Suboptimal thermal conditions and spatial mismatch...
33
Photo: Mark Holsman Kirstin Holsman 1 [email protected] Suboptimal thermal conditions and spatial mismatch between predators and prey and may limit walleye pollock growth under climate change Elizabeth Siddon 1 , Kerim Aydin 1 , Anne Hollowed 1 , Jim Ianelli 1 , Andre Punt 5 1. NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2. NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory PICES 2016
Transcript of Suboptimal thermal conditions and spatial mismatch...
Photo: Mark Holsman
Kirstin Holsman1
Suboptimal thermal conditions and spatial
mismatch between predators and prey and may
limit walleye pollock growth under climate change
Elizabeth Siddon1, Kerim Aydin1, Anne
Hollowed1, Jim Ianelli1, Andre Punt5
1. NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
2. NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
PICES 2016
The ACLIM team
Kirstin Holsman Alan HaynieAnne Hollowed Wei ChengAlbert Hermann
Darren Pilcher Kerim Aydin Stephen Kasperski
Amanda Faig
Jim Ianelli Ingrid Spies
Andre Punt
Cody Szuwalski
Jonathan Reum Michael Dalton Paul Spencer Tom Wilderbuer William Stockhausen
5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR5)IPCC 5th Assessment Report
“STATUS QUO” SCENARIOBEST CASE SCENARIO
4 billion $ per yr
4 million tons per yr
50% of all US fish landed
Alaska-wide Fisheries
4 billion $ per yr
4 million tons per yr
50% of all US fish landed
2 billion $ per yr
2 million tons per yr
40% of all US fish landedBering Sea
Alaska-wide Fisheries
Bering Sea Fisheries
Photo: Mark Holsman
Physical & NPZ modeling
Dr. Al Hermann Dr. Wei Cheng
JISAO/UW and NOAA/PMEL
IPCC global projections drive regional model
(dynamical downscaling)
IPCC model (MIROC) Regional model (Bering10K)
IPCC global atmosphere provides surface forcing IPCC global ocean provides boundary conditions
Bering10K validation:Bottom Temp (deg C) summer 2009
DATA MODEL
RCP 8.5
SRES
A1B
RCP 4.5
“Business as usual”
Carbon Emission Scenarios
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14Part 1 Overview Presenter: Anne Hollowed
Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature
GFDL
MIROC
CESM
Hindcast
Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature
GFDL 4.5
MIROC 8.5
Hindcast
Survey Observations: Bottom Temperature
Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature
GFDL 4.5
MIROC 8.5
Hindcast
2016
Holsman et al. in prep
Pollock Bioenergetics model
Bioenergetics
projections
x10
GFDL (rcp 4.5 & 8.5)
Pollock Bioenergetics
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20
Temperature
1 gram fish
10 gram fish
Rat
e (g
/g/d
)
G = C-(R+F+U)
Ciannelli et al. 1998
Pollock Bioenergetics
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
Ciannelli et al. 1998
Respiration
EgestionExcretion
Growth
G = C-(R+F+U)R
ate
(g/g
/d)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22
Bottom Temp hindcast (19712012)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23
Bottom Temp Projections (20062086)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24
Bottom Temp Projections (20062086)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
SST Projections (20062086)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
Scope for growth (20062086)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27
Mean annual growth index
GFDL 4.5
MIROC 8.5
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
Fall Energetic Condition of Age-0 Walleye Pollock Predicts Survival and Recruitment
Success
Contributed by Ron Heintz, Elizabeth Siddon, and Ed Farley
EBS Ecosystem Considerations Report 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
Fall Energetic Condition of Age-0 Walleye Pollock Predicts Survival and Recruitment
Success
Contributed by Ron Heintz, Elizabeth Siddon, and Ed Farley
EBS Ecosystem Considerations Report 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30
Mean annual growth index
GFDL 4.5
MIROC 8.5
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31
Mean annual available food
GFDL 4.5
MIROC 8.5
Photo: Mark Holsman
Summary• Projected declines in growth potential (8.5)• Projected declines in available food (8.5)• Spatial mismatch & thermal conditions may
drive fish N and near-shore
Photo: Mark Holsman
Thanks!
“Behind these numbers lies, of course, an infinity
of movements and of destinies.”
– von Bertalanffy 1938
…and of people!
FATE: Fisheries & the EnvironmentSAAM: Stock Assessment Analytical MethodsS&T: Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
NPRB & BSIERP TeamACLIM TeamNOAA IEA Program
