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The State Budget Outlook:A New Fiscal Reality
Updated April 26, 2011
David Blatt
Oklahoma Policy Institutedblatt@okpolicy.org - (918) 794-3944
mailto:dblatt@okpolicy.orgmailto:dblatt@okpolicy.org8/7/2019 Oklahoma Budget Trends and Outlook (April 2011)
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Oklahomas Path to Prosperity
OUR STARTING POINTGovernment is among our means of
achieving our common goals as astate --- alongside private businesses,non-profit organizations, faith groups
and families.
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Oklahomas Path to Prosperity
OUR STARTING POINT Our families, communities and businesses dependon our state and local governments to help:
Educate our children and train our workforce;
Protect our streets and investigate crimes;
Maintain and upgrade our roads and bridges;
Pay for the medical care provided by private doctors, nurses,therapists, home health aides, hospitals, etc.
Ensure we have clean water and air;
Promote our small towns, rural areas, artists and investors;
Take care of those at risk of harm and abuse.
We cannot reach our goals and thrive as a statewithout effective public structures and systems.
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Oklahomas Path to Prosperity
We Already Lag Behind Oklahoma already underfunds most of our publicstructures and falls short of many of our common goals asa state.
Total per capital state and local spending is $1,627 (18percent) less than the national average;
We spend below the national average in just about everycategory of expenditure;
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000$8,000
$10,000
Spending
perPer
son
Spending per Person by Function, 2005-06 (U.S. Census Bureau data)
Oklahoma
US Average
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Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
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Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09FY 02 FY 09: Bust and Boom
State budget suffered steep downturn, deep cuts, 02 - 04;
Strong economy led to robust revenue growth and increased stateappropriations between FY 06 and FY 08.
Most agency appropriations frozen in FY 09
$4,981
$5,389 $5,491
$5,191 $5,145
$5,459
$6,217
$6,760$7,043 $7,089
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09
State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY '09, in $ millions(includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day spillover funds)
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Where did the growth revenue go?
Increased State Appropriations, Selected Agencies,
FY 06 FY 08
Dept. of Education: $453M
Health Care Authority: $289M
Higher Education: $271M
Human Services: $129M
Corrections: $80M
Transportation: $72.5M*
Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
80 percent of new dollars went to six core agencies.
Covering rising costs of basic services and supportingtargeted investments for shared goals.
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Lost Revenues from Select Tax Cuts Enacted 2004 - 2006
FY'05 through FY'10 (in $ millions)
$18.7$144.8
$333.3
$561.8$651.1
$776.9
$0.0
$200.0$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10
source : Oklahoma Tax Commission
Tax Cuts had a long-term impact Most of the cuts were to the personal income tax;
Tax cuts were stretched out over several years; full impactwill not be felt until FY13.
Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
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Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
ThingsAre Tough All Over
All but four states are facing shortfalls in FY 11.
Combined state budget gaps for FY 09 FY 12 estimated toexceed $600 billion.
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
The Recession Hit in Late 2008
8.9%
6.5%
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11
Monthly Unemployment Rate, National and Oklahoma, Feb. 2008to Feb. 2011
National Oklahoma
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
Its a Revenue Problem Five consecutive quarters of worsening collections;
Revenue drops more than twice as steep as during thelast downturn.
-12.1%
-29.5%
13.9%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Q1
FY
'02
Q3
FY
'02
Q1
FY
'03
Q3
FY
'03
Q1
FY
'04
Q3
FY
'04
Q1
FY
'05
Q3
FY
'05
Q1
FY
'06
Q3
FY
'06
Q1
FY
'07
Q3
FY
'07
Q1
FY
'08
Q3
FY
'08
Q1
FY
'09
Q3
FY
'09
Q1
FY
'10
Q3
FY
'10
Q1
FY
'11
Q3
FY 11
Quarterly Year-over-Year Change in General Revenue Collections, FY '02 - FY
'11
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
Its a Revenue Problem FY 10 General Revenue 23 percent below pre-downturn (FY
08) levels;
FY 10 GR collections less than FY 01 without adjusting forinflation or population growth.
$4,717
$4,408
$4,174
$4,616
$4,966
$5,701
$5,935 $5,953
$5,545
$4,600
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10
General Revenue Collections,FY '01 - FY '10 (in $millions)
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 10 Initial Budget $7,231.2 million total, including $641 million ARRA (stimulus);
Increase in total appropriations of $106 million (1.5 percent);
Stimulus funds made it possible to minimize cuts or providesmall increases to ten largest state agencies and some smallerones.
$4,981
$5,389 $5,491$5,191 $5,145
$5,459
$6,217
$6,760
$7,043
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10
State Appropriations ARRA
$30ARRA
$7,125 $7,231
$641ARRA
$7,095
State
$6,590State
State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY '10 in $millions)(includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day Spillover funds)
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start Collections through January were $864 million 24.9 percent- below the estimate.
After seven months of significant shortfalls, collections startingin February came close to or exceeded the monthly estimate.
-$401
-$180 -$200
-$11-$72
-$864-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
Net Income
Tax
Gross
Production
Sales Tax Motor
Vehicle
Other
Sources
Total Gen.
Revenue
General Revenue Collections compared toEstimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru Jan (in $millions)
-$476
$17
-$238
$6
-$125
-$816-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
Net
Income Tax
Gross
Production
Sales Tax Motor
Vehicle
Other
Sources
Total Gen.
Revenue
General Revenue Collections compared toEstimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru June (in $millions)
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 10 Shortfalls: What Response? OSF cut agencies GR allocations by 5 percent beginning inAugust and by 10 percent beginning in December;
Borrowing from cash reserves of various funds;
Agreements announced by Governor, Speaker and
President Pro Tem in January and February: Continued 10 percent monthly cuts to GR for rest of year;
Averaged out to 7.5 percent of GR for full year.
Supplemental funding to various agencies to offset part of GRand HB 1017 shortfalls;
Additional revenues needed to balance from Rainy Day Fund,stimulus funds, other sources.
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Total revised budget was $272 million (3.8%) less thaninitial; $165 million (2.4%) less than FY 09;
Almost $1.5 billion (21%) of revised FY 10 budget madeup of non-recurring money.
$6,793
$6,220$5,462
$301
$371
$435
$30$641
$838
$224
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
FY '09 FY '10 - Initial FY '10 - Revised
State Recurring Cash Stimulus (ARRA) Rainy Day Fund
State Appropriations, FY '09 - FY '10,
Total and by Funding Source (in $millions)
Total= $7,124 million Total= $7,231 millionTotal= $6,959 million
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates 2010 Session focused on which, if any, revenue measures wouldbe adopted to bridge the budget gap.
FY 11 budget gap exceeded $800 million - assumingmaintenance of FY 10 budget cuts, the use of all remainingstimulus funds, and 3/8ths of Rainy Day Fund.
Equivalent to an additional 12 percent cuts to all agencies ofstate government beyond the cuts already enacted.
Agency scenarios of how to absorb cuts of an additional 7.5percent to 15 percent in FY 11 left no doubt of the grave threatsthat would be posed to the state economy and to the health and
security of Oklahomans. Many cuts would be multiplied by loss of federal matching
funds.
See OK Policy, Bridging the Budget Gap, :http://okpolicy.org/files/bridgingthegap_1pg.pdf
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 11 Budget Agreement Appropriated almost $1.4 billion in additional revenues on topof those certified in February. These included:
Remaining $539 million from the 2009 stimulus bill;
Additional $273 from the Rainy Day Fund;
$580 million from assorted revenue enhancements: Suspending and deferring payment of tax credits;
Issuing and refinancing bonds;
Fee and permit increases;
Transfers of cash balances;
Enhanced tax collections.
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 11 Budget Agreement Total appropriations for FY 11 = $6.714 billion.
7.2 percent decrease (-$517.5 million) from the initial FY 10budget and 3.5 percent decrease (-$245.4 million) from thefinal FY 10 budget after mid-year cuts.
$4,906
$5,389 $5,412
$4,922$5,073
$5,240
$6,217
$6,760$7,043
$7,095
$6,590
$5,897
$5,902
$219
$30
$641
$838$539
$75
$79
$269 $72
$224
$273
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -
Initial
FY '10 -
Final
FY '11
FIG. 1: State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY 11(in $millions; FY '00-FY'10 includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day Spillover Funds )
State Re ve nue s Fe de ral Re lie f Rainy Day Fund
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 11 Budget Agreement
Common Ed.,$2,375.6 , 35%
Higher Ed., $1,003.5, 15%
OHCA (Medicaid),$993.0 , 15%
DHS, $543.1 , 8%
Corrections, $462.1 ,7%
Transportation,$114.8 , 2%
Mental Health,$187.7 , 3%
Career Tech, $142.0 ,2%
Juv. Affairs, $99.2 ,1%
Public Safety, $88.4 ,1%
All Other Agencies,$704.3 , 11%
TotalAppropriations:$6,713.7 millionIncludes stimulus,Rainy Day Fund
Total TenLargest:$6,009.4, 89.5%
Notes: Transportation alsoreceived $65 from bond issue;OHCA includes $30m transferfrom Insure Oklahoma Fund;excludes Health Carrier AccessPayment revenue
Agency Appropriations 10 Largest, Others, Total
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
FY 11 Budget Agreement Funding cuts limited to under 10 percent for most of the largeststate agencies;
However, over half of all appropriated agencies will absorb cutsof at least 15 percent for FY 11 compared to FY 09;
For most agencies and school districts, no additional funding tocover increased employee health care costs, general inflation or
rising caseloads for 2 or 3 consecutive years;
Most state agencies and school districts will continue to be hard-pressed to accomplish their core missions with reduced staffingand resources.
See OK Policys FY 11 Budget Highlights at:
http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-
information
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Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11
Impact of Cuts Even with all the additional revenue to reduce the size ofcuts , the toll on services and programs has been significant:
Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services reducedbeds and closed centers for childrens mental health and adultsubstance abuse, cut contracts to all providers;
Department of Corrections cut contracts, eliminated programs,reduced staffing to under 75 percent of authorized levels,implemented monthly furlough days;
OJA cancelled youth detention and gang prevention programs, cutproviders 5 percent, authorized 22 furlough days;
DHS cut funding for senior nutrition services;
OHCA reduced all provider rates by 3.5 percent; Health Department eliminated 17 child guidance centers serving pre-
school children with developmental delays;
School districts laid off teachers and staff, eliminated programs;
Most agencies leaving positions unfilled, offering buy-outs; someimposing furloughs.
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Looking Ahead
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: 2012 Could BeWorst Year Yet For States
Slow economic growth and loss of federal assistanceequates to ongoing and worsening problems
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Looking Ahead
Weve Gotta Admit, Its Gettin Better Revenues are showing steady improvements
-8%
-22%-19%
-21%
-28%-30%
-26%
-32%
-30%
-24%
-31% -29%
-17%
-7%
1.6%
0%
6%
2%
10%
5%6%
3%
9%
13%
20%
12%9%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Change in Monthly General Revenue Collections,Compared to Same Month Prior Year,
Jan '09 - Mar '11
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Looking Ahead
Weve Gotta Admit, Its Gettin Better All major taxes are showing a healthy recovery except theincome tax
2.0%
66.8%
53.7%
10.3%
41.2%
6.0%9.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Personal
Income Tax
Corporate
Income Tax
Gross
Production
Tax
Sales Tax Motor
Vehicle Tax
Other
Sources
Total
% Variance by Tax in General Revenue Collections from Prior Year,FY '11 vs. FY '10, YTD thru March (9 months)
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: This Aint Over FY 11 GR collections through March up 9.5 percent from FY 10 but 15.8 percent below FY 09;
Collections through March 4.2 percent above the estimate;
Official projection for full-year collections to be 1.7 percent abovethe estimate.
3,3513,156
2,953
3,3403,546
3,9934,234 4,173 4,206
3,2323,541
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10 FY '11
July- Mar. General Revenue Collections,
FY '01 - FY '11 (in Millions)
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue FY 12 General Revenue projected to be:
5.0 percent higher than FY 11
12.8 percent higher than FY 10
12.5 percent lower than FY 08
Lower than six years ago
$4,717
$4,408$4,174
$4,616
$4,966
$5,701$5,935 $5,953
$5,545
$4,600
$4,960$5,209
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10 FY '11
(proj.)
FY '12
(est.)
General Revenue Collections,FY '01 - FY '12 (in $millions)
Source: FY'01 - FY '10 - Office of State Finance Monthly Revenue Collections;FY '11 - FY '12: Board of Equalization Revenue Certification, Feb 2011
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue Modest revenue growth in FY 12 a result of:
Forecasts of an uncertain economic recovery, and
Policy decisions made in prior years, including:
Time-released tax cuts that will lower the top incometax rate from 5.5 to 5.25 percent in 2012;
Revenue impact of $38M FY 12, ~$120M FY 13
Allocation of additional $37.5M to ROADS Fund fortransportation and $6.2 million additional to OHLAP
scholarship program; Federal tax cut decisions will also impact state
revenue collections.
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue BUDGET PROJECTIONS
Revised, binding appropriations authority for FY 12 is for $6.211billion
About $500 million less than the FY 11 budget;
Increase of $106 million from initial December certification. Several state agencies will require significant funding increases
just to maintain basic operations.
Many agencies need additional funding to restore cuts to coreservices and to address the cumulative impact of several yearsof rising costs.
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue Governor Fallins Budget
$225 Million in Additional Revenue:
$100M in remaining stimulus money;
$105M from 2-year Car Tags.
$273 Million in savings from government modernizationinitiatives
$192 million from Information technology savings and ITbonding;
$70 million from hiring freezes and unfilled vacancies;
Shared services, electronic payments, other measures.
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue Governor Fallins Budget (cont.)
$201M in agency cuts:
3 percent or less to education, health, human service, publicsafety agencies;
5 percent to most administrative, regulatory and economicdevelopment agencies;
Larger cuts for agencies slated for consolidation or for thoseable to assess regulatory fees;
Her budget left $100 million unspent; revised certificationmade an additional $106 million available for appropriation;
For many agencies, even cuts limited to 3-5 percent will meancuts to core services and programs, loss of matching federalfunds.
Legislative leaders have warned of possible cuts of 5 10percent.
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue
$6,217
$6,760
$7,043$7,125
$6,959
$6,714
$6,325
$5,600
$5,800
$6,000
$6,200
$6,400
$6,600
$6,800
$7,000
$7,200
FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY '10 -
Final
FY '11 FY '12 -
proposed
State Appropriations, FY '06 - FY '12 (in $Millions)
FY 12 budget would be 11.2 percent smaller thanFY 09
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: Hard Times Continue
5.7%
5.2%
4.8%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Oklahoma State Appropriated Budget as Share of
State Personal Income, FY '81 - FY '11
Sources U.S. Bureau of Economic Affairs, State Quarterly Personal Income (estimated 1.0% growth 2nd-4th Qtr SFY 2011);
A ro riations histor rom annual Executive Bud et other sources
State appropriated spending has reached its lowestlevel in at least 30 years and is likely to fall evenfurther next year
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: No End in Sight Revenues unlikely to recover to pre-downturn nominallevels prior to FY14 under current policies
$5,938 $5,953
$5,518
$4,600
$4,912
$4,969
$5,121 $5,380
$5,643
$6,044
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
FY '07
(act.)
FY '08
(act.)
FY '09
(act.)
FY '10
(act.)
FY '11
(est.)
FY '12
(est.)
FY '13
(est.)
FY '14
(est.)
Fiscal Year
General Revenue Fund Collections, FY '07 to FY '14,Actual and OK Policy Forecasts (in $ millions)
Actual
Low
Forecast
Middle
Forecast
High
Forecast
See: "A NewFiscal Reality forOklahoma: TheState BudgetOutlook, 2011-2014; at:
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Looking Ahead
Budget Outlook: No End in Sight The prospect of continued slow revenue growth and budgetshortfalls creates a new fiscal reality that calls for newperspectives and strategies.
Create a revenue structure that supports public services:
Defer or repeal additional tax cuts;
Review and reduce tax exemptions, credits and rebates;
New revenue streams for Medicaid and treatment ofsubstance abuse;
Broaden the tax base.
Make smarter expenditure decisions: Consolidate duplicative agencies and streamline services;
Prioritize prevention and surveillance;
Ensure adequate funding of public pensions.
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For More Information
Updated Budget Information:okpolicy.org/current-budget-
information
Oklahoma Policy Institutes OnlineBudget Guide
www.okpolicy.org/online-
budget-guide
http://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guide8/7/2019 Oklahoma Budget Trends and Outlook (April 2011)
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