Post on 19-Jul-2016
description
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com1
October 2010May 2010
Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey
~ Fall 2014 ~
Full Service Market Research and Public Opinion Polling
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor � Portland, Maine 04101
www.criticalinsights.com
Residents’ Views on Politics, the Economy, & Issues Facing the State of Maine
October 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com2
October 2010May 2010
Introduction
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com3
Background & Methodology• Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey, a
comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and the general public.
• Critical Insights on MaineTM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine’s residents for over 18 years, making it the longest running, consistently administered Tracking Survey in the Northeast.– In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a public service) the survey
also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors.
• For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 606 telephone interviews (including cell phones) with randomly selected likely voters across the state between September 24th
and September 30th, 2014.– With a sample of 606 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage
points at the 95% confidence level.– All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered and likely voters; final data were statistically
weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.– The reported sample size on some items may be less than 606 due to respondent refusal on selected items.– On average, the entire survey instrument – including both general interest items and all proprietary subscriber
items – was 20 minutes in administrative length.
• This document presents findings from general interest items included in the current round of measurement, with comparisons made – as appropriate – to results from past iterations of the Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey.
October 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com4
October 2010May 2010
Research Highlights
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com5
October 2010May 2010
The Economy
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com6
Economic concerns persist as the most pressing issues among Mainers, with the economy in general and unemployment worries, respectively, topping the list of perceived issues facing Maine.
Consistent with findings over the last year, roughly half of Maine voters are concerned with one of these economic-focused issues.
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Spr'12
Fall'12
Spr'13
Fall'13
Spr'14
Fall'14
Economy 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35 36 44 26 30 22 31Unemployment 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44 27 20 24 18 23 20Education 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4 3 4 8 5 5 7Taxes 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4 4 3 7 5 7 4Welfare programs 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 8 4Health care 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3 7 4 5 14 6 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? *
* Top trended responses shown.
October 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com7
Job loss has nearly doubled since last Spring to emerge as the leading near-term financial concern for Mainers, the highest it has been since the Fall 2011 measurement. Remaining responses are highly fragmented, suggesting that a fairly diverse set of financial worries are also weighing on the minds of Mainers.
Fall '10 Spr '11 Fall '11 Spr '12 Fall '12 Spr '13 Fall '13 Spr '14 Fall '14Job loss 32 17 25 20 18 16 16 14 27Economy 12 7 13 9 10 7 8 9 10Taxes 15 4 5 6 7 12 7 9 8Cost of living 20 19 18 21 19 16 15 12 6Health care 11 10 9 11 15 15 25 11 6Gov't spending/Debt 5 5 8 6 7 9 6 8 6Price of gas/utilities 12 32 16 21 22 11 9 8 4Education 7 5 6 7 5 11 6 5 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Perc
ent
As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? *
* Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
October 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com8
In a significant uptick from Spring 2014, one-third of Maine voters now feel the economy will improve over the coming year.
In results nearly identical to six months ago, fully half of voters believe things will remain roughly the same into 2015; given the number of residents currently citing economic concerns, the notion of steadiness in the state of the economy is a troubling finding.
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Spr'12
Fall'12
Spr'13
Fall'13
Spr'14
Fall'14
Better 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30 41 41 34 30 25 33About the same 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41 37 27 40 45 51 50Worse 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25 17 10 22 22 21 14
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be . . .
October 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com9
October 2010May 2010
National Politics
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com10
With figures that have continued to trend a bit below national averages, President Obama has remained below majority favorability among Maine voters over the last three iterations of Critical Insights on MaineTM.
Perspectives on the President continue to be sharply divided along party lines.
66 61 56 56 5547 53 52 54
4356
4755 51 53
46 5245 48 44
2925 37
2941
3942
3344
45
4041
4339
4344
46
4249
46
514
715
412
515
211
511
29
4 102
133
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/refused
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama?
**** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 18-21, 2009
*** Source: Daily Kos poll, Oct. 19-22, 2009
** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 3-6, 2010
*Source: Daily Kos poll, April 28-May 1, 2011
Support for the President continues to be strongest
among residents of Southern Maine (50%) and the 1st District
(49%), more well-educated Mainers (59%), and self-
reported Democrats (74%).
Disapproval tends to be highest among men (52%), residents of Northern Maine (55%), those in the 2nd District (52%), and self-
reported Republicans (81%).
^ Source: ABC-GfK poll, Oct. 13-17, 2011
^^ Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 11-15, 2012
^^^ Source: Gallup Poll, April 11-14, 2013
^^^^ Source: Gallup Poll, Sept. 15-16, 2013
October 2014
# Source: Gallup Poll, Feb. 6-9, 2014## Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll. Sept. 24-29, 2014.
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com11
Unlike last Spring when a large bloc of respondents expressed mixed views about the direction of the nation, Mainers are currently more certain about their opinions. In results consistent with Fall 2013, only one-quarter of Mainers claim to have a positive sense of where the country is headed, while a majority see things headed in the wrong direction.
33 37 32 25
4530
17 1933 30
41 38 34 28 30 26 2818
29 26
59 47 5960
52
45 74 66
5955
50 53 5954
62 6469
42
6559
816 9 15
3
259 15 8
14 9 9 719
8 10 3
40
615
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011^^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, April 13-17, 2012^^^ Source: AP-GfK poll, Oct. 19-23, 2012
***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 2010**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Oct. 14-18, 2010*Source: AP-GfK poll. May 5-9, 2011
October 2014
Optimism about the country’s direction is most acute among more highly-educated (31%)
and wealthier (38%) Mainers, as well as self-reported
Democrats (45%).
Among the 6-in-10 Mainers who are bullish on the
country’s direction, feelings about heading in the wrong
direction are strongest among less highly-educated (70%)
Mainers and Republican voters (83%).
# Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 24-28, 2013## Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 5-8, 2013### Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 24-27, 2014
~ Source: CBS News Poll. Oct. 3-6, 2014
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com12
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
October 2014
Wrong Track (n=360)
Dysfunction in Congress/Leadership/Government
18%
Bad economy/No jobs 15%
Obama’s leadership/ideas are the problem 14%
Overall/In general things are going downhill 13%
Foreign policy/We help other countries, not our own
12%
Right direction26%
Wrong track59%
Mixed/Don't know15%
Among the majority who feel the country is on the wrong track, results are fragmented. Reasons cited focus on what is seen as government dysfunction, a poor economy, and opposition to the President’s policies, including foreign policy. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com13
Among the 26% of Maine voters who feel the country is headed in the right direction, reasons cited are centered on a belief that the economy is improving and that the President is providing good leadership.
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
October 2014
Right Direction (n=160)
Economy improving/Unemployment down 29%
Overall/In general things are improving 21%
President Obama making good decisions/providing good leadership
20%
Believe in our country/Democracy/Optimism 5%
Right direction26%
Wrong track59%
Mixed/Don't know15%
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com14
October 2010May 2010
Maine Politics
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com15
Doubling from six months ago to results consistent with the Fall 2013 iteration of Critical Insights on MaineTM, more than one-third of Mainers currently have a positive sense of where Maine is headed, but 42% do not (+8 percentage points since Spring 2014).All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
34 30 3023 23
40 37 4230 35
18
37
59
52 49 62
45
40 4240
4447
34
42
717 21
15
3119 21 18
2616
48
21
0
20
40
60
80
100
Spring'09
Fall '09 Spring'10
Fall '10 Spring'11
Fall '11 Spring'12
Fall '12 Spring'13
Fall '13 Spring'14
Fall '14
Perc
ent
Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know
October 2014
Views on the direction Maine is headed tend to split according to
party lines, with 56% of Democrats claiming the state is off on the
wrong track (vs. just 25% of Republicans who feel similarly) and
57% of Republicans believing Maine is headed in the right
direction (vs. only 23% of Democrats).
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com16
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
October 2014
Wrong Track (n=255)
Bad Governor/Disapprove of Governor 40%
No jobs/Job outlook bleak 13%
Bad economy 8%
Partisan politics/Little cooperation 5%
Maine not business friendly 5%
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Right direction37%
Wrong track42%
Mixed/Don't know48%
However, among the 42% of voters who feel Maine is off on the wrong track, Gov. LePage and his policies play a contrasting role, with 4-in-10 blaming the governor for this sense that Maine is on a downward trajectory as a state.
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com17
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
October 2014
Right Direction (n=223)
Good Governor/Governor doing good job 34%
General optimism 16%
Gradual improvement in economy 15%
Welfare reform 10%
Right direction37%
Wrong track42%
Mixed/Don't know48%
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
For the 37% of Maine voters who feel the state is headed in the right direction, one-third attribute this belief to Gov. LePage and his policies.
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com18
Governor LePage’s job performance is currently at a 45% approval rating (+6 percentage points since Spring 2014), the highest it has been over the past two years.Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is handling his job as governor of Maine?
31
47
43
42
37
39
39
45
54
40
48
47
53
53
49
49
15
12
9
12
10
8
12
6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Spr '11
Fall '11
Spring '12
Fall '12
Spring '13
Fall '13
Spring '14
Fall '14
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
October 2014
Support for Gov. LePage continues to be strongest among men (52%),
residents of Northern Maine (56%), those in the 2nd District (51%), and
Republican voters (82%).
Disapproval tends to be most acute among Southern Mainers (57%), the 1st District (55%), and self-reported
Democrats (76%).
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com19October 2014
Support for Senator King is strongest among those in the 45-
64 age band (64%), the most highly educated (65%) and wealthiest (67%) Mainers,
residents of Southern Maine (62%), those in the 1st District
(62%), and self-reported Democrats (76%).
49
63
58
15
17
22
36
20
20
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Spring '13
Fall '13
Fall '14
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
In a slight change since one year ago, 58% of Mainers polled approve of the job Angus King is doing as U.S. Senator (-5 percentage points). One-fifth are still unsure.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Angus King is handling his job as US Senator?
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com20October 2014
Support for Senator Collins is highest among those in the 45-64 age band (69%),
the wealthiest (69%) Mainers, residents of
Northern Maine (74%), and Republican voters (75%).
Approval for the way Susan Collins is handling her job as U.S. Senator is currently at 64% (-5 percentage points since Fall 2013), while 27% disapprove of her performance.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Susan Collins is handling her job as US Senator?
68
69
64
21
20
27
11
11
9
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Spring '13
Fall '13
Fall '14
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com21
The gubernatorial race has U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud polling in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Paul LePage, with each garnering close to 40% of the projected vote.
If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…
Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…
Which candidate are you leaning toward?
October 2014
12
25
31
7
9
6
2
2
2
21
36
39
0 20 40 60 80 100
Independent, Eliot Cutler
Democrat, MichaelMichaud
Republican, Paul LePage
Percent
Definitely Probably Leaning
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com22
Demographically, LePage has an advantage over Michaud among men and the 18 to 64 age range; meanwhile, Michaud’s definite support is stronger among women and with the oldest (65+) portion of the electorate.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…
October 2014
3730
4436
2936
5145
50
40
5349
4436
18 2016
11
22 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Definitely Michaud Definitely LePage Definitely Cutler
ACCORDING TO CORE DEMOGRAPHICS: Definites (n=417)
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com23
Among voters who have definitely decided on their preferred gubernatorial choice, Michaud and LePage are virtually tied in the 1st
Congressional District, while LePage holds a dramatic 16 percentage point advantage over Michaud in the 2nd CD.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…
October 2014
3741
33
4541
49
18 18 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Definitely Michaud Definitely LePage Definitely Cutler
ACCORDING TO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Definites (n=417)
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com24
Among Mainers who definitely know which candidate they will vote for, those who are more pessimistic about the broader economy have a much greater tendency to support LePage, who leads both Michaud and Cutler by a wide margin.If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were held tomorrow, would you vote for…
October 2014
3745
36
23
4541 42
60
1814
2217
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Definitely Michaud Definitely LePage Definitely Cutler
ACCORDING TO PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE: Definites (n=417)
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com25
Democrat Chellie Pingree garners just over half of the projected vote to lead the 1st Congressional District race, followed by Republican Isaac Misiuk with 19% and Independent Richard Murphy with 10%.
In the 2nd District, Republican Bruce Poliquin has a slight advantage over Democrat Emily Cain (41% vs. 36%, respectively), while Independent Blaine Richardson trails with 6% of the projected vote.
Now turning to the Congressional Races, if the election were held tomorrow, would you vote for…
October 2014
17
10
19
53
0 20 40 60 80 100
Don't know
Independent, RichardMurphy
Republican, IsaacMisiuk
Democrat, ChelliePingree
Percent
16
6
36
41
0 20 40 60 80 100
Don't know
Independent, Blaine Richardson
Democrat, Emily Cain
Republican, Bruce Poliquin
Percent
CD1 (n=311) CD2 (n=295)
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com26
October 2010May 2010
Voter Preferences
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com27
Stated Voter Political Affiliation
October 2014
Democrat36%
Republican30%
Unenrolled/Other27%
DK/Ref.7%
In what political party are you registered to vote?
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com28
Stated Voter Plans for November 4th
October 2014
Do you think you’ll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in/absentee ballot?
Vote in person82%
Early voting/absentee
15%
Don't know/Refused
3%
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com29
October 2010May 2010
Other Issues
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com30
More than 6-in-10 Mainers claim to be at least somewhat satisfied with the quality of education K-12 students are receiving today in Maine, while about one-third are dissatisfied.
October 2014
Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of education students receive in kindergarten through grade 12 in Maine today? Would you say…
10
53
23
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
Completelysatisfied
Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Completelydissatisfied
Don’t know
Perc
ent
NET DISSATISFIED32%
NET SATISFIED63%
Overall satisfaction tends to be greatest in Southern
Maine (69%) and among the wealthiest Mainers (70%).
Dissatisfaction is most prevalent among women
(36%), lower-income Mainers (41%), and
Coastal/Downeast Maine residents (39%).
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com31October 2014
Agree20% Disagree
71%
Don't know9%
Even respondents more likely to agree to the fee –those in the 45 to 64 age band and higher-income
households – still overwhelming oppose the
fee by more than a 2:1 margin.
Fully 7-in-10 residents disagree with the idea that all of Maine’s telephone users should pay a fee to subsidize local telephone companies.
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement:
All of Maine’s telephone users – including those who only use a cell phone – should pay a fee on their monthly phone bill to subsidize local telephone companies that provide affordable, basic landline service to residents of Maine.
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com32
October 2010
32
May 2010
Sample Profile
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com33
Socio-Demographic Profile
October 2014
4753
14
28
1724
17 18 20
36
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent
Gender Age
Education
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland • Maine
www.criticalinsights.com34
Residential Profile
October 2014
61
15 16
6
1811
21
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
None One Two Three ormore
< $35K $35K to <$50K
$50K to <$75K
$75K+
Perc
ent
Children in household Household income