Post on 05-Jan-2020
ISPC and CGIAR ForesightRachid Serraj & Prabhu Pingali
Foresight4Food Workshop - Montpellier 22-24 May 2018
Foresight:• ISPC provides strategic foresight to inform the CG System of trends
and emerging issues in agricultural science and in the wider development arena; help inform SC in the revision of Strategy and contribute to the relevance and prioritization of CGIAR research
The Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC):provides independent advice to the CGIAR System Council, tasked with strategy, mission, impact of the CGIAR System [achieving a world
free of poverty, hunger and environmental degradation].
ISPC launched a 2-year process consisting of studies, workshops, and consultations to support system-wide dialogue on foresight.
participants (mostly non-CGIAR strategic thinkers & discussants)
Summary of papers, discussion & key messages.Report in ISPC website
* Serraj & Pingali (2018) – Agri-food systems into 2050: A synthesis
• Rural Prosperity in the 21st Century
• Food Systems for Better Health
• Climate Resilient Food and Agriculture Systems
• Sustainable Intensification of Smallholder Systems
• Evolving Organization of the R&D System
Thematic agenda for the future
What differentiates this initiative from other exercises? A sharp focus on developing country agricultural systems and on the future R4D prospects for rural poor.
State of Foresight in the CGIAR University of Aberdeen, 9-10 May 2018
Participants: GFSF /Centers/CRPs; NRM, iCRPs & Platforms; ISPC IA; external discussants
CRP/entity Foresight as
FP/CoA
Use IMPACT Other models/tools Uses
Rice CoA 1.1 Yes + ORYZA; IGRM; AGRM MEL; Prioritization
Maize/wheat CoA 1.1 Yes ++ MEL; CC research, etc.
RTB CoA 5.1 Yes + ILCYM, MESH, Farm
Design
Prioritization; Ex ante IA
GLDC CoA 1.1. Yes + Prioritization; CC analysis
etc.
Livestock ? Yes ++ GLW, GLEAM, LSIPT etc. CC & GHGE, dynamics tools
Fish ? Yes + WorldFish fish sector
model
Prioritization;
Scenarios
CCAFS ? Yes ++ GLOBIOM; MAGNET
Scenarios
Scenarios; governance etc.
Nutrition and
Health
? no MAGNET
WLE ? FP5? ? Scenario development Water accounting; GW,
basin information, …
FTA no no GLOBIOM ; Scenario
analysis
Land use; Policy
assessment; Ex-ante IA
PIM FP1? Yes Quantitative analysis Baseline, broad altern. and
focal scenarios
Big Data - no big data analysis tools
Genebanks &
EIB
- no
•Progress of working across the system – cross CRPs
•Correlation with the 5 themes in ISPC IA exercise
•Models and tools – focus on quantitative tools and potential to use qualitative tools. How to build overall coherence? methodological framework to combine all approaches used.
• CoP and modularity of tools – (issue of buy-in)
• Importance of pathways of operation
• Risk and uncertainty – tools for analysis
Salient Points
Book to be published in 2018 : drivers and trends of AF Systems
• Synthesis
• Megatrends (Overview)
• Climate Change
• Demography &
Migration
• Global Trade
• Energy
• Environment & Nat.al
Resources
• SDGs
• Food Systems
• Breeding &
Biotechnology
• Precision Agriculture
• Bio-economy
• Investor perspective
• Disruptive innovation
• Urbanization & SH
Farming
• Food & Nutrition Policy
• Nutrition, Diets &
Health
• Ecological
Intensification
• Ag Transformation
Pathways
Way forward
Next steps: • Regional consultation - Science Forum-2018, Stellenbosch Oct. 2018
• Foresight & scenarios analysis- Pre SC-7, Seattle Nov. 2018
• Link with prioritization and horizon scanning.