Post on 28-Mar-2015
Risk Management or Do I Feel Lucky?
Jack J. Ference, PMP®, PMI-RMP®
Jack.ference@dot.gov
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
2October 26, 2009
Presentation Outline• Project Introduction and Background • Risk Management Process
– Risk Management Planning– Risk Identification– Risk Analysis
• Results from Process• Benefits and Lessons Learned• Questions
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
3October 26, 2009
What this Project is About
Photo clips from abcNews.com
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
4October 26, 2009
Project Challenges• “Low to Moderate” risk project• Basic type of work had been done before,
however, challenges included:– Completing project in four-year timeframe– Executing two concurrent field tests – Agreement upon system requirements/tests– Integration/testing of three standalone functions– Development of new capabilities– Collecting driving data in “down” economy – Varied project management culture within team
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
5October 26, 2009
Project Timeline
Nov 2005 Nov 2006 Nov 2008 May 2010June 2008 Feb 2009
EngineeringDevelopment
Vehicles
Prototype Vehicles
Pilot Vehicles
Extended Pilot Test
FOTData
Collection
Phase II – 24 monthsPhase I – 30 months
Project Information
Five-year Cooperative Agreement (80%-20%)
“Best-efforts” cost reimbursable agreement
Federal Funds $25.6M – Private Funds $7.4M
Other Federal Partners – $7.9M Support Staff – $1.9M
Phase I – $28.3M Phase II – $14.5M
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
6October 26, 2009
Risk Management Process
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
Monitor and Control Risks
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
7October 26, 2009
Risk Management Planning• Deciding your approach – how formal?• Scaling effort to meet project needs/budget• Showing value of process and obtaining buy-in • Acknowledging training needs• Writing, communicating and following the plan
– Developing probability and impact definitions– Writing actionable risk statements– Selecting tools and processes– All needed to ensure consistency
• Following up, making adjustments, repeating processes
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
8October 26, 2009
Probability and Impact Matrix
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
9October 26, 2009
Risk Identification• Phase II statement of work, schedule and
project budget• Phase I and past experience• Tools and Techniques
– Adobe® Acrobat fill-able Form/Workshop – Risk Breakdown Structure– Project-specific checklist– Interviewing
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
10October 26, 2009
Risk Identification Worksheet
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
11October 26, 2009
Risk Register – Part I
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
12October 26, 2009
Risk Rating Form
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Consensus Risk Rating
Name Prob Impact Matrix Pos RiskReviewer 1 1 2 2 LOWReviewer 2 3 3 13 MEDReviewer 3 2 3 8 LOWReviewer 4 2 4 9 MEDReviewer 5 2 3 8 LOWReviewer 6 2 2 7 LOWReviewer 7 1 2 2 LOWReviewer 8 2 2 7 LOWReviewer 9 2 3 8 LOWReviewer 10 0 NRReviewer 11 0 NRReviewer 12 0 NRReviewer 13 2 3 8 LOWReviewer 14 0 NR
Mean 1.9 2.7 7 LOW
Risk Level Consensus LOW
Risk # 069
IF prototype vehicles are not produced to specifications in time for the EPT, THEN the EPT will be delayed or compromised.
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Risk Register – Part II
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
15October 26, 2009
Risk Response Worksheet
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
16October 26, 2009
Risk Radar®
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Individual Risk Summary
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Risk Radar® Reports
9 8 8
37 36 3639
339
83 85 85 89 9142
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct '08 Nov '08 Dec '08 Jan '09 Feb '09 Mar '09
High Medium Low
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Risk Radar® Reports cont’d
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Results from Process• Risks avoided
– Impact of model year change – Oct 2006• Identified risks realized
– High false alarm rate for heavy truck platform – Oct 2007– Impact of economy on conducting field test – Nov 2008-present
• Unidentified risks realized– Truck manufacturer leaves project – Aug 2007– Test track closes abruptly – Nov 2007– Phase II approval delayed – Dec 2007 (unknown-unknown)– Lead S/W engineer detained in China – Dec 2007– Vehicle build cost over-run and schedule delay – Feb 2009– Lead IT developer becomes ill while in India – Mar-Apr 2009– Software development cost over-run – Apr 2009– Supplier/Developer in Chapter 11 bankruptcy – May 2009
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
21October 26, 2009
Benefits of Formal Process• Improved project focus and team
communications and coordination• Provided framework for discussing project
issues with emphasis on problem solving• Brought the whole team together, creating
a broader view of the project• Discussion of risk became a regular part of
program reviews
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
22October 26, 2009
Lessons Learned• To improve chance of success, risk management
effort needs:– A “Process Owner”, team buy-in and cooperation– To be scaled to project needs, not be a burden– Consistent, open and honest process that is repeated
• Tendency to use past experience to judge risk and overlook associated new risks:– Vehicle build (cost over-run, schedule delay)– Database development delays affected other efforts– Data synchronization issues impacted test schedule
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
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Resources1. MITRE Risk Management website:
http://www.mitre.org/work/sepo/toolkits/risk/2. Mulcahy, R. P. Risk Management - Tricks of the Trade for Project
Managers, Minneapolis, MN: RMC Publications, Inc., (2003). 3. Pritchard, Carl L. Risk Management Concepts and Guidance.
3rd Edition. Arlington, VA: ESI International, (2005).4. Survey Monkey® website: http://www.surveymonkey.com5. Risk Radar® website: http://www.AmericanSystems.com
Email: RiskRadar@AmericanSystems.com Phone: (757) 424-3711, ext. 310; H. Duncan Wynne
6. Defense Acquisition University: https://acc.dau.mil/rm7. Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK).
Fourth Edition. Newton Square, PA: Project Management Institute, (2009)
8. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Newton Square, PA: Project Management Institute, (2009)
9. The Risk Doctor website: http://www.risk-doctor.com/
PMI Baltimore Luncheon Meeting Columbia, MD
24October 26, 2009
Questions?
Jack J. Ference, PMP®, PMI-RMP®
U.S. DOT/National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationAdvanced Vehicle Safety Research
Intelligent Technologies Research Division
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, W46-447
Washington, DC 20590
(202) 366-0168
Jack.ference@dot.gov