RISK ESTIMATION FOR PET CONTAMINATION: Examples from Greek mythology Jaakko Paasivirta, Department of Chemistry, University of Jyväskylä; Finland

Risk management scheme (EPA)

Risk estimation Risk management

Dose/response assessment

Risk characteri- zation

Hazard identifi- cation

Exposure assessment

Feedback

Controldecision

Control options

Acceptablelevel deter- mination

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)

Risk "Pythia"

GMOs

Malli Pythia: E ja P epävarmoja

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)

Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)

Risk "Pandora"POPs

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)

Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)

Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)

Cassandra was a profet knowing the future. But people did not believe her (cource of Ares). Here Aigistos and Klytaimnestra are murdering Agamemnon and Kassandra

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)

Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)

Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)

Model Medusa: E low, P low (high frequency electro-magnetic fields. Many believe that risk is high.

USA a.d. 2001 Syracuse 580 b. Chr.

Images of Medusa Gorgon

RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence

R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)

Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species

Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)

Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)

Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)

Model Medusa: E low, P low (high frequency electro-magnetic fields. Many believe that risk is high.