Post on 07-Mar-2016
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NKOMEJE Felicien ()Student ID: M2014047Tel: +86-18305160547
E-mail: fnkomeje@gmail.com
Evaluation of Urban Growth Based on LU&LC Dynamics inKigali city, Rwanda
A research proposal
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
The 05th January 2016
Supervisor: Dr. Xiaoxiang ZHANG
Research outline1. Study area2. Background and motivation3. Research objectives 4. Research questions 5. Research relevance and rationale 6. Data sources and collection methods7. Proposed methodology8. Research structure9. Work plan10. Resources
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Study area
HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering
KIgali
The population of the city isslightly above 1M on 730 sqkmand the spread out city extendsover to several valleys and hills.
Kigali is commercial and political life. The largest city of the country. is exhaustively composed by 3 district and Nyarugenge stays the urban center of the city.
Background and motivation
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
54% of world pop live in urban area and projected to66% (2050) (UN-DESA, 2014).
Kigali founded in 1907 now has More than 1M people
Density pop in Kigali was 1265 in 2006 and 1600/Sqkm in 2012.
Source: Fourth Population and Housing Census in 2012 reported in 2014
Background and motivation
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Urban change is 4% in last decade (25% in 2011, 26%in 2012, 27% in 2013 , 28 in 2014 ) and now must bemore (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS)
Rwanda has been ranked the fastest developingcountry in the world in the last 25 years. China hasbeen ranked the second (http://www.economist.com December, 2015).
Kigali One Stop Center has issued 282 constructionpermits since April 2010 to Oct 2012(http://www.independent.co.ug).
Agriculture land reduced to a considerable rate.
Background and motivation (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Kigali master plan Vs field observation
Rwandas seek to benefit from Kigalis land andproperty market; but its leaders also strive for much morein the city(Every day manifestation-residents income-developers and Government)
RS and GIS as analysis and decision making tools.
This study will generally help to understand urbandynamics and assess the future urban growth impacts onenvironment.
Background and motivation (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering
k Suburb in the city fringe
Residential in planning_Gvt
City Vs Rivers
City Vs Swamps
City and agriculture
Environmental impactsAgents interactions in policy implementation
City center
Gatsata residentswary as rainspound risk zone
Kigali master plan
Research objectives
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
The overall objective of the study isto evaluate the spatio-temporal urbangrowth process of Kigali city based onland use/land cover change.
Research objectives (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Specifically the research will tackle:
Describing urban growth process and LUCCdynamics;
Identifying Kigali urban patterns and itsdynamics;
Generating LULCC models using RS/GISapproaches ;
Research questions
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Why is Kigali city growing faster? (driving forces => Causes and impacts assessment)
What are spatial patterns of Kigali urbangrowth?...(This will also deal with where question)
How to model Kigali urban LUCC usingRS and GIS approaches?...(Geo-Simulations)
Relevance
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
The research is relevant in terms of:
Understanding the evolution of Kigali urbangrowth in order to help decision makers;
Improving the public policy in Kigali city (Kigalimaster plan updates, etc;
Contributing as potential resource for furtherrelated or connected researches and will serveas model to similar case study
Data source
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Primary data
GCP (Ground control points): these GPSpoints will help in geo-referencing and groundchecking features
Illustrative Photos: these are current photothat will provide a better understanding of thestudy area
Data source (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Secondary data
Landsat images: in this research, landsat5, 7and 8 images will be used to perform someprocessing and analysis.
Data sources (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
Secondary data
DEM: this can be downloaded from differentwebsite or produced from DTM;
Kigali master plan shp
Geoeye or quickbird image for data validation
Different hard and electronics materials willbe reviewed (more than 120 papers and booksare available now;
Methodology
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
The purpose, data availability, skills capability, timeand budget are major factors to define the researchmethod(Keith G., No date)
However, the urbangrowth monitoringusing remotely senseddata will alwaysperformed around thischart.
Methodology (Contd) : Why, What and How questions?
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
RS Images+GCP+other data
Mosaic subset Kigali boundary shp
GCP+mapsOrthophotos
Thematic Accuracy calibration
Spatial reclassification
Supervised Classification
Image preprocessing Correct &Enhance
Sieving and clumping(Possible Ground truth)
Likelihood algorithm
Kappa
Classesdetermination/Patterns
Built up, Agriculture land,lake/River, green spaces and nonused space
Topo map, DEM,KMP shp
RS data/landsat 5,7 and 8
Dynamics model(AM)
Change detection
Modeling results& Interpretation
Methodology (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
The research temporal scale is 1985 2015,divided in 3 time series(1985-1995-2005-2015).
The classification will define Built up,Agriculture land, lake/River, green spaces andnon used space.
The Kappa statistics: based on cell-by-cellcomparison of the observed map and thepredicted map (Hagen-Zanker et al, 2008).
AM Spatial dynamics model will help toidentify spatial urban change rate and patterns.
Key terms
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
For a better understanding of this project, some key terms will be defined:
GIS (Geographic Information System )
RS ( Remote Sensing )
LU/LCC (Land use and land cover change)
Kigali
Rwanda
urban modeling
Urbanization prediction
Landsat images
Research structure
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
This research will be arranged in 4 chapters:
Chap1. General introduction
Chap2. Understanding urban growth and LUCC
Chap3. Kigali urban growth dynamics
Chap4. Conclusion and recommendations
Work plan (2016)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Proposal preparation
Proposal defense
Gathering resources
Experiments
work (Paper)
Chap 1
Chap 2
Chap 3
Chap 4
Final work Jan-March 2017
References
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
1. Mirkatouli J, Hosseini A, Neshat A: Analysis of land use and land cover spatial pattern based on Markov chains modelling. City, Territory and Architecture 2015, 2(1).2. Carvalho Ribeiro S, Migliozzi A, Incerti G, Pinto Correia T: Placing land cover pattern preferences on the map: Bridging methodological approaches of landscape preference surveys and spatial pattern analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning 2013, 114:53-68.3. ESRI, ARCGIS spatial analyst_advanved Spat analyst using Raster and Vector, ESRI 380 New York St., Redlands, CA 92373-8100, USA, 20014. John D. Bossler et al, Manual of geospatial science & technology, nd. 5. Addis getnet yesserie, spatiotemporal land use land cover changes analysis and monitoring, Castelln, Spain, march 2009.6. M F GOODCHILD et al,The future of GIS and spatial analysis, nd.7. Gilbert Nduwayezu, Modeling urban growth in Kigali city, Rwanda, Enschede, The Netherlands, February 2015.
References (Contd)
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
8. JAMES G. Watt et al, Secretary at United States Department of , Interior, A Land Use And Land Cover Classification System For Use With Remote Sensor Data, First Printing 1976, Conversion to Digital 2001.
9. Atiqur RAHMAN et al, An assessment of urban environmental issues using remote sensing and gis techniques, Paris, 2009.
10. University of Freiburg, GIS & Spatial Modeling, Course notes, Class 2: "Spatial Doing" - A discourse about analysis and modeling in a spatial context, nd.
11. NISR, 2012 population and house hold census, Rwanda, November 2012
Cleanliness And Beauty Define Kigali City
HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering
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