Post on 18-Jul-2020
Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBE
Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Chair, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Chair, Climate-KIC Governing Board (EIT)
Conference on Scientific Support for Transition to Low Carbon Economy, Copenhagen, 6 March 2012
Germany's Guinea-Pig Role in the Global Transition to Sustainability
“Die Energiewende”
The Plan The Challenge ?
Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010–2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.
Examples of Theoretical Emission Trajectories
(WBGU Special Report, 2009)
· Revitalising multilateral climate policy
· Strengthening Europe’s credibility through good practice
· Sub-global alliances of climate pioneers
Durban 2012: Redrawing the Political World Map
· Culture of Attentiveness
· Culture of Participation
· Culture of Obligation towards Future Generations
Adopted from Rousseau …
… a new Social Contract
… Creating CommonResponsibility
A Social Contract for Sustainability
(WBGU 2011)
Development of primary energy demand between 1970 and 2050
WBGU Vision of Global Energy Revolution Based on Renewables
(WBGU 2011)
simplified
view
of the
world
Status Quo
Neoclassical Economics Fantasy
estimating
the
costs
surveying
and locating
the
scene
Status Quo Status Quo CompleteDecarbonisation
State-of-the-Art Science
e.g., path‐dependencies,
fossil subsidies
e.g., barriers
to global cooperation,
massive remaining
coal
resourcese.g., renewable
subsidies,
price
on carbon
e.g., changing
values
towards
sustainability,
global knowledge
networks
Status Quo CompleteDecarbonisation
Tipping the Socioeconomic Scales
World Subsidies to Fossil-Fuel Consumption
(IEA 2011)
(SRREN 2011)
RE Costs Are Still Higher Than Existing Energy Prices, But in Various Settings RE Is Already Competitive.
Time is on Your Side: Learning Curves of Renewable Energies
(WBGU 2011)
Barroso’s EU 2020: Make EU a Smarter, Greener Social Market
• Make EU 2020 work:– underpinning by National objectives as well– Consultation underway deadline 15 January 2010
• Creating a competitive, connected and greener economy
Co-location centre
Regional implementation centre
ParisFondation Saclay: ParisTech, IPSL, CEA
BerlinPIK, TU Berlin, TU München, GFZ, FZ Jülich, KlimaCampus Hamburg
ZurichETH Zürich
LondonImperial College
West MidlandsLower Silesia (Wroclaw)
Hessen
Central Hungary
Emilia Romagna
Valencia
NetherlandsUtrecht University, Delft Technical University, Wageningen University
Climate-KIC’s European Network
(FAZ, 2011/06/30)
Renewables are expected to replace nuclear, later fossil energy
German „Energiewende“(Energy Systems Transition)
Projected Share of RE Without Imports Until 2050 (GW)
(FAZ, 2011/06/30)
Solar
Wind
Other
Nuclear
Fossil
RE Contribution
(FAZ 2012/07/02)
0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit
2000
0
4000
6000
8000MW
tatsächlich
geplant
Produktion je StundeSolar
1000
0
2000
3000MW
tatsächlich
geplant
0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit
Produktion je StundeWind
Solar
Wind60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
MWtatsächliche Produktion je Stunde in MWStrommix am 5. Februar 2012
0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit
konventionelle Energieträger1)
1) Kraftwerke mit mindestens 100 MW Leistung.
Net Electricity Exports
(Süddeutsche 2012/02/13)
1489 1479
1180
877
1090
454
588
935135
618
852
1146990
1964
470
1790
687
205225
1272
Frankreich
Schweiz
Italien
Belgien
Polen
Tschechien
Slowakei
Ungarn
Slowenien
Österreich
Dänemark
Deutschland
NiederlandeGroßbritannien
Nach: SZ-Graphik: Ilona Burgarth
zwischen 12 und 13 Uhram 10. Februar
und RichtungStrommenge in Megawatt
Import mehr als ExportExport mehr als Import
Stromfluss in Europa
Combustion
Atmospheric CO2
Geological Carbon Storage
Carbon from Fossils
+CCSElectricity from RE
Methanization
CarbonCarbon CaptureCapture and and UseUse (CCU)(CCU)
Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gt between 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 °C. (WBGU Special Report, 2009)
Global Emissions Peak: Time is of the Essence
Different Energy Transformation Scenarios
(WBGU 2011)
(SRREN 2011)
RE Costs Have Declined in the Past and Further Declines Can Be Expected in the Future
Seemingly safe and clean…
Fukushima, 10 March 2011
…evidently not!
Fukushima, 16 March 2011
Strained Situation, Germany, Early February 2012?
low temperatures
peak consumption
high demand
REN electricity generationnuclear phaseout
… and net electricity exports to France
Possible Linking of Energy Grids,Example Methane
(WBGU 2011)
Electricty from RE
Methanization
Atmospheric CO2
Combustion
Bio+CCS /Air Capture
Geological or biologicalCarbon storage
Possible Linking of Energy Grids,Example Methane
1. Integration of Renewable
Energy Sources
(“Supersmart Grids“)
Erdwärmenutzung
Heizkessel / KWK Anlagen
Lüftung / Kühlung
Sonnenschutz Verschattung
Speicherung
Bildquelle: REHAU AG + Co.
Solarthermie & Photovoltaik
2.
Plus-Energy
Houses
(„Power Houses“)
The
Seven
Cardinal Innovations
3. Modular E-Mobility
(„Beyond
Storage“)
Bordeaux-Tram
4.
Systems-optimized
Industrial Production
(„Cradle
to Cradle“)
The
Seven
Cardinal Innovations
Bsp. Kühlung durch Biokohle
6.
Sustainable
Biomass
Management („De-
& Anti-Carbonisation“)
7.
Regenerative Water Supply
(„Solar Desalination“)
5.
Holistic
Urban and Regional Planning
(„Reinvention
of Urbanity
& Rurality“)
The
Seven
Cardinal Innovations