Technology Forecasting

Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 1

TechnologyForecasting

Introduction to Technology Forecasting


Lecture 1

What is Technology? The Evolution of Technology Technology Forecasting Technology Forecasting Taxonomies Objectives of Technology Forecasting The Need for Experts Dr. DeYong on NGT and Delphi


What is Technology?

There is much ambiguity in the use of the term “technology”

In one sense technology embodies the totality of the way we do things. Webster’s 7th Collegiate Dictionary defines

technology as “the totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human subsistence and comfort”.


What is Technology?

“Western Technology” refers to the totality of the way things are done in the Western nations of the world.

This is not the way we will use the term. In another sense, technology has a more

restricted definition “the tools, techniques, and procedures used

to accomplish some desired human purpose”. For example, metal cutting technology or

nuclear power technology.


What is Technology?

This more restricted definition is more suitable for our purposes.

Technology includes not only goods but also services

Technology is not restricted to hardware, it also may includes “know-how” and “software”


The Evolution of Technology

Prior to the 19th century technology could be differentiated from other

human activities by its direct involvement with the material world

Persons involved in technology shaped and altered their physical environment

Other forms of activities, like politics, were clearly distinguishable from technology

Technological activities did not have particularly high status; artisans were considered inferior

contemplative activities were glorified



By the end of the 19th Century Physical sciences began to influence

technology laboratories were a source of invention scientific grounding added credibility

to technology Science and Technology became

partners to the benefit of both



During the early 20th Century Large laboratories emerged; often

they were mission oriented Science and technology became

institutionalized as a means to achieve National and corporate objectives



Post World War II Advances in applied mathematics

lead to the emergence of operations research, information theory, and systems engineering

In conjunction with the growth of computing power, the information revolution was sparked



At the end of the 20th Century the line distinguishing technology from other

activities has become blurred technology is becoming a measure of

national power Technology leads to competitive advantage

aerospace, chemicals & plastics, petrochemicals drugs, electronics, engines, machines, computers, radio, tv, telecommunications


Technology Forecasting

Three definitions of technology forecasting from leading experts

Technology forecasting is A group of techniques that predict the

direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technological advances

Vanston


Technology Forecasting

A prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures, or techniques

Martino

Anticipation of the character, intensity, and timing of changes in technology

Porter


Can Technology be Forecast?

Three rationales support the claim that technology can be forecast Examination of the historical growth of

technological capability (speed, power, etc.) shows surprisingly ordered patterns

continuity seems to be the norm discontinuities are rare

This leads to trend extrapolation techniques



Technological development responds to opportunity and need

It is also sensitive to allocation of resources and social control through regulation

By monitoring influencing factors, progress can be anticipated

This leads correlation techniques



Understanding the process of technological innovation aids in successful prediction of technological development

Orderly progression of emergence New knowledge acquired Technology emerges from lab Technology is field tested Technology is commercialized Technology is widely adopted


Technology Forecasting in Context

Technology forecasting has not attained the level of “laws”

It is still more art than science inherent complexity of the systems social, political, economic, ethical

influences lack of significant data bases

Experts are required


Technology Forecasting Taxonomies

There are multiple ways to classify technology forecasting techniques Exploratory vs. Normative

Exploratory techniques seek to predict the state of a technology area in the future

Normative techniques seek to determine courses of action to achieve a postulated future state



Porter, et al. suggest Direct

directly forecast parameters of the technology

Correlative forecast growth or change by forecasting

elements in the technology’s context Structural

formally consider interactions between the technology and its context



Kostoff suggests: Bibliometric or literature based methods

data mining from large databases followed by application of visualization and analysis tools

Workshop methods groups of subject matter experts who interact

under the auspices of nominal group techniques (e.g., the Delphi procedure) to develop scenarios and forecasts the evolution of technology



Vanston suggests: Surveillance

Passive observational techniques Projective

Future will be like the past Normative

future needs drive technological development Integrative

advances are driven by relationships


Objectives for Technology Forecasting

The first step in a technology forecasting project is to determine the purpose the forecast is to serve.

Vanston suggests five purposes Projections of the rates at which new

technologies will replace older ones Important to companies dependent on the

old as well as the new technology



Assistance in the Management of Technical Research and Development

Forecasting the technology emergence process can facilitate allocation of R&D resources

Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology Under Development

Forecasting the commercial value of a technology in the development process



Identification and Evaluation of New Products or Processes that May Present the Organization with New Opportunities or Threats

Forecasting new business opportunities or threats to present markets



Analysis of New Technical Developments that Might Change Organizational Strategies or Operations

Forecasting technology changes that might change the internal operations of the organization itself.


The Need for Experts

Gathering and analyzing the opinions of experts is an important activity.

Three types of experts are valuable in technology forecasting

generalists with a spread of interests and perceptions

persons with deep knowledge of the area persons whose present or future actions

may be affected


What’s Next

Next, we will review some material developed by Dr. Camille DeYong, who is an expert in nominal group techniques and the Delphi process, to see how these techniques can be useful with respect to technology forecasting applications.

But First…...


Assignment 1

Assignment 1 is available on the web Identify a technology important to your

business Identify search criteria Identify search sources Conduct Search on at least two sources

Identify 3 key articles and 3 leading experts

Due in two weeks

Technology Forecasting

Documents

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