Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
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Transcript of Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
Presentation for Visioning Day October 30th, 2009Office Of Institutional Research and Planning
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
For Planning purposes data can help you do three things
Set goals by identifying trends, problems, strengths, opportunitiesInform Strategies by understanding the cause of problems or logistical considerations Evaluate progress and make corrections
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
But data is just small part.
While data-jockeying is important it’s the syntheses, analysis, application and evaluation of data and information that is at the core of what we need to do.
External:
Demographic/workforce forecasts K-12 trends UC/CSU trends Public perceptions of Higher Education
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
Internal
Student Demographics Student Preparation Student Success and Learning
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
Shifting Forces
Workforce/Skills Gap Economy (short and long term) Funding and Legislation Sustainability Increased Diversity Globalism Changes in the Nature of Learning and the
Millennial generation
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future
External: Demographics Population Growth
Population
2010 2019/2020Change from 2010
to 2020% Change from
2010 to 2020
EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG
Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol 175,303 198,300 181,764 229,900 6,461 31,600 3.7% 15.9%
Alameda County 1,466,636 1,549,800 1,586,924 1,705,900 120,288 156,100 8.2% 10.1%
Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara 5,090,282 5,272,100 5,590,953 5,813,500 500,671 541,400 9.8% 10.3%
State of California 37,696,392 n/a 42,854,241 n/a 5,157,849 n/a 13.7% n/a
EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments
External: DemographicsProjected Race/ Ethnicity Demographics Over Time by Area
4581
130,654
2,057,917 15,574,287
123,057
1,971,052 15,464,121
119,308
1,933,675 15,420,158
1407
43,053
1,158,020
13,394,509
47,655
1,213,358
15,303,908
53,500
1,367,920
17,406,928
8,257
371,094
2,239,8077,832
361,293
2,299,1017,767
364,054
2,374,1111347
29,210
1,286,206
4,535,81232,883
1,437,510
5,130,81936,927
1,612,525
5,783,6801263
7000 196619 1240644 7683 218677 1402884 8613 246828 1587523
424
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LP
C
Cit
ies
Co
unti
es
Sta
te
Cit
ies
Co
unti
es
Sta
te
Cit
ies
Co
unti
es
Sta
te
2008 2013 2018
Other
Asian
Black orAfricanAmericanHispanic
White,Non-Hispanic
Source: EMSI data
External: Labor/Jobs Growth
Labor/Jobs
2010 2019/2020Change from 2010 to 2020
% Change from 2010 to 2020
EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG
Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol 152,829 105,970 164,735 133,400 11,906 27,430 7.8% 25.9%
Alameda County 888,167 712,850 965,567 825,070 77,400 112,220 8.7% 15.7%
Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara
3,284,296 2,564,570 3,654,481 2,989,790 370,185 425,220
11.3% 16.6%
State of California20,696,4
99 n/a23,140,65
3 n/a2,444,1
54 n/a
11.8% n/a
EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.
ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments
External: Labor
4,423
1,021 879 878
476 402172 170 170 152
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Registerednurses ($49/hr)
Computersupport
specialists($27/hr)
Computerspecialists, allother ($39/hr)
Paralegals andlegal
assistants($29/hr)
Dentalhygienists
($49/hr)
Biologicaltechnicians
($21/hr)
Medicalrecords and
healthinformationtechnicians
($20/hr)
Interiordesigners($22/hr)
Veterinarytechnologists
andtechnicians
($19/hr)
Respiratorytherapists($36/hr)
Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Associate Degree
Source: EMSI data
External: Labor
Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Bachelor's Degree
7,2156,511
3,670
2,582 2,528 2,481 2,421 2,1711,361 1,305
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Property, realestate, andcommunityassociationmanagers($11/hr)
Computersoftware
engineers,applications
($48/hr)
Computersoftware
engineers,systems software
($51/hr)
Network systemsand data
communicationsanalysts ($36/hr)
Computersystems
analysts ($39/hr)
Businessoperation
specialists, allother ($34/hr)
Accountants andauditors ($29/hr)
Personal financialadvisors ($30/hr)
Network andcomputersystems
administrators($41/hr)
Elementaryschool teachers,except special
education($38/hr)
Source: EMSI data
External: k-12 trends
College Going rates Statewide it’s decreasing-locally it’s
higher Increased Gap between haves and have
nots (achievement Gap) Exit exam Increased ESL population Math:
Algebra in 8th grade
Concerns over Curriculum gap between high school and College Cal-Pass research shows students often
repeat course in college they already took in high school
This may partly explain why it seems that so many high school graduates are unprepared for college level work.
External: k-12 trends
External: k-12
College Going Rates Las Positas High School Districts
No Public College
33%
UC10%
CSU17%
CCC40%
Source: California Department of Education
External: k-12
Source of First-Time Freshman to Las Positas College
Other California High Schools,
24%
Other Alameda County High Schools, 3%
High Schools in Chabot District,
8%
Other Bay Area High Schools,
6%
Out of State High Schools, 4%
High Schools in Other Countries,
5%
High Schools in LPC District,
50%
Source: CLPCCD Institutional Data Base
Internal: Local High Schools
HS Grad YearLPC
SemesterNumber of
Grads*
Number New Enrollments at LPC Grad year the previous
Spring**
% of grads who attended LPC the Fall
after HS Graduation
Number of New Enrollments at
LPC of any Grad Year**
% of New LPC Students who graduated HS
any year
Number of All New Students
to LPC**
1996-1997 Fall 1997 1658 356 21% 494 44% 1112
1997-1998 Fall 1998 1714 391 23% 512 45% 1126
1998-1999 Fall 1999 1869 446 24% 551 49% 1131
1999-2000 Fall 2000 1804 576 32% 709 51% 1403
2000-2001 Fall 2001 1912 588 31% 707 51% 1385
2001-2002 Fall 2002 2048 655 32% 779 54% 1456
2002-2003 Fall 2003 1916 646 34% 785 53% 1470
2003-2004 Fall 2004 2200 698 32% 834 55% 1516
2004-2005 Fall 2005 2293 684 30% 811 52% 1556
2005-2006 Fall 2006 2380 645 27% 907 50% 1606
2006-2007 Fall 2007 2517 767 30% 911 51% 1769
2007-2008 Fall 2008 2637 763 29% 926 52% 1767
External: UC/CSU
Less capacity/budget cuts
More competition
Higher fees
External: Public Perception (Clarus Report)
Market Assessment Report (March 2007)
The name and existence of LPC is well known 55% of LPC service area would consider
attending LPC Considered convenient and affordable Generally well regarded but public lack specific
knowledge
External: Public Perception (Campus Commons Report)
Public Feel a college education is necessary and fear
that increasing costs make college out of reach
Support of high education is contingent on maintaining access
Growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money
External: Summary
Demographic Continued growth and increased diversity
Workforce Increase in jobs outpace growth in population Healthcare, technology, business/finance Must anticipate areas of growth and be nimble
enough to quickly respond to needs
External: Summary
K-12 trends We draw students for all over…not just our local high
schools Almost half of local high school graduates attend LPC Must understand and respond to trends such as
achievement gap, differences curriculum and student preparation
Public Perceptions of Higher Education/LPC In general, growing sense that colleges are inefficient
and can educate more students without needing more money.
LPC is generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge LPC
Internal: Demographics
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
18,28719,127
20,223
22,37620,710 20,951 20,847
23,182
25,418
27,360
29,235
6951 7413 7857 85887395 7325 7332 7796 8451
9100 9517
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000 LPC Headcounts and Enrollments Fall 1999-Fall 2009
Headcount
Enrollments
Internal: Demographics
38%
29%
32%
36%
29%
34%
32%
28%
35%
37%
27%
36%
34%
29%
36%
34%
28%
38%
31%
29%
39%
29%
26%
46%
27%
26%
47%
27%
26%
48%
26%
27%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
LPC Number of Units Fall 1999-Fall 2009
up to 5.5 Units
5.6-11.9 Units
12 or moreUnits
Internal: Demographics
LPC Age Distribution Fall 1999- Fall 2009
27% 27% 26% 28% 28% 30% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31%
23% 24% 23% 24% 27% 28% 27% 28% 29% 28% 31%
10% 10% 10% 9%9%
9% 10% 10% 9% 11% 9%16% 16% 16% 14%14% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10%
12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9%
12% 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
50 or older
40-49
30-39
25-29
20-24
19 oryounger
Internal: Demographics
LPC Student Type Fall 1999-Fall 2009
16% 18% 17% 17% 19% 21% 21% 20% 21% 20% 21%
56% 52% 51% 52%56% 53% 54% 55% 56% 56% 57%
13% 21% 21% 21%19% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20%11%
6% 5% 5%4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1%3% 4% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
Enrolled inK-12ReturningStudentTransfer-InStudentsContinuingStudentNewStudent
Internal: DemographicsLPC Educational Goal Fall 1999-Fall 2009
30% 32% 30% 30% 34% 34% 33% 35% 36% 39% 40%
10% 10% 10% 10%11% 12% 12%
13% 12%14% 13%10% 9% 9% 9%
9% 10% 9%8% 8%
7% 7%17% 17% 18% 16%15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
15% 16%9% 9% 10% 11%
9% 8% 9% 8% 8%6% 6%
24% 23% 23% 24% 22% 21% 22% 21% 21% 19% 18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
Goal undecided
Intellectual/cultural dev.
job related goal
Two year assocwithout transfr
BA withoutcompleting AA
BA aftercompleting AA
Internal: DemographicsLPC Race/Ethnicity Fall 1999-Fall 2009
10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 16% 16% 17% 15%
70% 68% 66% 66% 64% 62% 59% 56% 54% 52% 53%
11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17%
6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall1999
Fall2000
Fall2001
Fall2002
Fall2003
Fall2004
Fall2005
Fall2006
Fall2007
Fall2008
Fall2009
AfricanAmerican
Asian
Hispanic
White
Otherunknown
Internal: Demographics
Growth in enrollment
Traditional college students (full-time, young, goal to transfer, never attended college)
Increasing racial/ethnic diversity (Asian and Hispanic populations)
Internal: Student Preparation
Las Positas English Assessment TrendsFall 1998-Fall 2008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Pct.
Ass
essi
ng in
to
Each
Lev
el
College Level: Engl 1A
1 Below: Engl 101A/104
2 Below: Engl 116-Learning Skills
3 Below: Take ESL Test
Internal: Student Preparation
Las Positas Math Assessment TrendsFall 1998-Fall 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
% A
sses
sing in
to E
ach L
evel
College Level: Trig or above
1 Below: Math 55/55A Int. Alg.
2 Below: Math 65/65A Elem. Alg.
3 Below: Math 107 Basic Skills
Internal: Student Preparation
Increase in number and proportion of students who require basic skills courses in English and Math (and study skills)
Simultaneous increase in students who have high education goals and expect academic rigor in preparation for transfer
Internal: Success and Leaning -Transfers Top Six Four-Year Colleges and Universities Transfers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
UC Berkeley
UC Davis
CSU East Bay
CSU Sacramento
San Francisco State
San Jose State
Internal: Success and Learning-IncomeIncrease in Personal Income After Graduating from a CCC in 2000-01
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004CA Median Household Income CA Per Capita Income CCC Median Income
Source: ARCC Report www.cccco.edu
Internal: Student Success and Learning
Core Competencies Communication Critical Thinking Creativity and Aesthetics Respect and Responsibility Technology
Measured in a number of ways including in- class assessments and Student Self reports
Internal: Student Success and Learning
Greatest Self-Reported Gains Mean
Skills I can use in my current or future career 3.89
Discovering my own potential 3.84
Developing clear career goals 3.83
Writing Skills 3.79
Gathering information from multiple sources 3.79
Ability to learn on my own, pursue ideas and find info. 3.79
Performing to the best of my abilities 3.78
Understanding myself- abilities, interests, limitations 3.78
Critical thinking 3.75
Listening effectively 3.72
Applying knowledge to new situations to solve problems 3.72
Ability to set goals and develop strategies to reach them 3.721 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger
Internal: Student Success and Learning
Lowest Self-Reported Gains Mean
Awareness of my civic or community responsibilities 3.48
Appreciation for the arts and the role art plays in society 3.49
Using numerical data 3.49
Appreciation of my role in a democratic society 3.52
Overall technological literacy 3.54
Desire to contribute to my community/society 3.55
Ability to use computers effectively 3.56
Ability to meet challenges of a rapidly-changing society 3.58
Ability to read, interpret, and generate charts/graphs 3.59
Reading skills 3.59
Mathematical skills and abilities 3.60
1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger
Student Demographics LPC has a large proportion of “traditional”
students (young, transfer directed, full-time)
Student Preparation High school students expect high quality
education for transfer and workforce training But also need remedial academic and leaning
skills support
Internal: Summary
Student Success and Learning Graduating from a CCC greatly increases
earnings. Student report greatest gains is a broad mix of
outcomes that range from academic to affective
As with highest gains, lowest gain is a broad mix of academic and affective outcomes. Many of the outcomes concerned with civic engagement and societal contribution are areas in which students report fewer gains.
Internal: Summary
Shifting Forces: Workforce Gap Gap of workers qualified and
experienced to replace baby boomers
Over supply of workers for the number of low skilled jobs
Both a demographic and educational trend
Shifting Forces: Economy- Short Term
o Slow recovery
o Lag in creation of jobs (Latest UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts double- digit unemployment until end of 2011)
Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term
Recovery vs. Reset
Breaking the law: Okun’s law
Growth alone wont save us because the “lost” jobs are not coming back
Long term and profound changes in Home ownership, consumer spending/saving,
availability of credit, investment, business start-ups (which are the first source of new jobs)
Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term
Recovery vs. Reset
Different types of jobs/skills Longer term training for higher skills jobs Need to shift away from quick in and out training
programs Not so much a “labor” gap; more of a skills gap
Shifting Forces: Funding/Legislation
Decreased funding*
Unreliable funding unless major changes to constitution Term limits 2/3 budget Redistricting
Unfunded mandates
Shifting Forces: Increased Accountability
WASC (Western Association of Schools and Colleges)
ARCC (Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges)
Increased public scrutiny/sophistication and questioning
Less focus on process and more focus on outcomes and results
Shifting Forces: Sustainability
•Three Bottom Lines
EnvironmentEnvironment
EconomyEconomy Equity /Equity /CommunityCommunity
Practices/ Operation
s-drinking fountains
-recycling
-building design
-solar electric
Education
-certificates
-degrees
-transfer programs
-Infuse sustainable ideas into curriculum
Processes/ Human
Resources-sustainable processes
-hiring the proper
number of support staff
-Prioritizing initiatives
Shifting Forces: Sustainability
Shifting Forces: Increased Diversity
oGetting Beyond “Quotas” thinking
oGetting beyond “meeting the needs of diverse populations”
oTransforming who we are and what we do
oEssential workplace/life skill for ourselves and our students
Shifting Forces: Globalism
Increased competition Increased need for ability to
understand different perspectives Delivery methods Ability to adapt, change and
learning on own
Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning
Traditional Instructor
provides Information
Student responsible for mastery
Millenial Students have access
to information
Students expect instructor to help them master the information
Instructor as source of information
Instructor as learning coach
Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning
Instructor is valued as source of
information
Instructor valued as
learning coach
What would this mean for professional development, delivery methods, curriculum, pedagogy, classroom management?
Data isn’t about what you know...its about how you make sense of it…how you apply it.
While important, data is the least interesting part. Analysis, synthesis, evaluation is how the dots get connected.
Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future