Motor Vehicle Pollution Control:Emissions Vs. Efficiency

Getting the Principles Right

July 24, 2013July 24, 2013

Michael P. WalshMichael P. WalshInternational ConsultantInternational Consultant

Founding ChairmanFounding ChairmanBoard of Directors,Board of Directors,

International Council on Clean International Council on Clean TransportationTransportation

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Air Pollution Remains Very Serious in Many CountriesEspecially PM2.5 And O3

Lelieveld, J., and F. J. Dentener (2000)

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Van Donkelaar et al. (2010)

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PM2.5

O3

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India: Many Cities Substantially Exceed WHO India: Many Cities Substantially Exceed WHO and Indian Air Quality Guidelinesand Indian Air Quality Guidelines

India Standard: 60µg/m3

Top 20 Mortality Risk Factors in India for 2010Top 20 Mortality Risk Factors in India for 2010Ambient PMAmbient PM2.52.5 is 5is 5thth leading mortality risk leading mortality risk

factorfactor

Ambient PM2.5 caused an estimated 627,000 deaths̴ 6% of all

deaths in 2010

55Source; WMO GHG Bulletin Number 8

CO2 Reached 400 PPM in the Last Few Weeks!

We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change

Arctic Ice MeltArctic Ice Melt

Increasing Droughts

Subtropics expected to expand with global warming.

Observations show 4 degrees of latitude expansion.

Fires Are Increasing WorldFires Are Increasing World--WideWide

BC: Linking Climate and Air PollutionBC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution

• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM)

– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and

biomass, and is a major component of “soot”– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most

strongly linked to adverse health effects

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Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2

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Black Carbon is the Core of Diesel PMBlack Carbon is the Core of Diesel PM

Historical High Growth Has Resulted In Historical High Growth Has Resulted In Vehicles Being Important Contributor To Vehicles Being Important Contributor To

Local, Regional and Global PollutionLocal, Regional and Global Pollution

Looking Ahead, High Growth Is Looking Ahead, High Growth Is Anticipated, Placing Continued Pressure Anticipated, Placing Continued Pressure

On The EnvironmentOn The Environment

Note Especially Chinaand India

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Other Special Concerns With VehiclesJune 2012 - WHO Classifies Diesel Engine Exhaust

As Group 1 Known Carcinogen

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Other Special Concern:Widespread Other Special Concern:Widespread Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in

Urban AreasUrban Areas

Transport Pollutionis Ubiquitous

What Can We Do About It?What Can We Do About It?Elements of a ComprehensiveElements of a Comprehensive

Vehicle Pollution Control StrategyVehicle Pollution Control Strategy

Better Air QualityBetter Air Quality

Clean Vehicle

Technologies

Low Low EmissionsEmissions

CleanFuels

Transportation & Land use Planning

Appropriate Maintenance

Technology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesTechnology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesU.S. and Europe LightU.S. and Europe Light--Duty VehicleDuty Vehicle

Emission StandardsEmission Standards

80

60 60 43

12

250

180

80

43

12

250

50 45 62 62

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 U.S. Tier 2,Bin 5

ARBSULEV

Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 10

2005 2009 20142007/2009

mg/km

Euro 5+ (2011) and 6 include 6 X 1011/km particle number limitEuro 6 PM mass limit uses revised PMP mass protocol

Technology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesTechnology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesU.S. and Europe HeavyU.S. and Europe Heavy--Duty Engine Duty Engine Transient Cycle Emission StandardsTransient Cycle Emission Standards

3.50

2.00

0.40

1.50

0.65

0.26

3.0

3.0

1.0 1.

3

1.3

1.3

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010(maxNOx)

U.S. 2010(std.)

Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100

2005 2008 2013

g/kWh

Euro VI includes particle number limit

Even Starting To Be Phased in For Off Road Vehicles

Require PM and NOx aftertreatment

Require PM aftertreatment

Slide 19Slide 19

A Critical Technology: A Critical Technology: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs)Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs)

Trapped SootTrapped SootCell PlugsCell Plugs

Exhaust InExhaust In(PM, CO, HC)(PM, CO, HC)

Exhaust Out Exhaust Out (CO(CO22, H, H22O)O)

*Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO

*Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)

2020

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Benefits of Reducing Vehicle EmissionsBenefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions

• Shindell et al. (2011) estimate adopting European vehicle standards in India, China, and other industrializing and developing countries could lead to:– 120,000-280,000 avoided premature

deaths in 2030 (valued at $0.6-2.4 trillion in 2006 USD)

– Mitigation of 0.2°C (+0.14°C/-0.17°C) Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical warming during 2040-2070

– 6.1 – 19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone related yield losses of major food crops

Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, M. Walsh, S.C. Anenberg, R. Van Dingenen, N.Z. Muller, J. Austin, D. Koch, G. Milly. 2011. Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle emissions standards, Nature Climate Change, 1:59-66.

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Starting To Make Policy Progress on COStarting To Make Policy Progress on CO22..

US 2025:109�Canada 2025:109�

EU 2020: 95�

Japan 2020: 105�China 2020: 117�

S. Korea 2015: 153�

Mexico 2016: 173�

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Solid dots and lines: historical performance �Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets �Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets�Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study�

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California Continues Technology Leadership

Model Year

NMOG+N

Ox (g/m

i)

150,000‐mile New Vehicle Fleet Average Emissions

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LEV III Particulate Matter Standards

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Evaporative Emissions

• Extend zero‐evaporative emissionrequirements currently in place for PZEVs to the entire light‐duty vehicle fleet by MY 2022

• Extend Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery(ORVR) requirements to all complete vehicles less than 14,000 pounds GVWR

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Climate Action ProgramClimate Action ProgramCalifornia California

Major Source of GHG Actions Taken

Passenger vehicles (LDV) GHG emission standards: 50% reduction by 2025

Electric vehicles (LDV) ZEV mandate; 15% of new sales by 2025

Heavy trucks (new) National standards for engines/tractors: 9-23% reduction by 2017

Heavy truck (in-use, California) Trailer aerodynamic devices: 5% reduction by 2016

Electricity 33% renewable by 2020

Combustion, fuels Cap and trade program, 2 auctions, $13/ton

2828

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

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On-

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ehic

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Path to 2050: Path to 2050: CaliforniaCalifornia’’s Ons On--Road Vehicle FleetRoad Vehicle Fleet

Conventional Vehicles

Plug-In Hybrids

Hydrogen Fuel Cell & Battery Electric

Hybrids 79%

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Countries Must Be Decisive!Countries Must Be Decisive!China Announces A Clean Fuels China Announces A Clean Fuels

RoadmapRoadmapState Council Says:State Council Says:

50 PPM Sulfur Nationwide by End of 201450 PPM Sulfur Nationwide by End of 201410 PPM by End of 201710 PPM by End of 2017

Even Quicker in Key RegionsEven Quicker in Key Regions

Brazil Leapfrogs While Chile Innovates: PROCONVE

Santiago Adopts EURO III Bus Standards PLUS Particulate Filters

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Berlin Leads On Environmental ZonesBerlin Leads On Environmental ZonesRestrict Vehicles; Stimulate Clean UpRestrict Vehicles; Stimulate Clean Up

Stage 1 from 1.1. 2008:Vehicles (lorries and passenger cars) must at least meet the requirements of Pollutant Class 2 of the national vehicle label schemeTherefore, vehicles with red, yellow and green stickers are allowed.

Stage 2 from 1.1.2010:Only vehicles in Pollutant Class 4—thus, only vehicles with green stickers—can drive in the zone.

The environmental zone covers Berlin’s inner city within the urban railway ring. It is an area of approximately 88 km2, which is especially densely developed. Approximately one million of Berlin’s 3.4 million inhabitants live here.

New Ideas Must Be TriedNew Ideas Must Be TriedHeavy Duty Diesel I/M ConceptHeavy Duty Diesel I/M Concept

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Complementary Measures: Key Types Complementary Measures: Key Types Of Financial Approaches To Reduce Of Financial Approaches To Reduce Emission Levels From Road VehiclesEmission Levels From Road Vehicles

vehicle tax

registration tax annual tax

tax feebate tax feebate

fuel tax

financial approaches

© OECD/IEA 2011

The original Bonus/Malus

It was announced in Sept 2007, to start in January 2008, designed to be €€€ neutral-5gCO2/km every 2 yearsSpecial Bonus for hybrids and LPG : 2000 €

CO2, g/km  Barème, €>250 2600

De 201 à 250  1600De 166 à 200  750De 161 à 165  200De 131 à 160  0De 121 à 130  200De 101 à 120  700De 61 à 100  1000

<60 5000

Malus

Bonus

(If under 110 gCO2/km)

French Feebate System Led To French Feebate System Led To Significant Drop In COSignificant Drop In CO22 EmissionsEmissions

2001–2007 avg. reduction new vehicle CO2 = 1 g/km per year2008: emissions drop 9 g/km and 2009 by 7 g/km, Ministry of Transport attributes to introduction of bonus/malus system

Source: Les véhicules particuliers en France (Ademe), March 2011

© OECD/IEA 2011

Impact on other characteristics

Average weight and power decreased fast

Source: Ademe

Feebate Vs. Fuel Economy Feebate Vs. Fuel Economy Regulation?Regulation?

vehicle regulation“PUSH”

manufacturers

vehicle taxation“PULL”customers

provides certainty of fuel consumption decrease

provides certainty of cost effectiveness

Important Role of Complementary Policies

Today, At Least 16 Countries Have Some Form Of Today, At Least 16 Countries Have Some Form Of COCO22 Or Fuel Efficiency Tax On LightOr Fuel Efficiency Tax On Light--duty Vehicles. duty Vehicles.

• New vehicle purchase or registration:– Austria, Canada, Finland, France, Ireland,

Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, U.S.A.• Annual or recurring registration fee:

– Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Sweden, UK

• Sources: N.A. Braathen, 2010. “Incentives for CO2 Emission Reductions in Current Motor Vehicle Taxes”, ENV/EPOC/WPNEP/T(2009)2/FINAL, Environment Directorate, OECD, Paris.

• H. He and A. Bandivadekar, 2011. “A Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies Associated with New Passenger Vehicle CO2 Emissions”, ICCT, February.

COCO22 Labeling In Combination With COLabeling In Combination With CO22 TaxTax

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Bellagio Principles Should Guide Bellagio Principles Should Guide PolicymakersPolicymakers

• Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel

• Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System

• Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

Thank You