Post on 23-Aug-2014
description
Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquacultureAsia Conference on Oceans, Food Security and Blue Growth (ACOFB 2013). 18-21 June 2013, Bali, Indonesia
Michael Phillips and Malcolm Beveridge
Outline
• Fish and food security• “Blue growth” in aquaculture• Future actions
Wealth and population growth are major drivers for animal source food consumption, including fish
Fish demand is growing.. along with other animal sources foods
source: Hall et al. (2011)
Year
Pro
duct
ion
(milli
on
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
Pig
Chicken
Fish
Production targets (national data)
Production forecast (this study)
Year
Pro
duct
ion
(milli
on
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)
IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)
Fish
•Baseline scenario
•Technological advances in aquaculture
•Ecological collapse of fisheries
• Global consumption remains at1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)
• Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Stagnant fisheries
Year
Pro
duct
ion
(milli
on
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)
IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)
Fish
•Baseline scenario
•Technological advances in aquaculture
•Ecological collapse of fisheries
• Global consumption remains at1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)
• Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Stagnant fisheries
Aquaculture is growing to meet demand
Future fish demand (2007-2015)
source: FAO - Cai (2011)
Future need
Small-scale, wild, fisheries will remain important for the poor, food and nutrition
Blue growth of aquaculture
The world according to aquaculture…
source: Hall et al. (2011)
Aquaculture – major species groups, 2008
other aquatic animals
freshwater fishes
aquatic plants
clams, mussels, oysters
prawns, shrimps, etc.
salmon, trout, etc.
marine fishes
5 10 15 20 25
28.8
15.8
13.1
0
5.0
3.3
source: http://www.fao.org/sof/sofia/index_en.htm
1.8
0.6
million tonnes
Aquaculture growth impacts ecosystems
Major impact categoriesEutrophication
Freshwater use
Land use
Ecotoxicity
Biodiversity
Climate change
Energy use
Biotic depletion
Life cycle analysis approach
Environmental impacts - a summary
source: Hall et al. 2011
Farmed fish compares well with other animal source foods
But, business as usual doubles impacts of aquaculture by 2030
source: Rockström et al, 2009
Aquaculture impact categories
Eutrophication
Freshwater use
Land use
Ecotoxicity
Biodiversity
Climate change
Energy use
Biotic depletionsource: Rockstrom et al. 2009
Our planetary boundaries
Putting blue growth of aquaculture into practice
“Blue Frontiers” interventions• Innovation• Regulations and policy• Technologies and management• Monitoring and compliance• Supply, demand and markets
source: Hall et al. 2011
(1) Innovations
• Feeds• Genetics• Systems• Extension• Markets• Mobile tech
(2) Regulations and policy
• International standards• New regulations and policy• Implementation
(3) Lower impact technology
Significant scope for improvement in environmental performance
.. within species groups
… and between species groups
(4) Monitoring and compliance
source: Cai (2011)
(5) Better understand supply and demand scenarios
(6) “Blue” Investments• US$50-70 billion in infrastructure• Clear need for private partnerships
Messages
• Future food and nutrition security requires both aquaculture and fisheries
• Aquaculture can be an efficient animal source food producer
• Lower impact aquaculture pathways necessary
• Change is possible but the challenge is scale
• Inclusive partnerships
Thankyou – Terima Kasih
M.Phillips@cgiar.orgWorldFish and CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS)Acknowledgements – Resource Legacy Fund, GIZ and FAO/Allfish