ISPC and CGIAR ForesightRachid Serraj & Prabhu Pingali

Foresight4Food Workshop - Montpellier 22-24 May 2018

Foresight:• ISPC provides strategic foresight to inform the CG System of trends

and emerging issues in agricultural science and in the wider development arena; help inform SC in the revision of Strategy and contribute to the relevance and prioritization of CGIAR research

The Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC):provides independent advice to the CGIAR System Council, tasked with strategy, mission, impact of the CGIAR System [achieving a world

free of poverty, hunger and environmental degradation].

ISPC launched a 2-year process consisting of studies, workshops, and consultations to support system-wide dialogue on foresight.

participants (mostly non-CGIAR strategic thinkers & discussants)

Summary of papers, discussion & key messages.Report in ISPC website

* Serraj & Pingali (2018) – Agri-food systems into 2050: A synthesis

• Rural Prosperity in the 21st Century

• Food Systems for Better Health

• Climate Resilient Food and Agriculture Systems

• Sustainable Intensification of Smallholder Systems

• Evolving Organization of the R&D System

Thematic agenda for the future

What differentiates this initiative from other exercises? A sharp focus on developing country agricultural systems and on the future R4D prospects for rural poor.

State of Foresight in the CGIAR University of Aberdeen, 9-10 May 2018

Participants: GFSF /Centers/CRPs; NRM, iCRPs & Platforms; ISPC IA; external discussants

CRP/entity Foresight as

FP/CoA

Use IMPACT Other models/tools Uses

Rice CoA 1.1 Yes + ORYZA; IGRM; AGRM MEL; Prioritization

Maize/wheat CoA 1.1 Yes ++ MEL; CC research, etc.

RTB CoA 5.1 Yes + ILCYM, MESH, Farm

Design

Prioritization; Ex ante IA

GLDC CoA 1.1. Yes + Prioritization; CC analysis

etc.

Livestock ? Yes ++ GLW, GLEAM, LSIPT etc. CC & GHGE, dynamics tools

Fish ? Yes + WorldFish fish sector

model

Prioritization;

Scenarios

CCAFS ? Yes ++ GLOBIOM; MAGNET

Scenarios

Scenarios; governance etc.

Nutrition and

Health

? no MAGNET

WLE ? FP5? ? Scenario development Water accounting; GW,

basin information, …

FTA no no GLOBIOM ; Scenario

analysis

Land use; Policy

assessment; Ex-ante IA

PIM FP1? Yes Quantitative analysis Baseline, broad altern. and

focal scenarios

Big Data - no big data analysis tools

Genebanks &

EIB

- no

•Progress of working across the system – cross CRPs

•Correlation with the 5 themes in ISPC IA exercise

•Models and tools – focus on quantitative tools and potential to use qualitative tools. How to build overall coherence? methodological framework to combine all approaches used.

• CoP and modularity of tools – (issue of buy-in)

• Importance of pathways of operation

• Risk and uncertainty – tools for analysis

Salient Points

Book to be published in 2018 : drivers and trends of AF Systems

• Synthesis

• Megatrends (Overview)

• Climate Change

• Demography &

Migration

• Global Trade

• Energy

• Environment & Nat.al

Resources

• SDGs

• Food Systems

• Breeding &

Biotechnology

• Precision Agriculture

• Bio-economy

• Investor perspective

• Disruptive innovation

• Urbanization & SH

Farming

• Food & Nutrition Policy

• Nutrition, Diets &

Health

• Ecological

Intensification

• Ag Transformation

Pathways

Way forward

Next steps: • Regional consultation - Science Forum-2018, Stellenbosch Oct. 2018

• Foresight & scenarios analysis- Pre SC-7, Seattle Nov. 2018

• Link with prioritization and horizon scanning.