Steve_raney@cities21.org Efficient Cities: Easy on the CO 2 and H 2 O Less CO 2 less sea level...

steve_raney@cities21.org

Efficient Cities: Easy on the CO2 and H2O

• Less CO2 less sea level rise, more wetlands• Less driving less breakpad dust, oil runoff• Less asphalt more pervious better H2O

quality.

3 Stage Path to Sustainability• Can’t go straight there• 1) Populist: (convenient) Consciousness raising, light

bulbs, Prius, green building– Low flow toilets, gray water recycling

• 2) Fundamental: 2020. (inconvenient) Efficient cities. Sustainable-savvy voters, government restructuring. – Fewer lawns – Less human land expansion less watershed trashing

• 3) Profound: 2050. 80% reduction, less people, accurate pricing, renewable NRG, vegetarian, local food, anti-materialism, lower GNP, social cooperation/enlightenment, etc– Less livestock waste runoff, less fertilizer (fewer ocean

dead zones/phytoplantkton).

Bay Area: 2MM more lousy humans

• Well, jobs are coming. Homes may sprawl. – Ag residential, habitat ag

• 2,000 square feet asphalt for each car

• Oakland downtown is booming, but Sunday Chron & Merc new homes section? disaster.

Million BTU per Year

SuburbanAvg (240

SuburbanGreen (164 MBTU)

Urban Avg (143 MBTU)

Urban Green (89 MBTU)

UrbanMultifamilyGreen (62

Single Family Household Type

Transportation UseHousehold Use

Family Energy Consumption – driving matters mostOakland vs. Palo Alto vs. Tracy (work in Palo Alto)

Efficient Human Settlement Patterns• Reducing driving is BIG, BIG, BIG

– Prius is good, but not sufficient

• For each person, minimize the distances in the triangle below (units: miles feet)

• Benefits: more happiness, less carbon, lower cost of living, better health, etc

• Solution: fix Palo Alto at a profit, spread like virus– Must innovate, need better tools.

Home Job

Activities

Culture: Low Miles Community

• Exploit behavior research

• Non auto-centric culture

• Good Deeds (make it easy)

• EBay’s online community phenomenon– Make friends, achieve social status– Self polices bad behavior

• “Communities of Practice” – expertise around a problem domain (green commutes).

Low Miles Community (2)• Big new residential complex• Everyone signs low mileage pledge

– Entry condition to obtain housing– People are “self-consistent”

• Manufacture a tipping point– Currently, it’s often dumb to be green– Positive peer pressure

• Problem-solving think tank. Online & in person– Carpool to grocery store– Ex: Biking learning curve: route, gear, defensive

• People love to share such self-discovered expertise

– Delivery services, etc.

New PRT: last mile solution

Comprehensive, Integrated MobilityDoor to Door

Centralized Cars:share, rent, ride home

Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services

first mile Train

first mile Bus

Bike, scooter, Segway

Flexpool

•Web/wireless coordination•Supportive policy context•Scale!

Short carpool pick up

first mileLong carpool

•Improved match-making•Shared parking, nuride

PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips

Move closer to your job:Traffic Reducing Housing

• Priority access to new housing for green commuters– Waiting list

• The most cost-effective traffic reduction policy (ever). SF San Jose (swap)– Or, “Proximate Commute” for Starbucks workers.

Traffic Reducing Hsng Examples• Santa Barbara: 42 affordable apts

– 40 block walkable, mixed-use downtown – Priorities: no cars, work downtown– Result: TWENTY cars

• Stanford West Apts: 515 apts– Shuttle bus, biking, hostile to cars– 396 Stanford, 96 hospital, 14 Palo Alto, 9 long commutes– 10% short-commute rent discount – 2.6 MM less VMT/CO2 lbs./yr

• Redwood City: 800 mkt rate condos– 1 mi from dwntn, bike path– Cities21 victory– 4 months: green commutes

• 1MM units: 3MM tons/yr.

Efficient Cities: Easy on the CO2 and H2O

• 2MM new Bay Area residents

Steve_raney@cities21.org Efficient Cities: Easy on the CO 2 and H 2 O Less CO 2 less sea level...

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