Oklahoma Budget Overview: Trends and Outlook, June 2010

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    OKLAHOMA BUDGET OVERVIEW

    Trends and Outlook

    FULLY UPDATED June 17, 2010

    David Blatt

    Oklahoma Policy [email protected] - (918) 794-3944

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    OUR STARTING POINTGovernment is among our means of

    achieving our common goals as astate --- alongside private businesses,non-profit organizations, faith groups

    and families.

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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    OUR STARTING POINTWithout a strong and effective public sector, ourfamilies, communities and businesses cannot thrive

    We depend on our state and local governments to

    help: Educate our children and train our workforce;

    Protect our streets and investigate crimes;

    Maintain and upgrade our roads and bridges;

    Pay for much of the medical care provided by private doctors,

    nurses, therapists, home health aides, etc.

    Inspect our water supply;

    Support our farmers, investors, and manufacturers;

    Take care of those at risk of harm and abuse.

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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    We Already Lag Behind Oklahoma already underfunds most of our publicstructures and falls short of many of our common goals asa state. For example:

    Our teacher pay is among the lowest in the nation;

    We have among the highest rates of heart disease, obesity,smoking, and uninsured;

    Our community-based social service providers have gone yearswithout rate increases;

    Our correctional facilities are overcrowded and understaffed.

    The ongoing state budget crisis risks a serious andlong-term corrosion of our public structures that willweaken our prosperity, security and well-being.

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    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

    Annual Appropriations Totals,FY 00FY 08(Includes Supplementals thru FY 08 and Rainy Day spillover Funds for

    Recurring Agency Expenditures) - in $millions

    FY 02 FY 08: Bust and BoomState budget suffered steep downturn, deep cuts, 02 - 04

    Strong economy led to robust revenue growth and increased stateappropriations between FY 06 and FY 08

    $4,981

    $5,389 $5,491$5,191 $5,145

    $5,459

    $6,217

    $6,760$7,043

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08

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    Where did the growth revenue go?

    Covering rising costs of basic services and supportingtargeted investments for shared goals;

    80 percent of new dollars went to six core agencies.

    Increased State Appropriations, Selected Agencies,FY 06 FY 08

    Dept. of Education: $453M

    Health Care Authority: $289M

    Higher Education: $271M

    Human Services: $129M

    Corrections: $80M

    Transportation: $72.5M*

    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

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    Lost Revenues from Select Tax Cuts Enacted 2004 - 2006FY'05 through FY'10 (in $ millions)

    $18.7$144.8

    $333.3

    $561.8$651.1

    $776.9

    $0.0

    $200.0

    $400.0

    $600.0

    $800.0

    FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10source : Oklahoma Tax Commission

    Tax Cuts had a long-term impact Most of the cuts were to the personal income tax

    Tax cuts were stretched out over several years; full impactwill not be felt until FY 11

    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

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    Budget Trends: FY 02 - FY 09

    FY07 FY08: Revenue Slowdown

    As tax cuts kicked in and tax breaks multiplied, GeneralRevenue collections were almost flat in FY 08 comparedto FY 07 (+%0.9, $54 million)

    -6.6%-5.3%

    10.6%

    7.6%

    14.8%

    4.0%

    0.9%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08

    Annual % Change in General Revenue Collections, FY '03 - FY '08

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    Budget Trends: FY 02 - FY 09

    FY 09 Budget: Tightening the Screws Most agencies appropriations frozen for FY 09

    No funding for benefit cost increases teacher salary increases, stateemployee raises

    FY 09 excludes supplementals and mid-year budget cut

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

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    Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Things Are Tough All Over

    All but two states are experiencing the state fiscal crisis

    Combined state budget gaps for FY 09 FY 12 estimated toreach $600 billion

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008

    Monthly Oil and Gas Prices, 1986 - 2010

    $-

    $20.00

    $40.00

    $60.00

    $80.00

    $100.00

    $120.00

    $140.00

    $160.00

    $-

    $2.00

    $4.00

    $6.00

    $8.00

    $10.00

    $12.00

    Jan-1986

    Jan-1987

    Jan-1988

    Jan-1989

    Jan-1990

    Jan-1991

    Jan-1992

    Jan-1993

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    Jan-1997

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    Jan-2002

    Jan-2003

    Jan-2004

    Jan-2005

    Jan-2006

    Jan-2007

    Jan-2008

    Jan-2009

    Jan-2010

    U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

    Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008

    See OK Policy, Numbers You Need, at:

    http://okpolicy.org/numbers-you-need-key-oklahoma-economic-and-budget-trends

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.08.0

    9.0

    10.0

    Jan-80

    Mar-81

    May-82

    Jul-83

    Sep-84

    Nov-85

    Jan-87

    Mar-88

    May-89

    Jul-90

    Sep-91

    Nov-92

    Jan-94

    Mar-95

    May-96

    Jul-97

    Sep-98

    Nov-99

    Jan-01

    Mar-02

    May-03

    Jul-04

    Sep-05

    Nov-06

    Jan-08

    Mar-09

    %Umpo

    Oklahoma Monthly Unemployment Rate(Seasonally-Adjusted), 1980-2010

    Apr 2010:

    6.6%

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008

    -5.0%

    -3.0%

    -1.0%

    1.0%

    3.0%

    5.0%

    2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4

    % Change from PriorQuarter

    Quarterly Change in Personal Income,Oklahoma and National,

    4th Quarter 2007 to 4th Quarter 2009

    U.S. Oklahoma

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its A Revenue Problem Jan 2009 Feb 2010: Revenues fell by a monthlyaverage of 23.1 percent compared to the same month forthe prior year

    Finally seeing clear signs that the downturn has hitbottom and revenues are starting to climb back

    11.1% 10.8%

    1.3%

    10.4%12.8%

    7.1%

    -8.5%

    -21.5%-19.1%

    -21.1%

    -27.7%-30.1%

    -26.3%

    -31.6%-30.1%

    -23.7%

    -30.5%-29.1%

    -16.7%

    -7.3%

    1.6%

    -0.2%

    6.0%

    -40.0%

    -30.0%

    -20.0%

    -10.0%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

    Change in Monthly General Revenue Collections, Compared to Same Month Prior Year,

    July '08 - May '10

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem For most of FY 10, monthly revenue collections have been 15to 25 percent their 5-year historical average for the same month

    Collections are recovering but remain below their pre-downturn levels

    92.0%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    120%

    130%

    Jul'08

    Aug'08

    Sep'08

    Oct'08

    Nov'08

    Dec'08

    Jan'09

    Feb'09

    Mar'09

    Apr'09

    May'09

    Jun'09

    Jul'09

    Aug'09

    Sep'09

    Oct'09

    Nov'09

    Dec'09

    Jan'10

    Feb'10

    Mar'10

    Apr'10

    May-10

    Monthly Total General Revenue Collections as % of Prior Five-Year Same-MonthAverage, July 2008 - May 2010

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem Four consecutive quarters of worsening collections

    Revenue drops more than twice as steep as during thelast downturn

    -12.1%

    9.9%

    -29.5%

    -8.3%

    -40.0%

    -20.0%

    0.0%

    20.0%

    40.0%

    Q1

    FY

    '02

    Q3

    FY

    '02

    Q1

    FY

    '03

    Q3

    FY

    '03

    Q1

    FY

    '04

    Q3

    FY

    '04

    Q1

    FY

    '05

    Q3

    FY

    '05

    Q1

    FY

    '06

    Q3

    FY

    '06

    Q1

    FY

    '07

    Q3

    FY

    '07

    Q1

    FY

    '08

    Q3

    FY

    '08

    Q1

    FY

    '09

    Q3

    FY

    '09

    Q1

    FY

    '10

    Q3

    FY

    '10

    Quarterly Year-over-Year Change in GR Collections,Oklahoma, FY '02 - FY'10 (Q3)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem FY 10 General Revenue projected to be 25 percent below pre-

    downturn (FY 08) levels;

    FY 10 GR collections less than FY 01 without adjusting forinflation or population growth

    $4,717

    $4,408

    $4,174

    $4,616

    $4,966

    $5,701

    $5,935 $5,953

    $5,518

    $4,475

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10

    (proj.)

    General Revenue Collections,FY '01 - FY '10 (in $millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem

    Between FY 08 and FY 10, GR Collections expected to fall by:

    Gross production tax : -53 percent

    Corporate income tax : -45 percent

    Personal income tax : -26 percent

    Sales tax : -8 percent

    $-

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10(Proj.) FY'11(Est.)

    Oklahoma General Revenue Collections by Major Tax,FY '06 - FY '11 (in $ millions)

    Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Gross Production

    Sales Tax Motor Vehicle

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    This is As Bad as Its Ever Been

    -

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    1982

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    Annual General Revenue Collections, in $ millions,

    FY '82 - FY '11 (FY '10 & FY'11 based on Feb. 2010 certification)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Budget: Revenues on the Skids

    5,407.2

    5,649.2

    5,981.1 5,946.45,902.7

    5,710.0

    5,356.6

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    FY '06 Actual Fy '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 June FY '09

    December

    FY '09

    February

    FY '10

    Feburary

    General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '10 Estimated (in $million)

    In February, FY 10 revenues estimated to come in >$600million below FY09 ;

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Initial Budget

    NOTE: FY 09 totals do not include June budget cuts

    $7,231.2 million total, including $641 million ARRA (stimulus)

    Increase in total appropriations of $106 million (1.5 percent)compared to FY 09

    State dollars only: $500 million less than in FY 09

    $4,981

    $5,389 $5,491

    $5,191 $5,145

    $5,459

    $6,217

    $6,760

    $7,043

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    7,000

    7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10State Appropriations ARRA

    $30ARRA

    $7,125 $7,231

    $641ARRA

    $7,095State

    $6,590State

    State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY '10 in $millions)(includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day Spillover funds)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Initial Budget Stimulus funds made it possible to minimize cuts orprovide small increases to ten largest state agencies andsome smaller ones

    Funding for 10 largest agencies up $161 million, 2.6

    percent Most smaller agencies took cuts of 5 to 7 percent

    No funding to address rising employee benefit costs orinflation (e.g. utilities, transportation, food)

    Demands for some state services increase due to thedownturn

    See: OK Policy FY 10 Budget Review at:

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-budget-information

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start Collections through January were $864 million 24.9 percent -below the estimate.

    After seven months of significant shortfalls, collections startingin February have come close to or exceeded the estimate.

    -$401

    -$180 -$200

    -$11-$72

    -$864-$1,000

    -$800

    -$600

    -$400

    -$200

    $0

    Net Income

    Tax

    Gross

    Production

    Sales Tax Motor

    Vehicle

    Other

    Sources

    Total Gen.

    Revenue

    General Revenue Collections compared toEstimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru Jan (in $millions)

    -$420

    -$26

    -$236

    -$2-$98

    -$781

    -$1,000

    -$800

    -$600

    -$400

    -$200

    $0

    Net Income

    Tax

    Gross

    Production

    Sales Tax Motor

    Vehicle

    Other

    Sources

    Total Gen.

    Revenue

    General Revenue Collections compared to

    Estimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru May (in $millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : How Large a Shortfall? February certification projected a $669 million (13.0percent) shortfall in FY 10 GR collections.

    $109 million projected shortfall in HB 1017 Fund as well

    Total mid-year shortfall of $778 million

    $5,415

    $5,145

    $4,476

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    100% Estimate - June Appropriation (95%) February Projection

    FY '10 General Revenues - Original vs.Revised Projections

    $669million

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : What Response? OSF cut agenciesGR allocations by 5 percent beginning inAugust and by 10 percent beginning in December

    Cuts were across-the-board based on GR allocations

    Since some agencies are partly or fully appropriated fromother funds (i.e. 1017 Fund, State Transportation Fund,ARRA), agencies are not all affected equally

    Cuts limited to less than shortfall through by borrowing fromcash reserves of various funds that must be repaid

    $320.9 million borrowed in first 7 months of the year

    Fully repaid by May

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : What Response? Rainy Day Fund was filled to maximum amount of $597million

    Left untouched for initial FY 10 budget

    $157.5

    $340.9

    $72.3

    $0.1

    $217.5

    $461.3$496.7

    $571.6$596.6

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600$700

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Rainy Day Fund Balances, FY '01 - FY '09(opening balance in $ millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : What Response? Rainy Day Fund can be accessed as follows:

    3/8th for a mid-year shortfall in GR collections; ($224M)

    3/8th for a projected decline in GR collections for the comingyear compared to the current year ($224M);

    1/4th upon declaration of an emergency and legislative approval($149M)

    Current Year

    RevenueFailure, 37.5% -

    $224M

    Forthcoming

    Year Shortfall,

    37.5% - $224M

    Emergency,

    25.0% - $149M

    Uses of Constitutional

    Reserve Fund

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Mid-Year Budget AgreementAgreements announced by Governor, Speaker andPresident Pro Tem in January and February

    Continued 10 percent monthly cuts to GR for rest of year

    Averages out to 7.5 percent of GR for full year

    Supplemental funding to various agencies to offset part of GRand HB 1017 shortfalls (Common Ed, Higher Ed, OHCA,Corrections, others)

    After supplementals, mid-year cuts equaled $272 million (3.8percent)

    Additional revenues needed to balance: $223.7 million of Rainy Day Fund (3/8th), $151 million more

    stimulus money, plus additional gross production taxrevenues and other sources

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Total revised budget was $272 million (3.8%) less thaninitial; $165 million (2.4%) less than FY 09;

    Almost $1.5billion (21%) of revised FY 10 budget madeup of non-recurring money

    $6,793

    $6,220$5,462

    $301

    $371

    $435

    $30$641

    $838

    $224

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY '09 FY '10 - Initial FY '10 - Revised

    State Recurring Cash Stimulus (ARRA) Rainy Day Fund

    State Appropriations, FY '09 - FY '10,

    Total and by Funding Source (in $millions)

    Total= $7,124 million Total= $7,231 millionTotal= $6,959 million

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Agencies funded in whole or in part with non-GR fundsand those receiving supplementals absorbed less than full 7.5percent cut

    FY '10 Budget Cuts: 12 Largest Agencies, Total Budget

    Agency

    FY '09 (Final) -

    FY '10 (Final)

    FY '10 (Initial) -

    FY '10 (Final)Mental Health -10.0% -7.2%

    District Courts -9.6% -2.8%

    Health Department -8.2% -7.4%

    Public Safety -8.1% -4.3%

    Career Tech -7.6% -7.3%

    Juvenile Affairs -7.2% -7.3%

    Transportation -7.0% -7.5%

    Human Services -6.6% -5.7%

    Corrections -5.3% -5.3%

    Common Education -3.4% -4.9%

    ALL AGENCIES -2.8% -4.2%

    Higher Education -0.2% -3.1%

    Health Care Authority 12.4% 0.1%

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10: Impact of Cuts Even with all the additional revenue to reduce the size ofcuts , the toll on services and programs has been significant:

    Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services reducedbeds and closed centers for childrens mental health and adultsubstance abuse, cut contracts to all providers;

    OJA cancelled youth detention and gang prevention programs, cutproviders 5 percent, authorized 22 furlough days;

    OHCA cut some Medicaid benefits and reduced all provider rates by3.5 percent;

    Health Department eliminated 17 child guidance centers serving pre-school children with developmental delays

    Department of Corrections cut contracts, eliminated programs,reduced staffing to under 75 percent of authorized levels;

    School districts eliminating programs, some going to 4-day weeks;

    DA offices prosecuting fewer criminals;

    Most agencies leaving positions unfilled, offering buy-outs; manyimposing furloughs.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates FY 11 revenue collections projected to grow onlyslightly from FY 10 and to remain almost 25 percentbelow pre-downturn (FY 08) levels

    $5,714

    $5,928 $5,981

    $5,519$5,415

    $ 4,475

    $4,579

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    FY '06 Actual FY '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 Actual FY '10 (June

    estimated)

    FY '10 (Feb

    projected)

    FY '11 (Feb

    estimated)

    General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '11 Estimated (in $ millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates Final FY 11 certification provided $1.8 billion lessrevenue for next year than FY 10 initial budget , $1.5billion less than final FY 10 budget

    $7,043 $7,124$7,231

    $6,452

    $6,959

    $5,294 $5,415

    $6,797

    $4,000

    $5,000

    $6,000

    $7,000

    $8,000

    FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -

    initial

    budget

    FY '10 -

    projected

    revenues

    (Feb)

    FY '10 -

    Revised

    FY '11 -

    Certified

    State $

    (Dec)

    FY '11 -

    Certified

    State $

    (Feb)

    FY '11 -

    Gov

    Budget

    State Appropriations, FY'08-FY '11(includes all revenues and supplementals;

    in $ millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates To budget the balance, Gov. Henry proposed:

    Annualizing and increasing FY10 cuts by an additional 0.5percent to 3 percent for all agencies.

    Using remaining stimulus funds and a portion of remaining

    Rainy Day Funds. Savings from consolidating agencies and IT services.

    New bond issues.

    Enhanced tax collection proposals, particularly increased salestax collections on Internet sales and automated enforcement of

    vehicle insurance;

    Eliminating and suspending various tax credits;

    Increases in fees and permits.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates 2010 Session focused on which, if any, revenue measures wouldbe adopted to bridge the budget gap.

    Assuming maintenance of FY 10 budget cuts, the use of allremaining stimulus funds and 3/8ths of Rainy Day Fund, FY 11budget gap exceeded $800 million.

    Equivalent to an additional 12 percent cuts to all agencies ofstate government beyond the cuts already enacted.

    Agency scenarios of how to absorb cuts of an additional 7.5percent to 15 percent in FY 11 left no doubt of the grave threatsthat would be posed to the state economy and to the health and

    security of Oklahomans. Many cuts would be multiplied by loss of federal matching

    funds.

    See OK Policy, Bridging the Budget Gap,:http://okpolicy.org/files/bridgingthegap_1pg.pdf

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement Total appropriations for FY 11 = $6.714 billion. 7.2 percent decrease (-$517.5 million) from the initial FY 10

    budget and 3.5 percent decrease (-$245.4 million) from thefinal FY 10 budget after mid-year cuts

    $4,906

    $5,389$5,412

    $4,922$5,073

    $5,240

    $6,217

    $6,760$7,043

    $7,095

    $6,590

    $5,897 $5,802

    $219

    $30

    $641

    $838

    $539

    $75

    $79

    $269 $72

    $224

    $373

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -

    Initial

    FY '10

    - Final

    FY '11

    FIG. 1: State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY 11(in $millions; FY '00-FY'10 includes supplementals, excludes one-times from

    Rainy Day Spillover Funds )

    State Revenues Federal Relief Rainy Day Fund

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget AgreementAppropriated over $1.35 billion in additional revenues ontop of those certified in February. These included:

    $539 million from the 2009 stimulus bill

    Remaining $373 from the Rainy Day Fund

    $450 million from assorted revenue enhancements

    Suspending and deferring payment of tax credits

    Issuing and refinancing bonds

    Fee and permit increases

    Transfers of cash balances

    About $225 million of the total $1.35 billion in additionalrevenue is recurring; the rest is one-time

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement

    Common Ed.,$2,375.6 , 35%

    Higher Ed.,$1,003.5 , 15%

    OHCA (Medicaid),$993.0 , 15%

    DHS, $543.1 , 8%

    Corrections, $462.1, 7%

    Transportation,$114.8 , 2%

    Mental Health,$187.7 , 3%

    Career Tech, $142.0, 2%

    Juv. Affairs, $99.2 ,1%

    Public Safety, $88.4, 1%

    All Other Agencies,$704.3 , 11%

    TotalAppropriations:$6,713.7 millionIncludes stimulus,Rainy Day Fund

    Total TenLargest:$6,009.4,89.5%

    Notes:Transportation also received$65 from bond issue;OHCA includes $30m transferfrom Insure Oklahoma Fund;excludes Health Carrier Access

    Agency Appropriations 10 Largest, Others, Total

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement Funding cuts limited to under 10 percent for most of the largeststate agencies;

    However, over half of all appropriated agencies will absorb cutsof at least 15 percent for FY 11 compared to FY 09.

    In some cases, appropriations cuts have been partly offset byfee increases. In addition, the Legislature has approved measuresto promote savings and efficiencies and give agencies and schooldistricts greater flexibility

    For most agencies and school districts, no additional funding tocover increased employee health care costs, general inflation or

    rising caseloads.

    Cuts, furloughs, hiring freezes, layoffs will continue in FY 11

    See OK Policys FY 11 Budget Highlights at:

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-

    information

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: No Quick Recovery Revenues unlikely to recover to pre-downturn nominallevels prior to FY 13

    $5,928 $5,981

    $5,544

    $4,439

    $4,735

    $5,275

    $5,945

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    FY 07 (act.)FY 08 (act.)FY 09 (act.)FY 10 (est.)FY 11 (est.)FY 12 (est.)FY 13 (est.)

    R

    n$mio

    Fiscal Year

    Historical and Projected Revenue, FY'07-FY'13General Revenue Fund

    Estimates by OKPolicy - not based onFeb 2010

    certification

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: No Quick Recovery Substantial reliance in FY10 11 on non-recurringrevenue creates significant problems for FY 12 and FY 13

    Time-released tax cuts still kicking in

    Top rate will fall from 5.5% to 5.25% as soon asrevenues are projected to grow 4%... even if revenuesremain below pre-downturn levels

    Additional revenues automatically allocated for ROADSand OHLAP

    Possible passage of SQ 744 (mandatory K-12 educationfunding increases) could throw everything into chaos

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Short-Term Recommendations1. Defer additional tax cuts until revenues fully recover

    2. Serious review of tax credits and exemptions to determinewhich are needed and effective

    3. Consider new revenue streams for the Medicaid program

    4. Consolidation of functions and agencies where duplicativeor unnecessary

    5. Prioritize prevention, diversion and surveillance overdetention

    6. Prepare for next downturn by strengthening our reservefunds and improving our forecasting capacities

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    Structural deficit: Asituation that occurswhen a states normal

    growth of revenues isinsufficient to finance

    the normal growth ofexpenditures year afteryear

    (CBPP, Faulty Foundations: State Structural

    Budget Problems)

    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

    Oklahoma like most states and the federal government faces a looming structural budget deficit

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    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

    Projected Annual Budget Surpluses and Deficits

    Before and After 2004-2006 Tax Cuts (2007 to 2035)

    (2,500)

    (2,000)

    (1,500)

    (1,000)

    (500)

    0

    500

    1,000

    2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035Y e a r

    Mion$2005

    B e f o r e T a x C u t s

    A f t e r T a x C u t s

    Oklahomas Structural Deficit

    Source: Projections conducted in 2007 by Dr. Kent Olson, Professor ofEconomics, Oklahoma State University

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    Long-Term Recommendations1. Serious review of our tax system

    2. Scrutinize our programs and spendingcommitments

    3. Give control for making decisions about revenuesand spending back to our elected representatives

    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

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    For More Information

    Updated Budget Information:okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-

    11budget-information

    Oklahoma Policy Institutes OnlineBudget Guide

    www.okpolicy.org/online-

    budget-guide

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-information
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    Contact Information

    Oklahoma Policy InstituteP.O. Box 14347Tulsa, OK 74159-1437

    (918) 794-3944

    [email protected]

    Better Information, Better Policywww.okpolicy.org

    We are a 501(c)(3) funded by grants and contributions

    from individuals, organizations and businesses. Pleaseconsider a tax-deductible contribution to support ourwork. You can donate from our website or send a checkto the above address. Thank you!

    mailto:[email protected]://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/mailto:[email protected]