G A RY W. M AT K I N, P H . D. , D E A NC O N T I N U I N G E D U C AT I O N, D I S TA N C E L E A R N I N G A N D S U M M E R S E S S I O N

U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A , I RV I N E

N C SE O N L I N E W E B I N A RD E C E M B E R 2 0 , 2 0 1 2

Why MOOCs Are Good for Higher Education

(And What MOOCs Will Make Your University Do)

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Summary of Converging Themes

1. The commercialization of OpenCourseWare

2. The creation of low cost degrees

Summary of Emerging Themes

1. Improving teaching and learning through online delivery

2. Concentration on assessments3. The proliferation of open materials4. The incorporation of open material

in "regular" (or traditional) degrees5. The creation of viable and sustained

learning communities

THE WORLD-WIDE AND DESPERATE NEED FOR LOW-COST

HIGHER EDUCATION

Low Cost Degrees

By 2025, 98 million graduates of secondary education WILL NOT be able to attend college

To serve these students, 4 large campuses, serving 30,000 students, would have to be built EVERY WEEK for the next 15 years

The Cost of Degrees in the U.S.

Tuition, Fees, and Living

ENROLLMENT

Public 2-year 10,550 7,285,000

Public 4-Year $17,860 9,925,000

Private 4-Year $39,518 3,822,000

For Profit 4-Year

$15,172 (Room and Board not included)

2,426,000

SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012

Inflation-Adjusted Published Tuition and Fees Relative to 1982‑83, 1982‑83 to 2012‑13 (1982‑83

=100)

SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2012, Figure 5.

The Personal Cost and Peril

Imagine a World in Which

everyonecould learn

anything anywhereanytime

for

free

Communication/Interaction (Web 2.0)Skype Facebook Twitter

Content/InformationWikipedia Google iTunes YouTube

Learning PathwaysConnexions Flat World

KnowledgeKahn

AcademyMerlotOCWC

Commoditization Pushes the “Value Proposition” to the Periphery

The Growth and Development of Open Education Channels

1. Early Repositories Merlot Connexions Subject-matter based

2. OpenCourseWare MIT OCWC UCI

3. Utilities YouTube iTunes

4. Open Textbooks

The Growth and Development of Open Education Channels

Open Repositories Merlot: 38,000 learning objects Connexions: 17,000 learning objects, 2 million

visits per monthOpenCourseWare

MIT: 2,100 courses, 1 million visits per month OCW Consortium: 25,000 courses, 250 +

institutional members UC Irvine OCW: 90 courses, 300 video lectures,

1,700 learning objects

The Growth and Development of Open Education Channels

Utilities YouTube EDU: 700,000 video lectures iTunes U: 500,000 video lectures

Open Text Books

MOOCs

STANFORD STARTS THE BALL ROLLING

MOOCs

March 2011 Stanford’s Sebastian Thrun attends Ted talk by Salmon Kahn

July 2011 Thrun and Norwig announce the Stanford AI course

October 2011

New York Times front page article on the AI course enrollments

December 2011

Udacity and MITx launched

January 2012

Kohler and Ng of Stanford launch Coursera with $16 million in VC funds

May 2012 MIT and Harvard announce edX with $60 million in start up funding

July 2012 Coursera has 16 universities and 100 courses

August 2012 Coursera hits 1 million students

September 2012

Coursera expands to 33 institutions offering 200 courses

November 2012

Coursera announces its partnership with ACE

Last Fall 2011 over 160,000 Students, in 190 Countries,

Enrolled

The Response

Coursera was launched on April 18, 2012Coursera has raised over $16 million in

funding33 University Partners, 1.7 million followers,

200 courses No solid business plan developedUses cohort modelWants to present the “world’s best courses”Admits only elite universities: “top 50”

Coursera Partners Stanford University University of Michigan University of Pennsylvania Princeton University Berklee College of Music Brown University Columbia University Emory University Hebrew University of

Jerusalem The Hong Kong University of

Science and Technology Mount Sinai School of Medicine Ohio State University The University of British

Columbia University of California, Irvine University of Florida University of London

International Programmes

University of Maryland, College Park

University of Melbourne University of Pittsburgh Vanderbilt University Wesleyan University California Institute of Technology Duke University École Polytechnique Fédérale

de Lausanne Georgia Institute of Technology Johns Hopkins University Rice University University of California, San

Francisco University of Edinburgh University of Illinois at Urbana-

Champaign University of Toronto University of Virginia University of Washington

How Does Coursera Plan to Make Money in the Future?

CertificationsOffering "Secure Assessments”Employee RecruitingEmployee or University ScreeningTutoring or Manual GradingCorporate/University Enterprise ModelSponsorshipsSelling Courses to Community CollegesCharging Tuition

The Unstated Monetization Models

AdvertisingSelling student data/personal informationSelling ancillary materials

Slightly more than 1/2 of students state they selected their classes

because they expect it to be enjoyable; nearly the same number also state the course they selected relates to their current or future

career plans

I think this course will be fun and enjoyable

This class relates to my future career plans

This subject is relevant to my academic field of study

I want to earn a credential to add to my resume/CV

This class relates to my current employment or career

I'm curious about what it's like to take an online course

I selected this course because it was developed by the University

of California, Irvine

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Founded May 2012Harvard and MIT are founding partners with $60

million in backingCurrently offers HarvardX, MITx and BerkeleyX

classes online for freeBeginning in Summer 2013, edX will also offer

UTx (University of Texas) classes online for freeThe UT System is making a $5 million investment

in the edX platformMore than 150,000 students from over 160

countries registered for Circuits and Electronics

More About edX

Certificates of completion will be issued by edX under the name of the underlying "X University" from where the course originated, i.e. HarvardX, MITx or BerkeleyX

The certificates for courses completed in Fall 2012 will be free

There are plans to charge a modest fee for certificates in the future

Launched April 2o12800,000 students in 16 Open CoursesNot a cohort model, Start Class at any Time, Self-

PacedCourses Categorized by Beginning, Intermediate,

AdvancedUpon completing a course, students receive a

certificate of completion indicating their level of achievement, signed by the instructors, at no cost. 50,000 certificates of completion issued as of October 2012

Not yet institutionally-sponsored

The Udacity Model: Plans for Monetizing

Plans to monetize its “students’ skills” Udacity will help with job placement by

selling student leads to recruitersFinal exams are proctored for a feeFurther plans for certification options would

include a "secured online examination" as a less expensive alternative to the in-person proctored exams

OCW, MOOCs, and the Universal Degree

Excelsior and SaylorUniversity of Washington and CourseraAntioch and CourseraACE and Coursera

The deal represents one of the first instances of a third-party institution buying permission to incorporate a MOOC into its curriculum — and awarding credit for the MOOC.

Coursera and ACE

Coursera’s Partnership with ACE will allow the evaluation/assessment of learning and credit recommendations for about five of its courses

Learners can receive an ACE transcriptThese credits can, at the discretion of the accepting

institution, be accepted toward a degreeOver 2,000 of the nation’s some 4,600 colleges and

universities already accept ACE-generated creditsFor the first time, a nationally recognized academic

credit “bank” is available to students of OCW

Predictions About Effects of MOOCs on Higher Education: The MACRO Level

MOOCs will:1. Help higher education institutions, especially the

elite institutions, embrace online education in all its forms, including in classroom-based instruction

2. Rapidly advance the creation and use of open educational resources (OER)

3. Increase the use of transfer credits in the achieving of degrees

4. Help lower the cost of higher education

Predictions About Effects of MOOCs on Higher Education: The MACRO Level

MOOCs will:5. Be an important factor in the use of new

instructional technology by all institutions to improve teaching and learning

6. Promote peer to peer interactions and the learning associated with them and speed the development of viable online learning communities

7. Speed the value, legitimacy, and use of degree-alternative certifications in both personal and employment-related learning projects

8. Promote the use of competency-based assessments for degree and non-degree education

Predictions About Effects of MOOCs on Higher Education: The MICRO Level

MOOCs will:1. Continue to proliferate as will the “channels” and

the number of institutions engaged in them, to become a permanent feature of the higher education landscape

2. Content will be the most significant driver of MOOC enrollments (what do I want to know?)

3. Elite universities will engage in MOOCs for reputational and revenue generating reasons

4. Second and third tier institutions will engage in MOOCs to reduce costs

Predictions About Effects of MOOCs on Higher Education: The MICRO Level

MOOCs will:5. The average enrollment size of MOOCs will decline

as MOOCs proliferate6. MOOC channels, and institutional contributors will

specialize along subject matter lines7. All LMS technologies will incorporate functions and

utilities to serve MOOCs8. MOOC technology, channels, and institutions will

continue to add service features for the learner, some of which will be free and some of which will require the payment of a fee

Predictions About Effects of MOOCs on Higher Education: The MICRO Level

MOOCs will:9. The ‘monetization” strategies of MOOC channels

will soon become obvious and will feature learning assessment, advertising, data selling, and associated services (tutoring, the sale of supplemental learning materials, the tying of learning assessments to degrees and employment opportunities)

10. Universities will receive enough revenue to cause them to continue to supply content

11. All universities will become more flexible in accepting non-traditional learning assessments for transfer credit

Elements for Successfully Implementing Online and Open Education on Your Campus

1. Institutionalized Receptivity will: Flexible staff willing to make changes An inventory/history of open content Technical infrastructure People and skill sets Institutional credibility Administrative structure Money to invest OER and OCW National and International contacts Technical capacity Responsible resource allocation planning

CONTACT KATHY TAM AT KSTAM@UCI .EDU

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The Institutional Case for OCW

1. Serve current students (supports teaching and learning)2. Attract new students3. Support faculty in both course authoring and delivery4. Facilitate accountability and aid continuous improvement5. Advance institutional recognition and reputation6. Support the public service role of institutions7. Disseminate the results of research and thereby attract

research funding8. Serve as a repository for a wide range of digital assets9. Serve learning communities of all types10. Enhance international service and reputation11. Serves as a mechanism for fundraising