Post on 18-Mar-2020
Recharge the Future – Interim FindingsJack Lewis Wilkinson, Smart Grid Development Engineer, UK Power Networks
Celine Cluzel, Director, Element Energy
Tristan Dodson, Senior Consultant, Element Energy
1
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Presentation Overview
• UK Power Networks
• The importance of load forecasting
• Recharge the Future: Context, Objectives & Scope
• Key Findings
–Charger Use Study
–Load Growth in London
– Preview of EV Impact
• Next Steps
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved3
About UK Power Networks
Measure Data % of industry
End customers 8.2m 28%
Population served c.20m -
New metered connections* 46,000 32%
Distributed generation connected 8.5GW 31%
ED1 totex allowance (2012/13 prices) £6,029m 25%
Energy distributed 84.8TWh 28%
Peak demand 16GW N/A
Distribution Network Operator
- South East & East of England
- North, East, South & Central London
Will power almost all EVs in licence area
* Average per annum 2010/11-2014/15
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Developing accurate &
granular EV load
forecasts
Creating a toolbox for
network planners to
provide fast and
affordable EV
connections
Promoting partnerships
between transport, energy
& City stakeholders, and
encouraging cross
learning
EV Readiness
Pillars
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Recharge the Future: Context
• Government Targets:
–All new cars to be electric by 2040
• EVs to have larger impact on load growth
• More accurate peak load forecast needed
• Impact & strategy over next regulatory period (2023-2030) needs to be
reassessed
2018 High Scenario 2030
1%< 32%
EV Parc Share - DfT
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
The Importance of Load Forecasting
Reinforcement – upgrading the capacity of network assets to accommodate load growth
1. Regulatory period settlements
– Long term forecasts are used to estimate the level of reinforcement spend needed to accommodate growth over a regulatory period
2. EHV Reinforcement Planning
– Traditional reinforcements can take 3-5 years to complete
– Load growth forecasts used to plan these ahead of need, to avoid firm capacity shortfalls
3. LV & HV Visibility Deployment – New EV readiness strategy
– Reinforcements take months to complete so are done reactively
– EV readiness strategy - Forecasts highlight high risk areas, where visibility is installed to identify where & when reinforcement is needed
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Recharge the Future: Key Modelling Requirements
• Must be able to model changing load growth on individual
assets.
• It must therefore take into consideration geospatial variations
in:
– EV uptake
– Utilisation of different charging infrastructures
– Charging profiles
Share of cars parked on-street by MSOA.
Source: Element Energy for TfL
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Recharge the Future: Project Overview
8
1. Charger Use
Study
2. Modelling Tool
Enhancement3. Impact Analysis
➢ Investigate EV charging
behaviour through literature
review, expert consultation
and additional data analysis.
➢ Consolidate findings and
propose recommendations for
modelling charging behaviour.
➢ Update the EV module of the
Element Energy Load Growth
Model, by integrating the findings
from the Charge Use Study
➢ Accurately reflect geospatial
variation in charging behaviour
➢ Develop scenarios to explore
future EV environments
➢ Use updated Element Energy
Load Growth Model and
developed scenarios to conduct
impact analysis on the UKPN
network (work carried out by
UKPN and Imperial College
London)
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charger Use Study: Overview
9
Literature Search
• Revealed 71 papers on EV charging behaviour
Literature Review
• Assessed papers for relevance against research questions
• Recorded sources of real-world data used
• Identified 23 real-world EV trials
Data Review
• Assessed data sources for applicability to research questions
• Reviewed identified trial documentation
Knowledge Gap Identification
• Identified gaps in literature for answering research questions
Stakeholder Consultation
• Interviewed industry stakeholders to fill knowledge gaps
Additional Data Analysis
• Reanalysed existing trial data for aspects not originally reported
• Sourced and analysed additional real-world datasets
Datasets analysed
• Plugged-in Places (2010-13)
• Low Carbon London (2013-14)
• My Electric Avenue (2014-16)
• ESB ecars (Nov 2016-Sep
2017)
• ZapMap (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
• Electric Nation (interim, Apr
2017 – Feb 2018)
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: Home charging
• For commuters, plug-in events are concentrated in the early evening when they arrive
home from work
• BEVs and PHEVs plug in at similar times
10
Average plug-in start times, from the Electric Nation interim data
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: Home charging
• PHEVs charge at home more often than BEVs
• Average kWh per charge is strongly correlated with battery capacity
11
Average home charges per day
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: Slow/fast public (≤22kW)
• On weekdays, plug-in start times peak in the morning, midday and evening
• On weekends, there is a broad peak in plug-in events around early afternoon
12
Average plug-in start times at slow/fast public charge points
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: Slow/fast public (≤22kW)
• Slow/fast public charge points display bi-modal usage behaviour on weekdays
• Long charge events are due to commuters and overnight charging
13
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: On-street residential charging
• Use of on-street residential charge points in Netherland’s EVnetNL network
is very similar to home charging
14
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Charge Use Study findings: Rapid public (≥50kW)
• On weekdays, plug-in events peak in morning, early afternoon and evening
15
• Average plug-in duration is 30-40 minutes
• Charging frequency is ~once every 3 weeks but is higher for larger batteries
Average plug-in start times at rapid public charge points
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Implementing Charger Use Study findings in the Element
Energy Load Growth Model
• EV’s divided into 16 different types, considering:
–PHEV or BEV
–Commuters or non-commuters
–Access to home charging or not
–Urban or rural
• Charging behaviour of each group is modelled, accounting for:
–Mileage and kWh demand
–Share of charging demand met by each charging location type (home,
work, on-street residential, slow/fast public and rapid public)
–Charging start times
–Charging frequency and duration16
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
EV Uptake Scenarios
17
• The model is pre-loaded with uptake scenarios for BEVs and PHEVs. These are provided by ECCo, Element Energy’s car consumer choice model
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Load Growth Scenarios
The model is pre-loaded with a number of scenario packages, which represent different self-consistent
views of future EV charging demand.
1. Current Policies
– Medium EV growth and EV charging behaviour remains as it is today. Managed charging at
home becomes increasingly popular as EV stock grows.
2. Unmanaged Growth
– Rapid growth in EVs but with little consideration of impact of charging demand on the grid. This is
a worst case scenario in terms of impact on the network.
3. Managed Growth
– Similar to unmanaged growth but with maximum effort to alleviate grid impacts.
4. Charging Stations
– Rapid growth in EVs and public charging infrastructure. EV drivers show preference for charging
at slow and rapid public charging points, similar to how conventional vehicles are refuelled.
18
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Next Steps
• Charger Use Study Report – April
• Network Impact Analysis
• Final Report – End of October
19
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Preview of Final Report: EV Uptake in London
• Recharge the Future gives us a high resolution understanding of where EV
uptake will occur.
20
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Preview: EV demand density in London
21
• Recharge the Future’s state of the art charger use study enables us to understand
where consumers will require electricity in the future
• Study report will be released in August
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
Preview: Peak Load Growth
• By comparing these two secondary substation load profiles, we can
clearly see how starkly the two EV loads differ
VALE CRESCENT STATION RD 42
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
23
Network Impact
by 2025
Base scenario
Red = No headroom
Green = headroom
2017. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved
24
Network Impact by
2025 – Managed
vs Unmanaged
Available capacity
Hot spots - managed
Additional hot spots -
unmanaged