Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries A UW-JISAO/Alaska Fisheries Science Center Collaboration Jeffrey...
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Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries
A UW-JISAO/Alaska Fisheries Science Center Collaboration
Jeffrey M. Napp
Alaska Fisheries Science CenterNOAA Fisheries
FAQS
• Collaborations address NOAA Strategic Goals 1 & 2.
• Two administrative mechanisms: straight JISAO and JISAO/School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science.
• Involves two of the three Divisions at the Seattle campus of the AFSC.
• Presently about 8-10 JISAO projects at the AFSC. • Funding from a variety of sources including
SSLRP, NPCREP, FATE, NPRB
Ecosystem-Based Scientific Advice
Ecosystem-Based Scientific Advice
State-of-the-Art Population Assessments including uncertainty
State-of-the-Art Population Assessments including uncertainty
Research on Effects of Fishing on HabitatResearch on Effects of Fishing on Habitat
Improve understanding of Climate effects on Ecosystem Production
Improve understanding of Climate effects on Ecosystem Production
Development and Improvement of Predictive
Models Development and Improvement of Predictive
Models
Research on Ecosystem Effects of FishingResearch on Ecosystem Effects of Fishing
P. L
ivin
gsto
n
Cold
-175 -170 -165 -160
54
56
58
60
0 2 4 6 8
50
50
100
Warm
-175 -170 -165 -160
54
56
58
60
0 2 4 6 8
50
50
100
Mean Species Distributions
Mean bottom temperatures in warm/cold years
In cold years, cod areblocked offshore from thecapelin by coldwater mass.No species interaction.
In warm years, thermalgateways open, allowing cod to enter the nearshorecapelin habitat and feed, opening new speciesinteractions. K
. Bai
ley
Changing Climate & Populations
Thermal Experience
Temporal Diet Composition
Prey Energy Density
Consumer Size &
Growth
Predator Energy Density
Bioenergetics Model
Consumption Estimate
ConsumerSize Structure& Abundance
PopulationConsumption
Mazur & Wilson
S. Hinckley
An Ecosystem Approach to Management
Physical Forcing
BiologicalInteractions
Management
Status of Stocks and Ecosystem
Catch LevelClosed AreasDiscardsGearEffort
+
+
Modified from P. Livingston
IndicesModels
Observing Systems
Predict
Understand
Development and Improvement of Predictive Models
Development and Improvement of Predictive Models
100% from pelagic
100% from benthic
Energy Source
(A) EBS
(B) WBS
P. Livingston
Individual based model for walleye pollock in Gulf of Alaska to study recruitment
variability
0
5
10
15
20
25
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Julian days
mm
olN
m-3
N03 data
N03 model
0
4
8
12
16
20
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Julian days
mg c
hla
m-3
chla data
chla model
0
200
400
600
800
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Julian days
num
m-3
Neocalanus dataNeocalanus model
Food model NPZ for pollock
Coupling models
SPEM
Juvenile Index
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year class
Modele
d J
uvenile I
ndex w
eig
thed
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Age-2
assesm
ent
billions
Modeled juvenile index weigthed Age-2 assesment
IBM
Larval Index
0
30000
60000
90000
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year class
Larv
al I
ndex
wei
gthe
d
00.511.522.533.54
Rec
ruitm
ent
( A
ge-2
fro
m
mod
el a
sses
men
t)
larval index weigthed Model assesment Age-2
NPZ
The correlation between larval index and Age-2 stock assessment during late 70’s to late 80’s was 0.79
R2=0.79
Poor correlation between juvenile index and Age-2 stock assessment after late 80’s.
Need to include food (Euphausiids) and predation and account for more juvenile behavior
Shifting control recruitment
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Julian days
num
m-3
Pseudocalanus dataPseudoocalanus model
Hydrodynamic model output:
Salinity, temperature, velocity fields
Wildebuer et al., (2002)
Ecosystem Effects of Fishing: Ecosystem Indicators
Ecosystem Effects of Fishing: Ecosystem Indicators
Eastern Bering Sea
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Tota
l cat
ch (t
)
1
2
3
4
Trop
hic
leve
l (ca
tch)
Total catch
Trophic level ofcatch
Fish community size spectrum
3.16
3.65
3.98
4.23
4.42
1982 19
85 1988 19
91 1994 19
97 20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
ln (N +1)
ln (length midpoint +1)
Year
Size frequency distribution all fish
11.000-12.000
10.000-11.000
9.000-10.000
8.000-9.000
7.000-8.000
6.000-7.000
5.000-6.000
4.000-5.000
3.000-4.000
Total catch and trophic level of catch
Understanding and forecasting ecosystem response to changing climate of the North Pacific
North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem ProductivityNorth Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity
Fisheries Acoustics Research Laboratory
• To understand and apply acoustic technologies to fisheries management and aquatic ecology.
• To quantify and understand spatiotemporal distributions, dynamics, and interactions of aquatic organisms.
Walleye Pollock predicted backscatter at 70 kHz
(J. Horne, unpublished)