ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20031

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20032

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20033

contingency table

• FAR=FA/(FA+CR) false alarm rate

• HR=H/(H+M) hit rate

CorrectRejection

MissEvent is not

forecast

False AlarmHitEvent is

forecast

Event is not

observed

Event is

observed

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20034

example: climate of model rain=f(range)

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20035

model temperature climate

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20036

model wind climate

model wind errors

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20037

forecast scores = f(range) models vs radiosondes

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20038

forecast scores, evolution

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 20039

monitoring using an observable (GPS)

basic obs/model case study(ECMWF wind, aicraft, profilers)

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 200310

flooding case study: 2 models, radar, raingauges

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 200311

assimilation monitoring with multiple obs systems

ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy

18th – 29th August 200312