Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Peter ChenChief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division

Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department

THORPEX Africa Meeting Geneva

8 – 10 May 2012

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere

“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”

- Eugenia Kalnay (2003)

- From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

Severe Weather Forecasting

Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries (Cg-XV, 2007)

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

WMO Strategic ThrustsImproved Service Quality and Service Delivery

Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services

Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazardsStrengthening Capacity Building

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

SWFDP Main Goals Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil

protection authorities, various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.)

“SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform forpreparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings”

SWFDP Regional Subprojects

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria)South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington)Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; planned start-up 2011) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries)Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project

5

Global Centers Disaster Management

Centres

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

6

SWFDP – Southern Africa•16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, •Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF

Since 2006

SWFDP – Eastern Africa• 6 Countries

• RSMC Nairobi & Regional Forecast Support Centre Dar-es-Salaam (Lake Victoria region)

WMO

Hazards: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)

Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains:

5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)

Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres of: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia

Started Sept. 2011

SWFDP links and synergies

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e

Glo

bal

Cen

tres

RS

MC

s-T

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Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products

TC

GuidanceProducts

(risk/probability)

GDPFS

Nat

ion

al M

et C

entr

es(F

ore

ca

st

D /

D+

5;

Bu

lle

tin

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SMS; Weather RadioSystems; Public Web; etc.

PWS

Dis

ast

er

Man

ag

emen

t an

d C

ivil

P

rote

ctio

n

Specific Communication Systems

Med

ia

E-mail; etc. Radio; TV

Flash Flood Guidance

HWR

Dis

ast

er

Man

ag

emen

t an

d C

ivil

P

rote

ctio

n

Specific Communication Systems

Gen

eral

Pu

bli

c

WW

RP

Research Projects

Satellite Imagery and Tools

WM

O S

P

Gen

eral

Pu

bli

c an

d s

pec

. u

sers

(A

gri

cult

ure

, F

ish

erie

s,

Mar

ine

Saf

ety

, A

via

tio

n,

etc.

)

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized

Applications

AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Specific Comm. Systems

SWFDP – what have we learned?

• Factors for success / failures – Credible, reliable, useful warning services – Engagement of forecasters using new NWP/EPS tools – Feedback, reporting, case studies – Continuous cycle improvement, including R&D outputs

• Project management (accountability)– Steering by CBS – Accountability of participants (project management team)– Sustaining the « demonstration » of matured projects– Regional ownership (SADC/MASA, EAC), project leaders

• Service Delivery and Capacity Building (strategic thrusts) – Concrete results are hard to achieve, or measure – Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media

organizations– Visibility of NMHSs

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Establish a warnings programme at the NMHSs• Increase lead-time and confidence in warnings and alerts issued• Address high-impacts (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore

damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet) • Verification • Phase in other developments

• Forecasting gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

• Warning services gaps: – Relations disaster management, civil protection, media – Warning criteria, SoP, reach, cultural, quality assurance– Inadequate monitoring, verification – Overall managment of warnings programme

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time

SWFDP demonstrations …

SWFDP and WWRP

• Global Interactive Forecasting System (TIGGE) - Tropical Cyclone forecasting, heavy rain, week-2 predictability

• JWG on Forecast Verification Research

• WG Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h)

• SERA – Service Delivery

Tell us how to fish

Show us how to fish

Fish with us

“ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …

detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather;

…

“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble

forecasting;”

- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

SWFDP – paving the way for the future

Thank you!pchen@wmo.int