Post on 04-Sep-2020
Fisheries (and Aquaculture) in the face of Climate Change: to adapt or not to adapt
Manuel Barange Director Fisheries and Aquaculture Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Rome, Italy
Manuel.barange@fao.org @Manu_FAO
HungerPoverty
Sustainability
Oct 1945, Quebec- 40 nations formed FAO
1950 - The World Census of Agriculture 1951- Headquarters move to Rome
1965 – COFI established
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Population
Fish proteins by annual amount
Animal proteins by annual amount
%
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Undernourished people (Million)
2 billion experience moderate or severe
food insecurity
© FAO 2019
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t
Marine Capture
Inland Capture
Marine Aquaculture
Inland AquacultureFAO SOFIA 2018
• in 2017 = 153 million tonnes for direct human consumption
• 7-fold increase from 1950
t
2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals
2050
2050
Free et al. 2019. “maximum catch potential from 235 fish stocks worldwide from 1930 to 2010 decreased by 4.1%”
Bindoff et al. 2020. SROCC
Changes in Productivity
Affects caps
on future yields
Pinsky et al. 2018. Science 360
Changes in Range
Affects where
fish are caught
and who can
catch them
27% in profit
29% inbiomass
16% in harvest
Compared to TODAY, Full Adaptation could
lead to:
Gaines et al. 2018. Science Advances 4
Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine
fisheries
Impact on fisheries score is equivalent to the average estimate for % change in catch potential under the projection scenarios outlined in Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture (FAO 2018)
Country climate change indicatorsApproach
Nutritional dependence on fish
Economic dependence on fisheries
Development score
- Fish in diet- Food insecurity
- Fish in GDP- Fish in Trade- Fish in employment
- Social and economic- Governance indicator
Results – DBEM 2050 2.6
Overall Climate Change Risk (on Fisheries)
• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu
Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation
Countries with inland catch >30,000 t /yr (94% of total production)
Future Stress > Current Stress Bold – High to Very High Future stress
146 countries and 6 river basins assessed.Of the top producing countries:
Pakistan, Morocco, Turkey – Stressors will move from High to Very High in future
Turkmenistan, China, Mexico, Malawi, Iran, Kazakhstan – Stressors will move from Medium to High
Myanmar, Cambodia, Kenya, Chad, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Congo, South Sudan under low stress and projected to remain low in the future Barange et al. 2018. FAO TP. 627
Vulnerability of Freshwater farming systems
Unfavorable impacts predominate in developing countries, but adaptation measures are available. Vulnerability reduction depends on broader adaptation measures beyond the aquaculture sector. Higher risk countries:
Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, China (Freshwater); Viet Nam, Ecuador, Egypt, Thailand (Brackish); Norway, Chile (Marine)
Barange et al. 2018. FAO TP. 627
• Adaptation is placed and context based
• On-going and iterative
• Adapt to the possible rather than the probable
• Adaptation is not a zero-sum game: it can have very positive results
• Coordinated adaptation essential
• Political commitment + Societal support + Industry leadership
Institutional Adaptation
Livelihoods Adaptation
Risk Reduction and
Resilience
FAO Adaptation Toolbox
Eastern Caribbean
BenguelaCurrent
Chile
Myanmar
Malawi
GEF-funded Adaptation
FAO and partners Adaptation
St Lucia
S. Africa
Philippines
Bangladesh
NAP support
Kenya
Thailand
Uganda
Uruguay
Viet Nam
Zambia
EAF Nansen Programme
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture – Climate Change Adaptation Portfolio
1. Transformative adaptation
2. Focus on attain robustness to variability rather than stability
3. Develop spatial management mechanisms able to adapt to the fast pace of climate change
4. Negotiate trade-offs and build on climate justice and equity considerations
5. Promote value-adding to compensate for decreasing productivity
6. Account for gender differences in terms of vulnerability
7. Invest in innovation
Session 6 – Fisheries Management in the face of a changing climate - MESSAGES
RISK vs REWARD
Thank you