Post on 12-Feb-2016
description
Forecasting process: Severe Weather
Early warning
Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information3. BELIEVES the information4. Personalizes the risk5. Make correct decisions6. Respond in a timely manner
Early warning
Effective early warning should be:• Short, concise, understandable and actionable
• What, where, when, why, how to respond
Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.
Process
Identifying Severe Weather
UKMO Model
5-7 Day Lead time
NOAA Model
5-7 Day Lead time
Unified Model24 Hour fine scale lead
time
Web-based sources: QuickScat
5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory
Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
>100mm in 24hour
24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather
Process: Current
Issuing and disseminating Warning
Desktop
Warning
Distribution list
Issuing of Warning
Posted on the Internet
Television
Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many
others
Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers
Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service
Telephone: Direct to Forecaster
Process: Current
Monitoring and Amending warnings
Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
Extra Tropical
Cyclone - Gamede
Old Tropical Cyclone -
Favio
Cold Front
Very Cold Air
Mass
Satellite images
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation Danger
Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation Danger
High Resolution
Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection
LightningDetection
strikes
Cape TownWeatherRADAR
De AarWeatherRADAR
Radar
Lightning detection
Severe Bottom storm
High likelihood of large hail
Analysis of Routine observations
Surface
Upper air
Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people
Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed
Other Tools
Webcams
Independent Weather stations
Process: Current
After Event
Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
Any follow-up weather
Rescue mission conditions
Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
Way Forward:1. Re-define warning
criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures.
2. Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness,
3. Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings
4. Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research
South African Flash Flood Guidance System
Delineation of River Basins
Will Be Discussed Next
Thank You For Your Time
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mountains_winter.jpg
www.capetown.dj/people/people.html
http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpg
http://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpg
http://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg
http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictures/thunderstorm.jpg
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578
http://www.iopara.ca/research.html