Sustainable intensification is the answer to global food insecurity (sir gordon conway)
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Transcript of Sustainable intensification is the answer to global food insecurity (sir gordon conway)
Ag4impact.orgTel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry
Sir Gordon ConwayProfessor of International Development
Centre for Environmental PolicyImperial College
Sustainable Intensification is the Answer to Global Food Insecurity
IFPRI and USAID AlumniWashington DC
September 20, 2016
Financial
Food security
Water
Civil Strife
Climate Change
Energy Supply
EcosystemFunctions
‘A Perfect Storm’
The Global Crises
Imperial College, London
Migration Moral Compass
Today
Imperial College, London
Threats and Opportunities
Imperial College, London
240 million in Sub Saharan Africa, 30% of Popn
360 million in India, 30% of Popn
Global Hunger
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
0
10
20
30
40
50
World East Africa Central Africa West Africa
1990-92
2014-16
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)Source: Fan based on FAO data
18.6
10.9
47.2
31.533.5
41.3
24.2
9.6
Hunger persists in Africa despite progress
Imperial College, London
Child malnutrition
Globally 1 in 3 under age 5In Africa it is over 40%Children are under height for their age
and suffer from stunted development and possible blindness and death Imperial College,
London
A Single Mother Farming a Hillside in Western Kenya
Mrs Namarunda
Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London
Survival line
Months
1
2
3
2 31 4
WeedsPests
Drought
An Insecure Farm
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Targeted fertilisers
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Southern Ethiopia
Imperial College, London
Survival line
Months
1
2
3
2 31 4
WeedsPests & diseases
DroughtSoilFertility
>2 t/haResilient Crops
A Secure Farm
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
The Answer
Imperial College, London
Sustainable Intensification
Imperial College, London
Africa has to Intensify
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Intensification
We need
More food and other agricultural productsMore nutritious foodsHigher farm incomesGreater diversity of production
On the same amount of land or lessWith the same amount or less of water
Producing More with Less Imperial College, London
Land and Water is in short supply and degrading
Imperial College, London
But it has to be sustainable
• With efficient and prudent use of inputs• Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers
• Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases• Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2
• While increasing natural capital and environmental services• Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests
• Strengthening Resilience
• Reducing environmental impact
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Global Warming
Met Office Hadley Centre, UK and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKImperial College, London
RCP2.6 - very low GHG emissions leading to about 20C above preindustrialRCP8.5 - increasing GHG emissions on current trajectory leading to 3-40C above pre-industrialIPPCC WGIIAR5 Technical Summary
Future Climate Temperatures
Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London
MORE THAN 5% REDUCTION IN LENGTH OF GROWING PERIOD
Average Annual Max Temp > 300C
Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
Imperial College, London
Climate already changingAfrica
Imperial College, London
Precision Farming
Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015
Real Time Kinetic System- accuracy to 2-3cm © Claas
Imperial College, London
Precision Farming
Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015
In-row Robocrop weeding©Cranfield University
Harper Adams University Imperial College,
London
Microdosing in Niger
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Multiple approaches
Ecology
Genetics
Socio-economics
plus IntegratedImperial College, London
Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices
e.g.AgroforestryIntegrated Pest
ManagementOrganic farming
Sustainable Ecological Intensification
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Africa’s soilsdegrading rapidly
For SSA land degradation hotspots affect 26% of the land area
The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affecting 180 million people
Imperial College, London
Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF Discussion Papers 193)
Imperial College, London
Conservation FarmingZambia
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Agricultural mitigation
Imperial College, London
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
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Agroforestry
Imperial College, London
Putting Carbon back2-4 tons C /haPlus 10-20 tons standing crop
Faidherbia
Imperial College, London
The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs)
Sustainable Genetic Intensification
Imperial College, London
Hybrid Rice
Developing plants with a combination of traits promoting sustainable production
Imperial College, London
Golden Rice Orange-Fleshed
Sweet Potato
Blight resistant potatoes
Nutrients and disease
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
$500 million losses a year in Uganda
Academia Sinica provided sweet pepper gene
Successfully transferred to bananas
In Ugandan field trials
Entirely government funded
Bananas resistant to wiltUganda
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Farmer Associations
Cooperatives
Cereal Banks
Contract Farms
Outgrowers
SustainableSocio-Economic Intensification
Imperial College, London
Sustainably intensify the links between farmersand farmers and value chains
Imperial College, London
African Farmers in the Digital Age
Imperial College, London
Kofi AnnanGordon ConwaySam Dryden
Input MarketsInput Markets
Imperial College, London
Output marketsWarehouses
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
URBAN LIVELIHOODS
RURAL DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL MARKETS
ASSUMED RISK
FOOD PROCESSING
YOUTH
ADDED VALUE
RURAL LIVELIHOODS
REGIONALMARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
FOOD PRODUCTION
VALU
E CH
AIN
S
LAND TENURE
BUILD RESILIENCE
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INSURANCE
Value Chains
Imperial College, London
READY TO EAT
MILLET MEALS ON THE SHELF
TRADITIONAL MILLET BASED MEALS
HOME BASEDMILLET PROCESSING
READY TO COOK
MILLET PRODCUTSON THE SHELF
Transformed Millet Value Chain
Source: OusmaneBadiane
Imperial College, London
POPULATION GROWTH TO 2050
World
Africa
Source: UN Population Division, 2012
Population of Tropics will exceed rest of world by 2050Roughly half of the extra people will be in Sub-Saharan Africa
Imperial College, Imperial College, London
Women Food Processors
Imperial College, London
Producing snacksSeseco
in Uganda
Imperial College, London
Maize Cob ShellerUganda
Youthful entrepreneurs
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
The total value of agribusiness value chains is estimated at 5 trillion USDSource: KPMG (2014)
Insurance
UK £6Billion lost every year due to Supply chain disruption
Dr Erik Chavez winners-project.org Imperial College, London
WINnERS Consortium Imperial College
World Food ProgramIFC, Swiss Re, Willis, RabobankSAB Miller, Bayer, Syngenta, YaraSainsburysAGRAEuropean Universities
Today
Imperial College, London
Resilience
Imperial College, London
Farmer Innovation in theSunderbansIndia
Resilient livelihoods
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Resilient livelihoods
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Resilient livelihoods
Imperial College, London
Imperial College, London
Some questions
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How do we evaluate the performance and outcome of SI technologies and policy interventions?
How do we upscale those that are successful?
What are the appropriate political, economic and social contexts for success?
Imperial College, London
www.ag4impact.orgwww.canwefeedtheworld.org
twitter:@ag4impact facebook: one billion hungry
The Institute for the Future of Food and Nutrition Systems
Imperial College, London