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The Institute of Fundraising INSIGHT Special Interest Group 

Bob Francis - NSPCCBen Hewitt - MarketShare

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Background

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My Journey to supporting Oxfam

We were measuring what we could measure Econometrics enables us to measure what we should measure

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About MarketShare

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Key Challenges:

•Proliferation of consumer touch points and devices

•Users consumer several media at once

•Increasing importance and share of consumer time spent on digital media

•Reliance on the Internet

•Smarter consumers

Marketing Environment has exploded in complexity

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2011

Cable TVPersonal ComputerVideo GamesDVRSatellite TV3D TVOnline Radio Online TVBlogsPodcastsBlogsPortalsAd NetworksMMORP GamesInstant MessengersSocial NetworksMobile GamingMobile VideoMobile ComputersEmailSearcheBooksDigital BillboardsNewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies

1950

NewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies

1990

Cable TVPersonal ComputerVideo GamesNewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies

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Moving beyond swim lanes

ROI should be measured holistically rather than in silos

“When I add up the ROIs of each silo, the company is twice as big as it actually is.”

Print TV

$

ROI

$

ROI

Display

$

ROI

Search

$

ROI

Social

$

ROI

Print TV Display Search Social

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With Severe economic pressures…

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Decision making is being transformed

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.

•Linking Marketing and Finance

•Predictive data analysis

•Insights translated to actionable recommendations

•Cloud based Business intelligence

•Integration of the value chain from planning to execution and reporting

•Focus on Business Outcomes and Business Optimization

The Future

Source: IBM

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We’re experiencing the Perfect Storm

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.

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Moving well beyond first generation of analytics and modeling methods:

• Higher accuracy

• Strong predictability

• Prescriptive actions

• Real-time course correction

• Long and short term effects

• Social media effects

And moving Beyond Analytics 1.0:

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Eco System

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About the Project

• To understand and quantify the effectiveness of NSPCC’s marketing and media spend in driving New Regular and New Cash Donations

• To understand the role of NSPCC’s paid and owned media (website) in driving new donations

• To build models for each response channel to understand the drivers of each

• To optimise the marketing and media mix to generate greater donation value from the same level of investment

Objectives

Methodology

• Using NSPCC’s internal and proprietary data (June 2007 – June 2010)• Donations – Volume and Value• Campaigns and PR• Website data (visitors)• Marketing and Media costs

And data from a variety of other internal & external sources (including search volume

data from Google insights for search) Multiple econometric models (multiplicative logarithmic time

series) were constructed to understand total Marketing response by media channel and inform future optimal media resource allocation

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Method in Detail

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Online Search /Queries

NSPCC Website Traffic

The Economy

Donations

Child Related News & Publicity

Direct RelationshipsDirect Relationships

Indirect RelationshipsIndirect Relationships

Competition / Share of Wallet

Comms AdsAcquisition Ads

DRTV Press Inserts

Online Displa

y

Door drops

Cold mail

Warm mail

Face to face

Door to door

Outbound TM

NSPCC PR

Direct and Indirect response

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NSPCC Website Traffic

The Economy

Donations

Child Related News & Publicity

Direct RelationshipsDirect Relationships

Indirect RelationshipsIndirect Relationships

Competition / Share of Wallet

Comms AdsAcquisition Ads

DRTV Press Inserts

Online Displa

y

Door drops

Cold mail

Warm mail

Face to face

Door to door

Outbound TM

NSPCC PR

NSPCC Modelling Framework

Online Search /Queries

MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 15

New Regular Giving Analysis

What are the key drivers of New Regular Giving donors?

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Understanding the Drivers of New Regular Giving

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Base Donations 21%

Seasonality 2%

New Regular Giving

Online Brand Interest 6.5%

Social Media 2%

TV Acquisition 30%

Face2Face 15%

Cold telemarketing 11%Door Drops 4%

Other = 8%

Including Publicity

(PR 1.5%)

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The Drivers of New Regular Giving Donors

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* Lift Factor is defined as a measure of responsiveness:elasticity = % change in the outcome for % change in the driver

Acquisition TV is the strongest Marketing Driver, followed by media coverage and campaigning of child abuse issues.

Cold Telemarketing, Face to Face, TV (Comms) and Facebook also appear to significantly drive donations

There are many other drivers positively driving donations including Door Drops and Publicity.

Driver Effectiveness (Lift Factor)

Non-Marketing DriverBlank ColourColour Marketing Driver

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The Role of Online

Understanding the true contribution of online search and website visits for Regular Giving

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Linear Measurement for New Regular Giving

Linear attribution reports:

Don’t understand these channels…..

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The models uncover the indirect impact of online

13%

Online search and web-traffic visits are driving two major offline channels: forms and

Inbound

Total impact of online

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18%Total online contribution to

Forms donations

Indirect Online impact

Branded Search ‘NSPCC’ is one of the strongest drivers of

donations via Forms

Understanding the value of online driving forms

18% of the NSPCC new regular donations through Door Drops/forms is driven by the web

Drivers of Forms

Better Out Than In – Childline

Brand online Search

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Using this work to increase donations

The direct/indirect approach enables us to allocate marketing resources in an optimal way

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Using the Optimal Media MixScenario 1: Financial Year 2009/2010 (April-March)

With the same budget a more optimal mix delivers a 10% increase in donations

OptimalFY 2009/10

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Summary

The direct/indirect approach enables us to allocate marketing resources in an optimal way

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Summary & Conclusions

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1 NSPCC’s advertising and marketing investment is performing very well contributing 76% towards new regular giving and cash donors

2Online Search for ‘NSPCC’ and website visitors is driving the offline response channels. Forms and Inbound telemarketing benefit from the halo impact of online

3 TV is the biggest driver of the ecosystem

4The model shows that by realigning the media mix, NSPCC could increase new donations by 8 -10% with the same media expenditure.

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This type of work is accessible

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Boiling the oceancarve-up the work into a roadmap

No stakeholder buy-ininclude all major stakeholders in process

No clear goaltake more time for discovery

Things to look out for when entering….

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Application of the work

Ecosystem