Ag4impact.orgTel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry

Sir Gordon ConwayProfessor of International Development

Centre for Environmental PolicyImperial College

Sustainable Intensification is the Answer to Global Food Insecurity

IFPRI and USAID AlumniWashington DC

September 20, 2016

Financial

Food security

Water

Civil Strife

Climate Change

Energy Supply

EcosystemFunctions

‘A Perfect Storm’

The Global Crises

Imperial College, London

Migration Moral Compass

Today

Imperial College, London

Threats and Opportunities

Imperial College, London

240 million in Sub Saharan Africa, 30% of Popn

360 million in India, 30% of Popn

Global Hunger

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

0

10

20

30

40

50

World East Africa Central Africa West Africa

1990-92

2014-16

Prevalence of undernourishment (%)Source: Fan based on FAO data

18.6

10.9

47.2

31.533.5

41.3

24.2

9.6

Hunger persists in Africa despite progress

Imperial College, London

Child malnutrition

Globally 1 in 3 under age 5In Africa it is over 40%Children are under height for their age

and suffer from stunted development and possible blindness and death Imperial College,

London

A Single Mother Farming a Hillside in Western Kenya

Mrs Namarunda

Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London

Survival line

Months

1

2

3

2 31 4

WeedsPests

Drought

An Insecure Farm

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Imperial College, London

Targeted fertilisers

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Southern Ethiopia

Imperial College, London

Survival line

Months

1

2

3

2 31 4

WeedsPests & diseases

DroughtSoilFertility

>2 t/haResilient Crops

A Secure Farm

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

The Answer

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Sustainable Intensification

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Africa has to Intensify

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Intensification

We need

More food and other agricultural productsMore nutritious foodsHigher farm incomesGreater diversity of production

On the same amount of land or lessWith the same amount or less of water

Producing More with Less Imperial College, London

Land and Water is in short supply and degrading

Imperial College, London

But it has to be sustainable

• With efficient and prudent use of inputs• Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers

• Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases• Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2

• While increasing natural capital and environmental services• Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests

• Strengthening Resilience

• Reducing environmental impact

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Global Warming

Met Office Hadley Centre, UK and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKImperial College, London

RCP2.6 - very low GHG emissions leading to about 20C above preindustrialRCP8.5 - increasing GHG emissions on current trajectory leading to 3-40C above pre-industrialIPPCC WGIIAR5 Technical Summary

Future Climate Temperatures

Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London

MORE THAN 5% REDUCTION IN LENGTH OF GROWING PERIOD

Average Annual Max Temp > 300C

Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

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Climate already changingAfrica

Imperial College, London

Precision Farming

Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015

Real Time Kinetic System- accuracy to 2-3cm © Claas

Imperial College, London

Precision Farming

Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015

In-row Robocrop weeding©Cranfield University

Harper Adams University Imperial College,

London

Microdosing in Niger

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Multiple approaches

Ecology

Genetics

Socio-economics

plus IntegratedImperial College, London

Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices

e.g.AgroforestryIntegrated Pest

ManagementOrganic farming

Sustainable Ecological Intensification

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Africa’s soilsdegrading rapidly

For SSA land degradation hotspots affect 26% of the land area

The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affecting 180 million people

Imperial College, London

Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF Discussion Papers 193)

Imperial College, London

Conservation FarmingZambia

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Agricultural mitigation

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Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

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Agroforestry

Imperial College, London

Putting Carbon back2-4 tons C /haPlus 10-20 tons standing crop

Faidherbia

Imperial College, London

The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs)

Sustainable Genetic Intensification

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Hybrid Rice

Developing plants with a combination of traits promoting sustainable production

Imperial College, London

Golden Rice Orange-Fleshed

Sweet Potato

Blight resistant potatoes

Nutrients and disease

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

$500 million losses a year in Uganda

Academia Sinica provided sweet pepper gene

Successfully transferred to bananas

In Ugandan field trials

Entirely government funded

Bananas resistant to wiltUganda

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Farmer Associations

Cooperatives

Cereal Banks

Contract Farms

Outgrowers

SustainableSocio-Economic Intensification

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Sustainably intensify the links between farmersand farmers and value chains

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African Farmers in the Digital Age

Imperial College, London

Kofi AnnanGordon ConwaySam Dryden

Input MarketsInput Markets

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Output marketsWarehouses

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

URBAN LIVELIHOODS

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL MARKETS

ASSUMED RISK

FOOD PROCESSING

YOUTH

ADDED VALUE

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

REGIONALMARKETS

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

FOOD PRODUCTION

VALU

E CH

AIN

S

LAND TENURE

BUILD RESILIENCE

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INSURANCE

Value Chains

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READY TO EAT

MILLET MEALS ON THE SHELF

TRADITIONAL MILLET BASED MEALS

HOME BASEDMILLET PROCESSING

READY TO COOK

MILLET PRODCUTSON THE SHELF

Transformed Millet Value Chain

Source: OusmaneBadiane

Imperial College, London

POPULATION GROWTH TO 2050

World

Africa

Source: UN Population Division, 2012

Population of Tropics will exceed rest of world by 2050Roughly half of the extra people will be in Sub-Saharan Africa

Imperial College, Imperial College, London

Women Food Processors

Imperial College, London

Producing snacksSeseco

in Uganda

Imperial College, London

Maize Cob ShellerUganda

Youthful entrepreneurs

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

The total value of agribusiness value chains is estimated at 5 trillion USDSource: KPMG (2014)

Insurance

UK £6Billion lost every year due to Supply chain disruption

Dr Erik Chavez winners-project.org Imperial College, London

WINnERS Consortium Imperial College

World Food ProgramIFC, Swiss Re, Willis, RabobankSAB Miller, Bayer, Syngenta, YaraSainsburysAGRAEuropean Universities

Today

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Resilience

Imperial College, London

Farmer Innovation in theSunderbansIndia

Resilient livelihoods

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Resilient livelihoods

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Resilient livelihoods

Imperial College, London

Imperial College, London

Some questions

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How do we evaluate the performance and outcome of SI technologies and policy interventions?

How do we upscale those that are successful?

What are the appropriate political, economic and social contexts for success?

Imperial College, London

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The Institute for the Future of Food and Nutrition Systems

Imperial College, London