RISK ESTIMATION FOR PET CONTAMINATION: Examples from Greek mythology Jaakko Paasivirta, Department...
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Transcript of RISK ESTIMATION FOR PET CONTAMINATION: Examples from Greek mythology Jaakko Paasivirta, Department...
RISK ESTIMATION FOR PET CONTAMINATION: Examples from Greek mythology Jaakko Paasivirta, Department of Chemistry, University of Jyväskylä; Finland
Risk management scheme (EPA)
Risk estimation Risk management
Dose/response assessment
Risk characteri- zation
Hazard identifi- cation
Exposure assessment
Feedback
Controldecision
Control options
Acceptablelevel deter- mination
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)
Risk "Pythia"
GMOs
Malli Pythia: E ja P epävarmoja
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)
Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)
Risk "Pandora"POPs
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)
Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)
Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)
Cassandra was a profet knowing the future. But people did not believe her (cource of Ares). Here Aigistos and Klytaimnestra are murdering Agamemnon and Kassandra
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)
Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)
Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)
Model Medusa: E low, P low (high frequency electro-magnetic fields. Many believe that risk is high.
USA a.d. 2001 Syracuse 580 b. Chr.
Images of Medusa Gorgon
RISK CHARACTERIZATION (Germany)Risk = Extend of Damage * Probability of its Occurrence
R = E x PModel Damokles: E high, P low (chemial accident)
Model Cyclops: E high, P low (mass invasions of non-native species
Model Pythia: E uncertain, P uncertain (gene modification)
Model Pandora: E uncertain, P high (PET compounds – damage is irreversible)
Model Cassandra: E high, P high (Climatic change - people do not believe)
Model Medusa: E low, P low (high frequency electro-magnetic fields. Many believe that risk is high.