Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBE

Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Chair, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

Chair, Climate-KIC Governing Board (EIT)

Conference on Scientific Support for Transition to Low Carbon Economy, Copenhagen, 6 March 2012

Germany's Guinea-Pig Role in the Global Transition to Sustainability

“Die Energiewende”

The Plan The Challenge ?

Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010–2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.

Examples of Theoretical Emission Trajectories

(WBGU Special Report, 2009)

· Revitalising multilateral climate policy

· Strengthening Europe’s credibility through good practice

· Sub-global alliances of climate pioneers

Durban 2012: Redrawing the Political World Map

· Culture of Attentiveness

· Culture of Participation

· Culture of Obligation towards Future Generations

Adopted from Rousseau …

… a new Social Contract

… Creating CommonResponsibility

A Social Contract for Sustainability

(WBGU 2011)

Development of primary energy demand between 1970 and 2050

WBGU Vision of Global Energy Revolution Based on Renewables

(WBGU 2011)

simplified

view

of the

world

Status Quo

Neoclassical Economics Fantasy

estimating

the

costs

surveying

and locating

the

scene

Status Quo Status Quo CompleteDecarbonisation

State-of-the-Art Science

e.g., path‐dependencies,

fossil subsidies

e.g., barriers

to global cooperation,

massive remaining

coal

resourcese.g., renewable

subsidies, 

price

on carbon

e.g., changing

values

towards

sustainability,

global knowledge

networks

Status Quo CompleteDecarbonisation

Tipping the Socioeconomic Scales

World Subsidies to Fossil-Fuel Consumption

(IEA 2011)

(SRREN 2011)

RE Costs Are Still Higher Than Existing Energy Prices, But in Various Settings RE Is Already Competitive.

Time is on Your Side: Learning Curves of Renewable Energies

(WBGU 2011)

Barroso’s EU 2020: Make EU a Smarter, Greener Social Market

• Make EU 2020 work:– underpinning by National objectives as well– Consultation underway deadline 15 January 2010

• Creating a competitive, connected and greener economy

Co-location centre

Regional implementation centre

ParisFondation Saclay: ParisTech, IPSL, CEA

BerlinPIK, TU Berlin, TU München, GFZ, FZ Jülich, KlimaCampus Hamburg

ZurichETH Zürich

LondonImperial College

West MidlandsLower Silesia (Wroclaw)

Hessen

Central Hungary

Emilia Romagna

Valencia

NetherlandsUtrecht University, Delft Technical University, Wageningen University

Climate-KIC’s European Network

(FAZ, 2011/06/30)

Renewables are expected to replace nuclear, later fossil energy

German „Energiewende“(Energy Systems Transition)

Projected Share of RE Without Imports Until 2050 (GW)

(FAZ, 2011/06/30)

Solar

Wind

Other

Nuclear

Fossil

RE Contribution

(FAZ 2012/07/02)

0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit

2000

0

4000

6000

8000MW

tatsächlich

geplant

Produktion je StundeSolar

1000

0

2000

3000MW

tatsächlich

geplant

0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit

Produktion je StundeWind

Solar

Wind60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

MWtatsächliche Produktion je Stunde in MWStrommix am 5. Februar 2012

0 4 8 12 16 20 23Uhr-zeit

konventionelle Energieträger1)

1) Kraftwerke mit mindestens 100 MW Leistung.

Net Electricity Exports

(Süddeutsche 2012/02/13)

1489 1479

1180

877

1090

454

588

935135

618

852

1146990

1964

470

1790

687

205225

1272

Frankreich

Schweiz

Italien

Belgien

Polen

Tschechien

Slowakei

Ungarn

Slowenien

Österreich

Dänemark

Deutschland

NiederlandeGroßbritannien

Nach: SZ-Graphik: Ilona Burgarth

zwischen 12 und 13 Uhram 10. Februar

und RichtungStrommenge in Megawatt

Import mehr als ExportExport mehr als Import

Stromfluss in Europa

Combustion

Atmospheric CO2

Geological Carbon Storage

Carbon from Fossils

+CCSElectricity from RE

Methanization

CarbonCarbon CaptureCapture and and UseUse (CCU)(CCU)

Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gt between 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 °C. (WBGU Special Report, 2009)

Global Emissions Peak: Time is of the Essence

Different Energy Transformation Scenarios

(WBGU 2011)

(SRREN 2011)

RE Costs Have Declined in the Past and Further Declines Can Be Expected in the Future

Seemingly safe and clean…

Fukushima, 10 March 2011

…evidently not!

Fukushima, 16 March 2011

Strained Situation, Germany, Early February 2012?

low temperatures

peak consumption

high demand

REN electricity generationnuclear phaseout

… and net electricity exports to France

Possible Linking of Energy Grids,Example Methane

(WBGU 2011)

Electricty from RE

Methanization

Atmospheric CO2

Combustion

Bio+CCS /Air Capture

Geological or biologicalCarbon storage

Possible Linking of Energy Grids,Example Methane

1. Integration of Renewable

Energy Sources

(“Supersmart Grids“)

Erdwärmenutzung

Heizkessel / KWK Anlagen

Lüftung / Kühlung

Sonnenschutz Verschattung

Speicherung

Bildquelle: REHAU AG + Co.

Solarthermie & Photovoltaik

2.

Plus-Energy

Houses

(„Power Houses“)

The

Seven

Cardinal Innovations

3. Modular E-Mobility

(„Beyond

Storage“)

Bordeaux-Tram

4.

Systems-optimized

Industrial Production

(„Cradle

to Cradle“)

The

Seven

Cardinal Innovations

Bsp. Kühlung durch Biokohle

6.

Sustainable

Biomass

Management („De-

& Anti-Carbonisation“)

7.

Regenerative Water Supply

(„Solar Desalination“)

5.

Holistic

Urban and Regional Planning

(„Reinvention

of Urbanity

& Rurality“)

The

Seven

Cardinal Innovations