 2000-2010
2010 Minority
Population%
Minority
Hennepin County 1,116,039 1,152,425 36,386 3.30% 325,755 28.30%
Ramsey County 511,202 508,640 -2,562 -0.50% 168,446 33.10%
Dakota County 355,904 398,552 42,648 12.00% 70,590 17.70%
Anoka County 298,084 330,844 32,760 11.00% 48,915 14.80%
Washington County 201,130 238,136 37,006 18.40% 34,025 14.30%
St. Louis County 200,528 200,226 -302 -0.20% 15,457 7.70%
Stearns County 133,167 150,642 17,475 13.10% 14,228 9.40%
Olmsted County 124,277 144,248 19,971 16.10% 23,900 16.60%
Scott County 89,498 129,928 40,430 45.20% 20,112 15.50%
Wright County 89,993 124,700 34,707 38.60% 7,914 6.30%
Total
Population
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Minority
Percentage
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Total
Change in
Population
by County
201037 counties lost
population; 50 gained.
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Change in Majority & Minority
Population by County 2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Hispanic/Latino
Black (alone)
Asian
American Indian
Minority
Percentage
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Population
Change by
County 2010
lost populationWhite non-Hispanic 50Hispanic Latino 0Black – non Hispanic 4Asian – non Hispanic 10
American Indian – 34
gained populationWhite non-Hispanic 37Hispanic Latino 86Black – non Hispanic 83
Asian – non Hispanic 77American Indian – 53
Hispanic/Latino
Black alone
Asian alone
American Indian
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Total
Enrollment
by County
2009-10Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for
45% of all enrollment.
The next three largest
counties in enrollment
(Washington, Sibley, and
Wright) account for 11%
of all students.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Low SES
Enrollment by
County
2009-10Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for 49%
of low SES enrollment.
The next four largest
counties in SES enrollment
(Sibley, Stearns, Olmsted,
and Washington) account
for 10% of low SES students.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Enrollment and Low SES* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10
*Defined as eligibility for free or reduced price meals.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Enrollment and LEP* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10
*Limited English proficiency.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total 1st
Quarter
Employment
by County
2010Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for 56%
of all jobs.
The next three largest
counties in employment
(Olmsted, St. Louis, and
Stearns) account for 10%
of all jobs.
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota – 2000 to 2010
Employment Sector 2010 2000 Change % Change
Total, All Industries (000000) 2,489,629 2,539,462 -49,833 -2.00%
Natural Resources and Mining (1011) 20,050 19,452 598 2.98%
Construction (1012) 77,987 106,138 -28,151 -36.10%
Manufacturing (1013) 283,941 390,345 -106,404 -37.47%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities (1021) 495,779 549,117 -53,338 -10.76%
Information (1022) 58,054 71,157 -13,103 -22.57%
Financial Activities (1023) 169,250 161,442 7,808 4.61%
Professional and Business Services (1024) 303,389 319,201 -15,812 -5.21%
Education and Health Services (1025) 644,238 506,016 138,222 21.46%
Leisure and Hospitality (1026) 235,845 221,452 14,393 6.10%
Other Services (1027) 81,052 86,787 -5,735 -7.08%
Public Administration (1028) 119,857 108,355 11,502 9.60%
Unclassified (1029) 182
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
• The total job loss for industries that lost
jobs was 220,000
– 120,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing
and information (both basic sector
industries)
• Losses were partly offset by gains of
138,000 in education and health care
(partly basic sector jobs)
Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota
Total
Employment
Change by
County
2000-2010Net loss of ~50,000 jobs
over the decade (1st
quarter 2000 to 1st
quarter 2010.)
47 counties lost jobs, 40
gained jobs.
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
Where Workers Live Who Work in Rochester Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Where Workers Live Who Work in MinneapolisCensus LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75%of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Where Workers Live Who Work in St. Louis County Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
2000 MN Population by Age and Sex
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Male
Female
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Minnesota Population 2030
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84Male
Female
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Population Change by Age2000 - 2030
Age
Group
2000
population
2030
population Change
%
Change
under 55 3,920,344 4,304,400 384,056 10%
55+ 999,135 1,964,000 964,865 97%
65+ 594,266 1,290,800 696,534 117%
75+ 298,441 602,100 303,659 102%
85+ 85,601 163,300 77,699 91%Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Minnesota 2000-2030 Change by Age
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,0000
to
4
5 t
o 9
10
to
14
15
to
19
20
to
24
25
to
29
30
to
34
35
to
39
40
to
44
45
to
49
50
to
54
55
to
59
60
to
64
65
to
69
70
to
74
75
to
79
80
to
84
85
+
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Implications of Aging Boom
• The population over 65 years of age will increase by 117% from 2000 to 2030.
• In 2000, ~ 20% of the 65+ population had at least one disability. If this proportion stays constant, the population over 65 with a disability will increase from 119,000 to 260,000.
• The workforce will change dramatically as boomers retire.
Where will the workers come from?
• In-migration
• Commuting (minor at the state level)
• Transfer to service sector from other sectors, as with farming in the early 20th
century
• Not females – labor force participation increased from ~50% in 1970 to ~85% now.
Sources of Population Change
Components of Change 2000-2009 Minnesota
Births 654,294
Deaths 348,464
Natural Increase 305,830
International net migration 106,388
Domestic net migration -43,962
Total Net Migration 62,426
Counties with more deaths than births 25
Counties with more out- than in- migration 52
Counties with positive domestic net migration 34
Counties with positive international net migration 79
Source: Census Estimates, 2009; http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-04.html
Citizenship and Year of Entry for Foreign Born (Census ACS, 2005-9)
Source: Census American Community Survey 2005-9 Table B05005; http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/aff_transition.html
Foreign Born
Naturalized U.S. citizen
Not a U.S. citizen
% Citizens
Total 339,119 144,347 194,772 43%
Entered 2000 or later 124,771 16,804 107,967 13%
Entered 1990 to 1999 110,689 49,815 60,874 45%
Entered 1980 to 1989 55,674 38,330 17,344 69%
Entered before 1980 47,985 39,398 8,587 82%
Implications
• Most in-migrants are persons of color
and/or foreign-born; many foreign-born
immigrants will need training and language
skills.
• The number and proportion of low income
children, concentrated in single-parent
households, is rising. We will need to
improve on how we educate this group.
• Whatever compounding factors influence
minority low income students must be
addressed and remedied.