Photo: Mark Holsman

Kirstin Holsman1

kirstin.holsman@noaa.gov

Suboptimal thermal conditions and spatial

mismatch between predators and prey and may

limit walleye pollock growth under climate change

Elizabeth Siddon1, Kerim Aydin1, Anne

Hollowed1, Jim Ianelli1, Andre Punt5

1. NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center

2. NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

PICES 2016

The ACLIM team

Kirstin Holsman Alan HaynieAnne Hollowed Wei ChengAlbert Hermann

Darren Pilcher Kerim Aydin Stephen Kasperski

Amanda Faig

Jim Ianelli Ingrid Spies

Andre Punt

Cody Szuwalski

Jonathan Reum Michael Dalton Paul Spencer Tom Wilderbuer William Stockhausen

5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR5)IPCC 5th Assessment Report

“STATUS QUO” SCENARIOBEST CASE SCENARIO

4 billion $ per yr

4 million tons per yr

50% of all US fish landed

Alaska-wide Fisheries

4 billion $ per yr

4 million tons per yr

50% of all US fish landed

2 billion $ per yr

2 million tons per yr

40% of all US fish landedBering Sea

Alaska-wide Fisheries

Bering Sea Fisheries

6

kirstin.holsman@noaa.gov Slide courtesy of J. Duffy-Anderson

7

kirstin.holsman@noaa.govSiddon et al. (2013) PLOS ONE 8(12): Article #: e84526.

8

kirstin.holsman@noaa.gov

CoolWarm

Siddon et al. (2013) PLOS ONE 8(12): Article #: e84526.

9

kirstin.holsman@noaa.govSiddon et al. (2013) PLOS ONE 8(12): Article #: e84526.

Photo: Mark Holsman

Physical & NPZ modeling

Dr. Al Hermann Dr. Wei Cheng

JISAO/UW and NOAA/PMEL

IPCC global projections drive regional model

(dynamical downscaling)

IPCC model (MIROC) Regional model (Bering10K)

IPCC global atmosphere provides surface forcing IPCC global ocean provides boundary conditions

Bering10K validation:Bottom Temp (deg C) summer 2009

DATA MODEL

RCP 8.5

SRES

A1B

RCP 4.5

“Business as usual”

Carbon Emission Scenarios

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14Part 1 Overview Presenter: Anne Hollowed

Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature

GFDL

MIROC

CESM

Hindcast

Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature

GFDL 4.5

MIROC 8.5

Hindcast

Survey Observations: Bottom Temperature

Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature

GFDL 4.5

MIROC 8.5

Hindcast

2016

Holsman et al. in prep

Pollock Bioenergetics model

Bioenergetics

projections

x10

GFDL (rcp 4.5 & 8.5)

Pollock Bioenergetics

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20

Temperature

1 gram fish

10 gram fish

Rat

e (g

/g/d

)

G = C-(R+F+U)

Ciannelli et al. 1998

Pollock Bioenergetics

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21

Ciannelli et al. 1998

Respiration

EgestionExcretion

Growth

G = C-(R+F+U)R

ate

(g/g

/d)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22

Bottom Temp hindcast (19712012)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23

Bottom Temp Projections (20062086)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24

Bottom Temp Projections (20062086)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25

SST Projections (20062086)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26

Scope for growth (20062086)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27

Mean annual growth index

GFDL 4.5

MIROC 8.5

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28

Fall Energetic Condition of Age-0 Walleye Pollock Predicts Survival and Recruitment

Success

Contributed by Ron Heintz, Elizabeth Siddon, and Ed Farley

EBS Ecosystem Considerations Report 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29

Fall Energetic Condition of Age-0 Walleye Pollock Predicts Survival and Recruitment

Success

Contributed by Ron Heintz, Elizabeth Siddon, and Ed Farley

EBS Ecosystem Considerations Report 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30

Mean annual growth index

GFDL 4.5

MIROC 8.5

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31

Mean annual available food

GFDL 4.5

MIROC 8.5

Photo: Mark Holsman

Summary• Projected declines in growth potential (8.5)• Projected declines in available food (8.5)• Spatial mismatch & thermal conditions may

drive fish N and near-shore

Photo: Mark Holsman

Thanks!

“Behind these numbers lies, of course, an infinity

of movements and of destinies.”

– von Bertalanffy 1938

…and of people!

FATE: Fisheries & the EnvironmentSAAM: Stock Assessment Analytical MethodsS&T: Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity

NPRB & BSIERP TeamACLIM TeamNOAA IEA Program