http://landscapemodelling.net

James D.A. Millington

Dept. of Geography, King’s College London

Representing cultural change

in ABMs of

socio-ecological systems

Agricultural Transitions

http://landscapemodelling.net

Agricultural Transitions

Policy shifts emphasising ‘non-productive’

uses of the land (multi-functionality)

http://landscapemodelling.net

Farming Intensity

Productivity

Low

High

Environmental

Sustainability

High

Low

Diversification

High

Low

Strong Multifunctionality

Weak Multifunctionality

Modelling Transitions

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“…one key paradox is that the

grand challenges appear to

involve changes in behaviour,

which represent not a

continuous evolution of current

patterns of behaviour but often

radical shifts.”

Heppenstall et al. (2012)

p.744

Modelling Transitions

http://landscapemodelling.net

“How we use models which

simulate current patterns of

behaviour which need to

change if the key issues are to

be resolved poses enormous

difficulties for implementing

and using models that are

based on current and past

patterns of behaviour.”

Heppenstall et al. (2012)

p.744

Beyond Agent Types?

http://landscapemodelling.net

Valbuena et al. (2008)

Agricultural Transitions

Policy shifts emphasising ‘non-productive’

uses of the land (multi-functionality)

http://landscapemodelling.net

Farming Intensity

Productivity

Low

High

Environmental

Sustainability

High

Low

Diversification

High

Low

Meaning of ‘Farming’

and ‘Agriculture’

More than food and

fibre production

Solely food and

fibre production

Strong Multifunctionality

Weak Multifunctionality

Agricultural Transitions

What does it mean to be a farmer?

Burton and Wilson (2006) introduced social

psychology theory into analysis

http://landscapemodelling.net

“No farmer got income from

anything except farming”

Social Psychology Theory

People hold multiple self-concepts within their

self-identity in a hierarchy (Stryker and Burke 2000)

Farmer: Producer, Agri-business person,

Conservationist, Diversifier

People attempt to express their identity

through their behaviour

Identity changes slowly to match social

network if behaviour cannot match identity

http://landscapemodelling.net

Farmer Social Psychology

http://landscapemodelling.net

Agent-Based Model

... of Farmer Identity and Behaviour

http://landscapemodelling.net

Prices

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Prices

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Spatial variation

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Gradient Quarters

Spatial variation

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Neighbourhood rules

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Cannot Ignore Neighbours Able to Ignore Neighbours

Neighbourhood rules

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Cannot Ignore Neighbours Able to Ignore Neighbours

Initial Observations

Initial (productivist) identities are stubborn to

change and require external perturbation

Spatial distribution of resources can influence

transitions between agents

Rules for social network formation influences

which transition towards alternative identities

http://landscapemodelling.net

Empirical Challenges

Identity Change

How to parameterise rates of identify change?

Different self-concepts expressed in different

situations (including when talking to researchers!)

Social Network

Vast amount of data needed

Who knows whom? How often do they meet?

What do they do when they meet? etc…

http://landscapemodelling.net

Decisions and Identities

Social Psychology Theory

Identity has multiple, hierarchical self-concepts

Identity expressed through behaviour

Changes respond to social network when

behaviour cannot reflect identity

james.millington@kcl.ac.uk

http://landscapemodelling.net

http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/3442