Technology forecasting and planning

Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically

Scanning before forecasting & planning

Strategic technology planning

Forecasting technology Analyze and diagnose the environment Analyze and predict the market and

customer trend and change of trend Analyze the internal organization Sketch the vision & mission Re-design the organizational structure and

activity Execute the plan through operations

Output of planning A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue

Decision alternatives—courses of action Proposed schema—key entities & relations Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions

Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D

Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on the commercial design, module manufacturing

S-curved technology evolution

time

Perfo

rmanc

e

current

Future trends

Continuity/Discontinuity of technology

Perfo

rmance

S2

S1

t1 t2 t3

Migration possi

bility

& migratio

n route

The key attributes in technology forecasting

Performance growth Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy,

compactness Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm

shift or trajectory evolution Penetration share Diffusion rate

Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement

Breakthrough possibility & timing Value cluster

Critical technologies Categories

Material Advanced manufacturing Information & communication Biotech & living science Aerospace & transportation Energy & environmental ecology

User dimensions National critical technologies—long-term basic

research Business/commercial emerging technologies DOD’s Defense critical technology—specific

purposes and outer-space exploration

Technology forecasting methods

Surveillance Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for

quick adjustment & adoption Expert opinions

Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci Trend analysis

Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces

Modeling Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical

influencers Scenario analysis

Preview possible events and evolution patterns

Japan technology forecasts based on the Delphi method

Japan technology forecasts for core technologies

Technology road map

Time horizontal evolution Technological relatedness Application extension

e.g., Technology road map of mobile standard evolution

3G2.5G2G

cdmaOneIS-95A

cdmaOneIS-95A

GSMGSM

IS-95BIS-95B

PHSPHS

CDMA2000 1x IS-95C

CDMA2000 1x IS-95C

GPRSGPRS

HSCSDHSCSD

EDGEEDGE

WCDMAWCDMA

CDMA2000 1x EV DO

CDMA2000 1x EV DO

PDC-PPDC-P

PDCPDC

較少演化路徑主要演化路徑

CDMA2000 1x EV DV

CDMA2000 1x EV DV

e.g., Technology road map of telecom services

高

高

低

低

資訊

豐富

度

固網市話 1G

2G

3G

ADSL Cable modem

WLAN

VOIP

VOIP DIY資訊

Wi-Max

移動性

Technology landscape Scanning the important technology entities

Matter Energy Information

Mobility/Input

e.g., mega magents enhance the asorbability of tiny molecule

e.g., mega magents accelerate the friction-less transmission

e.g., mega magents trace micro magnetic particle sensitively

transformation

e.g., mega magents enhance plastic deformation

e.g., mega magents promote the efficiency of micro-motor

e.g., mega magents facilitate the change of electricity/ microwave into voice

Storage/ output

e.g., mega magents facilitate the refrigeration

e.g., mega magents possess energy durably

e.g., mega magents support MO disk for large volume of data

Technology audit model

1. Technology environment2. Technology classification3. Analyze the market and customer4. Evaluate the innovation process5. Analyze the value-added activity6. Analyze the technology pool &

technology acquisition

Technology environment

1. Leadership for technology championship & pioneering research

2. Phase with the business strategy3. Organizational level 4. Culture of learning, communication

and innovation 5. Staffing system for innovation

incentive

Technology classification

1. Product/process technology Internal/external source, base/core,

changes

2. Back-office technology Internal/external technologies of

administration, supporting, and logistics

3. Marketing technology Marketing systems Integrative communication of product &

service

Analyze the market and customer

1. Market requirement Assess the market

growth/capacity/segments Evaluate the marketing performance

2. Competitor position Strength/weakness comparison Benchmarking

Evaluate the innovation process

1. Idea formation Intrepreneurship Entrepreneurship

2. Technology generation Technology push—technology inspiration Market pull—market insight

3. Idea fulfillment Time to market, break-even point

Analyze the value-added activity

1. R&D Team management, investment portfolio, risk

management, experience effect, synergy effect

2. Operation Production/marketing enhancement

3. Environmentalism Investigate user’s behavior of product

disposal Green product & continuous business concept

Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition

1. Acquisition methods and performance Internal development External reciprocate collaboration in

research/production/marketing Investment in the stick share

2. Technology transfer Transfer procedures Internal/external staff rotation Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how

3. Profit exploitation Sunk cost analysis Technology archive

4. Technology protection Assess the IPR regime

Planning according to TLC

time

Perfo

rmanc

e

current

Selective

divestment

emerging growing mature decline

surveillance

Selective

investment

Syste

mic

establis

h

Core

technology

Base

technology

Phase-in

technology

Integration of business strategy & technology strategy

Business segment & position

Technology segment & position

Strategy audit

Reviewing Business

environment

Reviewing Technolog

y environme

nt

Impacted

business

Impacted

technology

Strategic alternative formation

Strategic choice & resource

deployment

Strategy execution

Strategic control

B-tech approach

The role of CTO Forecast technology and analyze the

business goals Develop the corporate technology capability Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity

of technology portfolio Develop informal and formal alliance

network of technology Execute technology auditing Technology transfer and protection As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage

of technology and proactive acquisition

ASSETS structured thinking about technology

Assess current situation gap analysis

Specify technology strategy Expected future

Select technology portfolio Prioritize the candidates

Execute technology investments Establish the task force

Transfer results for deployment Configuration for profit

Secure long-term position Evaluation and learning for capability

Extended readings Van Wyk, Rias J. (1997), “Strategic Technology

Scanning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55, pp.21-38.

Van Wyk, Rias J., G. Haour, and S. G. Japp (1991), “Permanent Magnets: A Technological Analysis,” R&D Management, Vol.21, No. 4, pp.301-308.

Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson (1985), Models for Innovation Diffusion, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage University Press.