Abacus Poll

8/12/2019 Abacus Poll

1/34

Liberals lead Tories by 7.Race closer among those most likely to vote (Liberal 37% vs. PC 35%)

Battleground Ontario 2014

Methodology: Online, n=1,000 eligible Ontario voters, May 28 to 31, 2014

Comparable margin of error: +/-3.1%

1


2/34

Key Findings and Analysis

Key Findings

The Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the

PCs with 37% for the OLP, 30% for the PCs and 24% for

the NDP.

Among likely voters, Liberals lead by 2 over Tories (OLP

37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%).

Liberals continue to lead among key swing groups -

including those who would consider voting Liberal or

NDP and those who would consider voting PC or

Liberal.

32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while

22% think the PCs will win. Four in ten (39%) are

unsure who will win the provincial election.

We also asked respondents to tell us how they would

feel if each of the main parties formed a government.

Eligible voters were more likely to be dismayed if Mr.

Hudak and the PCs formed a government (44%) while

36% would be dismayed if the Ontario Liberals formeda government. Respondents were less likely to be

dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by

Ms. Horwath (31%) and were more likely to say they

wouldnt mind an NDP government.

Interest in the campaign has not changed since the

previous week of polling.

Analysis

With just under two weeks to go in the campaign, the Liberals continue to

maintain a small advantage over the PCs. Among eligible voters, the Liberals have

opened up a seven-point lead, but among those most likely to vote, the Liberals and

Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals at 37% and the Tories at 35%. The NDP

has failed to gain any momentum, despite Andrea Horwathsmore aggressive

strategy last week.

While the debate could shake up the race, deeper analysis of the poll results

suggests that the Tories have little room to grow beyond its current support and

there is little enthusiasm for the NDP among the key swing groups that would

consider voting NDP.

Consider these findings: among those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP

but not PC, the Liberals lead the NDP by 20-points. More importantly, when asked

how they would react to a Liberal, PC, and NDP government, these voters were more

likely to be delighted with a Liberal win, few were delighted if the NDP won, and

almost all would be dismayed if Tim Hudak was able to form a PC government. The

state of mind among these voters bodes well for the Liberals as they seek to squeeze

the NDP by raising fears about a Hudak government.

The upside for the Tories is that their supporters appear to be more motivated

and more likely to vote, hence the small gap between them and the Liberals among

likely voters. However, it is clear that the first three weeks of the campaign have

been won by the government, not the challenging parties. The PC campaign needs toreverse this direction in order to win - the debate carries extraordinary stakes for Mr.

Hudak now.

Interest in the campaign remains remarkably low at this stage, with only 22% of

eligible voters saying they are following the campaign closely and only 36% saying

they have given quite a bit of thought to the campaign.

The leaders debate could increase interest but all signs at this stage point to

another low turnout election in Ontario and a legislature that looks very similar to

one at dissolution.

2
http://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feistyhttp://www.torontosun.com/2014/05/29/andrea-horwarth-gets-tough-and-feisty


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and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

For more information, visit our website at

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3

SUN MEANS POLITICS

Keep up with all the news from the Ontario election

campaign including new polls and analysis by watching The

Battleground with David Akin each evening at 5pm ET /

10pm MT.

And dont forget to bookmark www.OntarioPolls.cafor all

the reports and analysis from all polls conducted by Abacus

Data and Sun News during the Ontario election.
http://www.ontariopolls.ca/http://www.abacusdata.ca/http://www.ontariopolls.ca/http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/http://www.ontariopolls.ca/http://www.abacusdata.ca/http://www.ontariopolls.ca/


4/34

4

4

Vote Intentions


5/34

Liberals ahead by 7 Among Committed Eligible Voters

5

33%34%

37%

33%

32%

30%

26%

25%

24%

6% 6%7%

2% 2% 2%

May 16 May 24 May 31

OLP PC NDP Green Other

Q: If the ONTARIO election was today, which party would you vote for in your local constituency?

There has been some change in the voting intentions of

eligible voters since our previous wave of research. The

Liberals have opened up a seven-point lead over the PCs. The

Liberals are at 37% among committed voters, up three points

over last week. The Tories are down slightly to 30% while the

NDP are down by one point to 24%. The Green Party of

Ontario has the support of seven percent of committed

eligible voters

Regionally, the Liberals have a big lead in Metro Toronto (OLP

49%, PC 25%, NDP 17%) while there are close races in the

GTA, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. In the

North, the NDP has a large lead although the sample size in

that region is small.

The Liberals also lead among voters living in urban and

suburban communities while the Tories are ahead of the NDP

among those living in rural communities.

Demographically, the Liberals lead among voters aged 18 to

44, while the Tories are ahead among those aged 60 and over.

Among men, the Tories have a marginal lead over the Liberalswhile among women, the Liberals have a 10-point lead over

the NDP. The Tories only have the support of 23% of

committed female voters, down from 30% in our first poll.

Among those employed full-time in the private sector, the

Liberals and Tories are tied, while the Liberals have opened up

a sizeable lead over the NDP and especially the Tories among

those employed in the public sector.


6/34

Committed Voters

6

37%

49%

35%38%

29%

19%

30%

25%

33%38%

31%

17%

24%

17%

24%

16%

29%

47%

7% 6% 5% 6%9%

14%

Ontario Postal Code M (Toronto) Postal Code L(GTA/Ham/Niagara)

Postal Code K (East) Postal Code N (SW) Postal Code P (North)

OLP PC NDP Green

37%

41%39%

32%

36% 35%39%

30%

20%25%

31%

44%

38%

23%24%

29%26%

25%

17%19%

29%

7% 8% 7%9%

3%6%

8%

Ontario 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60+ Men Women

OLP PC NDP Green


7/34

Committed Voters

7

37%

75%

11%15%

20%

7%

39%

30%

10%

80%

8%5%

31%

18%24%

11%6%

74%

16%

0%

25%

7%3% 2% 3%

60%

8%13%

Ontario OLP 2011 PC 2011 NDP 2011 Green 2011 Other 2011 DNV 2011

OLP PC NDP Green

37%38%

40%

23%

35%

39% 39%

30%

26%

33%

38%35%

17%21%

24%25%

20%

30%

19%

32% 33%

7% 8% 6% 6%8% 7%

3%

Ontario Urban Suburban Rural Private sector Public sector Non-profit

OLP PC NDP Green

Vote Intention by Sector

Current Vote Intention by Vote in 2011 Ontario Election


8/34

Committed Voters

8

37%

51%

29%

15%

37%

30%

26%

49%

20%24%24%

16% 16%

55%

22%

7%6% 5%

9% 10%

Ontario OLP Held PC Held NDP Held Not sure

OLP PC NDP Green

Vote Intention by Party Holding Constituency

Incumbent MPPs continue to be in a strong position. Among eligible voters living in ridings held by the OLP, the Liberals now hold a25-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters, up from a 12-point advantage last week. In PC held ridings, the Tories

have a commanding lead with 49% of respondents saying they would vote PC followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 16%.

While in NDP held ridings, the NDP has 55% of committed eligible voter support, followed by the PCs at 20% and the Liberals at

15%.

Since last week, incumbent MPPs and candidates running for parties who previously held their electoral districts are in a better

position. All signs point to a legislature that looks very similar to the one at dissolution.


9/34

Vote Intention by Voter Group

9

In our analysis of the election, we also introduced seven voter groups based on respondents openness to vote for one of the three main political

parties.

Not surprising, each party gets almost 100% of the vote among its core voters. However, among the swing groups, the Liberals have

opened up a lead among those who would consider voting OLP and PC, but not NDP. Among the large OLP/NDP swing group, theLiberals continue to lead by a wide-margin (OLP 57%, NDP 34%) while the PCs have a commanding lead among those voters who

would consider voting PC or NDP but not Liberal (PC 62%, NDP 35%). The only noticeable movement since last week has been among

those who would consider voting OLP and PC: The Liberals have gained among those group.

Among fully flexible swing voters (those who would consider voting for all three parties), the Liberals continue to have a large lead.

Almost half of these committed swing voters (45%) would vote Liberal, followed by the PCs at 20% and the NDP at 18%. The Green

Party also does best among these voters with 14% support.

45%

99%

0% 3%

52%57%

1%

20%

1%

95%

1%

40%

1%

62%

18%

0% 1%

89%

2%

34% 35%

14%

1% 0%6% 4% 7% 1%

Swing OLP core PC core NDP core OLP/PC swing OLP/NDP swing PC/NDP swing

OLP PC NDP Green


10/3410

10

Likely Voters


11/34

Liberals lead Tories by 2 Among Likely Voters

11


While the Liberals have opened up a seven-point

lead among eligible voters, the race is much

closer among those most likely to vote.

Among committed likely voters, the Liberals

have 37% support followed by the PCs at 35%

and the NDP at 22%. The Greens have 5%support.

The closer race among likely voters indicates

that Tory and Liberal supporters are more likely

to vote than those of other parties, with Tory

supporters being significantly more motivated

than the supporters of other parties.

We profile our sample of likely voters on the

next page. As a reminder, we identify likelyvoters using a scale comprised of six questions

asked at the beginning of the survey.

33%

36%37%

36%

33%35%

25%24%

22%

5%6%

5%

1%2% 2%


OLP PC NDP Green Other


12/34

Who are the Likely Voters?

12

The tables on this page compare the sample of likely and unlikely

voters. As expected, likely voters are significantly older, moreeducated, and have higher incomes than unlikely voters. They are also

more likely to be men.

Looking at how the two groups voted in 2011, only six percent of likely

voters said they did not vote in 2011 compared with almost half of

unlikely voters. In 2011, 35% of our likely voters cast a ballot for the

Liberals followed by 32% for the PCs and 19% for the NDP. These

results are similar to results in 2011.

Note, we do not statistically weight our samples by previous vote.

Likely Voter Unlikely Voter

Male 54% 43%

Female 46% 57%

18 to 29 years old 13% 31%

30 to 44 years old 24% 30%

45 to 59 years old 36% 29%

60 and over 26% 10%

HS or less 27% 45%

College 36% 32%

University 37% 23%

Less than $50K 26% 37%

$50K to $100K 39% 34%

Over $100K 20% 14%

Rather not say 15% 15%

Likely Voter Unlikely Voter

2011 Vote

Liberal 35% 18%

PC 32% 12%

NDP 19% 17%

Green 5% 6%

Other 2% 1%

Did not vote 6% 46%


13/34

All eligible voters: 13% are undecided, down 2.

13

28%

29%

32%

29%

27%

27%

22%

22%

21%

5%6% 6%

1%2% 2%

14%

15%

13%


OLP PC NDP Green Other Undecided



14/34

Provincial Vote IntentionAll Eligible Voters

14

32%

43%

32% 32%

24%

17%

27%

22%

30%32%

26%

15%

21%

15%

21%

14%

24%

42%

6% 5% 4% 5%8%

12%13% 12%10%

15%17%

11%

Ontario Postal Code M (Toronto) Postal Code L(GTA/Ham/Niagara)

Postal Code K (East) Postal Code N (SW) Postal Code P (North)

OLP PC NDP Green Undecided

32%35%

33%

28%

34%31% 32%

27%

18%21%

27%

41%

34%

19%21%

24%

21% 21%

16% 17%

25%

6% 7% 6%8%

3%5% 7%

13%14%

17%

13%

6%10%

16%

Ontario 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60+ Men Women



15/34

Provincial Vote IntentionAll Eligible Voters

15

32%

71%

10%14%

17%

4%

24%27%

10%

76%

7%4%

20%

11%

21%

10%5%

68%

14%

0%

16%

6%3% 1% 3%

52%

5%8%

13%

5% 6% 7%13%

37% 38%

Ontario OLP 2011 PC 2011 NDP 2011 Green 2011 Other 2011 DNV 2011


32%33%

35%

20%

31%32%

35%

27%

23%

29%32% 31%

14%

19%

21%22%

17%

25%

17%

27%30%

6% 7% 5% 5%7% 6%

2%

13% 13%11%

16%

12%

17%

9%

Ontario Urban Suburban Rural Private sector Public sector Non-profit


Current Vote Intention by Vote in 2011 Ontario Election

Vote Intention by Sector


16/3416

16

Change vs. Re-election


17/34

Time for a Change?

Overall, there has been little change in perceptions about

whether the Ontario Liberals deserve to be re-elected or

whether it is time for a change. The percentage of those thinking

the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up three since last week

while the percent wanting change is down three. One in four

eligible voters remain unsure about whether it is time for change

or whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

Among those not sure about change, the Liberals lead with 29%

support followed by 22% who said they would vote NDP. The

Tories are well back at 7%.

This demonstrates the challenge for the Tories in growingsupport beyond its current level of support. In order for the

Tories to grow it has to either convince more voters it is time for

a change and they are an acceptable alternative or it has to

convince more of those who believe it is time for a change to

support it. Either way, it seems the Tories are close to hitting its

ceiling of support.

17

24%27%

51%48%

25% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May 24 May 31

Liberals deserve to be re-elected

Time for a change

Unsure

Generally speaking, do you think Kathleen Wynne and the LiberalParty deserves to be re-elected or do you think it is time for

another party to take over?

4%

85%

29%

49%

4%

7%

29%

6%

22%

8%

3%

5%

8%

2%

34%

Time for a change

Deserves to be re-elected

Not sure

Undecided Green NDP PC OLP


18/34

18

18

Expected Election Outcome


19/34

Plurality believe Liberals headed for the win

19

32%

26%

22%24%

7%

15%

1%

39%

24%

8%

Based on what you have seen and

heard about the election, which party

do you think is going to win the

ONTARIO ELECTION?

And which party do you think is going

to win YOUR electoral district?

OLP PC NDP Green Other Unsure Too close to call

We asked respondents to predict the likely outcome of

the election. Overall a third of eligible voters believe

the Liberals will win compared with 22% who selected

the Tories. Thirty-nine percent of eligible voters were

unsure about who would win.

When asked about the race in their own electoral

district, 26% believed the Liberal candidate would win in

their district compared with 24% for the Tories and 15%

for the NDP. One in four eligible voters were unsureabout who would win in their district while 8% said it

was too close to call.

When we compare expected election outcomes and

vote intention, we find that Liberal supporters generally

think the Liberals will win while Tories generally think

the Tories will win. Among NDP supporters, 27% think

the OLP will win , 26% think the NDP will win, while 10%

think the PCs will win. 38% are unsurethe highest

undecided number among the supporters of the three

parties.


20/34

Reaction to Possible Election Outcomes

We also asked respondents to tell us how they would feel if each of the

main parties formed a government.

Eligible voters were more likely to be dismayed if Mr. Hudak and the

PCs formed a government (44%) while 36% would be dismayed if the

Ontario Liberals formed a government. Respondents were less likely to

be dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by Ms. Horwath

(31%) and were more likely to say they wouldnt mind an NDP

government.

There are some interesting findings when we look at how the different

voter groups react. When it comes to a Liberal government, 55% of the

OLP core voters said they would be del ighted while 90% of PC core

voters said they would be dismayed. Among the NDP core, voters wereless likely to be dismayed than PC core voters (56%) while 20% said they

wouldn't mind it if the Liberals won. Opinion was varied among the

swing groups. Among fully flexible voters, 18% said they would be

delighted if the Liberals won while 19% said they would be dismayed.

Another 29% said they wouldn't mind it. Among OLP/NDP swing voters,

29% would be delighted with a Liberal win while 57% wouldn't mind.

Among OLP/PC swing voters, delight was more muted (17%) with

almost half saying they wouldn't mind a Liberal government (48%).

When it comes to a PC government, opinions were more intense. 70%

of the PC core group would be delighted with a PC win while the samepercentage of Liberal and NDP core voters (70%) would be dismayed.

The results among OLP/NDP swing voters demonstrate the challenge

the NDP faces with the prospect of strategic voting. Among this group

(the largest in the electorate), 82% said they would be dismayed with a

PC government, highest among any voter group. If these voters feel

that the Tories are heading to a close finish, many could flock to the

Liberals. In fact, as we reported earlier, the Liberals currently lead

among this group (OLP 57% vs. NDP 37%).

20

17% 17%14%

36%

44%

31%29%

20%

33%

18%20%

22%

A Liberal Government

was formed under Ms.

Wynne as Premier

A PC Government was

formed under Mr. Hudak

as Premier

An NDP Government was

formed under Ms.

Horwath as Premier

I would be delighted I would be dismayed

I wouldn't mind Don't know

Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a

government after the election. Which of these statements comes

closest to your own view on each?


21/34

Reaction to Election of Parties by Voter Group

21

18%

55%

1% 3%17%

29%

1%

19%

1%

90%

56%

14%3%

80%

29% 33%

6%20%

48%57%

6%

34%

11%4%

21% 21%11% 13%


Delighted Dismayed Wouldn't mind Unsure

11%2%

70%

0% 4% 1%

32%28%

70%

3%

70%

21%

82%

8%24%

10%24%

10%

49%

5%

43%37%

18%3%

20% 26%13% 16%



14%

0% 1%

57%

1%

20% 16%22%

50%

65%

3%

55%

4%10%

29% 28%20%

29%

16%

60% 57%

36%

22%13% 11%

28%

15% 17%



A Liberal

Government

A PC

Government

An NDP

Government


22/34

22

22

Campaign Dynamics


23/34

Campaign Contact with Voters

As part of our election tracking, we will also track the

level of engagement between the political parties and

voters.

In the current wave of research, when asked which

political parties had contact them since the provincial

election started, 54% of all respondents said that no

candidate or party had contacted them. This is down

6-points since the previous week.

Twenty-seven percent of eligible voters reported

being contacted by the Liberals, while 24% reported

being contacted by the PC campaign or candidates.

Respondents were less likely to say they have been

contacted by the NDP (17%) or the Green Party (3%).

These results indicate that the Liberal and PC

campaigns are running at about the same intensity

but that the NDP campaign continues to lag. This may

be indicative of a more targeted NDP campaign

focused on the fewer constituencies it can win.

23

Please indicate all the political parties that have contacted you since the election started.

2%

10%

15%

15%

71%

4%

14%

22%

24%

60%

3%

17%

24%

27%

54%

Green

NDP

PC

Liberal

No candidate/party contacted



24/34

Contact by Party Holding Constituency

24

27%

41%

23% 24%

10%

24%

28%33%

24%

8%

17% 18%

11%

43%

6%3% 5% 2%

5%

54%

43%

52%

39%

83%

Ontario OLP Held PC Held NDP Held Not sure

OLP PC NDP Green None

Campaign Contact by Party Holding Constituency

When we compare campaign contact across the different party held ridings, the survey finds that each party is making more contactin ridings it holds. Among respondents living in OLP held ridings, 41% have been contacted by the Liberal Party followed by the PCs

(28%) and NDP (18%). In PC held ridings, there seems to be less activity with 52% of respondents saying they have not been

contacted by any party at all. In NDP held ridings, respondents were more likely to report being contacted by the NDP (43%)

followed by the PCs (41%) and the Liberals (24%).


25/34

25

25

Voter Attention to the Election


26/34

Interest in the Election

26

32% 33%36%

45% 44%44%

17% 15%14%

7% 8% 6%


Quite a lot Some

Little Not at all

How much thought have

you given to the provincialelection in ONTARIO? Overall, interest in the campaign has not changed

much since our first poll in mid-May.

When asked how much thought they had given to the

provincial election, 36% of respondents said they had

given quite a lot of thought (up 3) compared with 44%

who said they had given some thought. 20% of

eligible voters said they had given little or no thoughtto the campaign so far.

Level of interest in the campaign has not changed at

all. 22% of eligible voters said they have been

following the campaign closely while 49% said they

have been following the campaign somewhat closely.

Among those who have given quite a lot of thought tothe election, 40% said they would vote PC, followed

by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 18% and Greens at

6%. Seven percent of those who have given a lot of

thought to the election said they were undecided.

22% 21% 22%

48% 48% 49%

24% 24% 21%

7% 7% 8%

May 16 May 24 May 31Very closely

Somewhat closely

Not that closely

Not at all

How close have you been

following news about theONTARIO election?


27/34

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in

Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians,

recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the worlds leading provider of online research samples. The survey was

conducted from May 28 to 31, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online

surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19

times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their

intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario's population according to age,

gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact

David Coletto, CEO at [email protected] or at 613-232-2806.

27


28/34

Committed voters

28

Row % Ontario

Liberal

Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario Green Another Party Raw Weighted

Region All 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874Toronto (postal code starts with M) 49% 25% 17% 6% 2% 186 203

GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code

starts with L)

35% 33% 24% 5% 3% 324 334

Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 38% 38% 16% 6% 2% 139 109

Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 29% 31% 29% 9% 1% 168 168

Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 19% 17% 47% 14% 4% 58 58

Age Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874

18 - 29 41% 20% 29% 8% 2% 122 162

30 - 44 39% 25% 26% 7% 3% 225 218

45 - 59 32% 31% 25% 9% 4% 284 29660 and over 36% 44% 17% 3% 0% 244 197

Gender Male 35% 38% 19% 6% 3% 448 455

Female 39% 23% 29% 8% 1% 427 419

NET 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874

Past Vote Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874

Ontario Liberal 75% 10% 11% 3% 1% 282 282

Ontario PC 11% 80% 6% 2% 2% 255 244

Ontario NDP 15% 8% 74% 3% 1% 174 172

Ontario Green 20% 5% 16% 60% 0% 46 44

Another party 7% 31% 0% 8% 55% 10 11

Did not vote 39% 18% 25% 13% 5% 108 120

Community Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874

Urban 38% 26% 25% 8% 2% 379 402

Suburban 40% 33% 20% 6% 2% 343 340

Rural 23% 38% 30% 6% 3% 153 132

Org Type Private sector 35% 35% 19% 8% 3% 225 292

Public sector 39% 17% 32% 7% 4% 179 137

Non-profit sector 39% 21% 33% 3% 4% 35 34

likelyvoter Likely voter 37% 35% 22% 5% 2% 658 638

NET 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874


29/34

Eligible Voters

29

Row % Ontario Liberal Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario Green Another Party Undecided Raw Weighted

Region All 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

Toronto (postal code starts with M) 43% 22% 15% 5% 2% 12% 212 232

GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal

code starts with L)

32% 30% 21% 4% 2% 10% 362 372

Eastern Ontario (posta l code starts with K) 32% 32% 14% 5% 2% 15% 163 128

Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 24% 26% 24% 8% 1% 17% 198 204

Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 17% 15% 42% 12% 3% 11% 65 65

Age Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 35% 18% 24% 7% 2% 14% 142 190

30 - 44 33% 21% 21% 6% 3% 17% 270 262

45 - 59 28% 27% 21% 8% 3% 13% 329 340

60 and over 34% 41% 16% 3% 0% 6% 259 210

Gender Male 31% 34% 17% 5% 3% 10% 489 504

Female 32% 19% 25% 7% 1% 16% 511 497

NET 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

Past Vote Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

Ontario Liberal 71% 10% 10% 3% 1% 5% 300 297

Ontario PC 10% 76% 5% 1% 2% 6% 271 258

Ontario NDP 14% 7% 68% 3% 1% 7% 187 186

Ontario Green 17% 4% 14% 52% 0% 13% 53 50

Another party 4% 20% 0% 5% 35% 37% 17 18

Did not vote 24% 11% 16% 8% 3% 38% 172 193

Community Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

Urban 33% 23% 22% 7% 2% 13% 434 462

Suburban 35% 29% 17% 5% 2% 11% 386 382

Rural 20% 32% 25% 5% 3% 16% 180 157

Org Type Private sector 31% 31% 17% 7% 3% 12% 255 331

Public sector 32% 14% 27% 6% 3% 17% 214 165

Non-profi t sector 35% 19% 30% 2% 4% 9% 39 38

likelyvoter Likely voter 35% 33% 21% 5% 2% 5% 699 675

NET 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002

S h f h f ll i i d l d f f h l i Whi h f h


30/34

Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a government after the election. Which of these statements

comes closest to your own view on each? | A Liberal Government was formed under Ms. Wynne as Premier

30

Total sample; Weight: WEIGHT; base n = from 508 to 1000; total n = 1000; 492 missing; effective sample size = 843 (84%)

Multiple comparison correction: False Discovery Rate (FDR) (p = 0.05)

Row % I would bedelighted

I would bedismayed

I wouldn't mind Don't know Raw Weighted

Region All 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

Toronto (postal code starts with M) 24% 26% 34% 16% 212 232

GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts with

L)

18% 40% 25% 16% 362 372

Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 16% 36% 30% 19% 163 128

Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 10% 40% 28% 23% 198 204

Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 14% 41% 28% 17% 65 65

Age Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 16% 24% 33% 27% 142 190

30 - 44 15% 32% 34% 19% 270 262

45 - 59 17% 40% 29% 15% 329 340

60 and over 23% 46% 18% 13% 259 210

Gender Male 16% 44% 27% 12% 489 504

Female 19% 28% 30% 23% 511 497

NET 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

Past Vote Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

Ontario Liberal 40% 14% 38% 8% 300 297

Ontario PC 6% 67% 16% 11% 271 258

Ontario NDP 11% 39% 36% 14% 187 186

Ontario Green 15% 39% 34% 12% 53 50

Another party 0% 59% 18% 23% 17 18

Did not vote 6% 24% 23% 46% 172 193

Community Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

Urban 20% 32% 31% 18% 434 462

Suburban 17% 38% 29% 16% 386 382

Rural 10% 47% 21% 22% 180 157

Org Type Private sector 13% 41% 33% 13% 255 331

Public sector 15% 28% 33% 24% 214 165

Non-prof it sector 24% 26% 33% 17% 39 38

likelyvoter Likely voter 22% 40% 28% 10% 699 675

NET 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002

S h f th f ll i ti d l d t f t ft th l ti Whi h f th t t t


31/34


comes closest to your own view on each? | A PC Government was formed under Mr. Hudak as Premier

31




I would bedismayed


Region All 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002



L)

20% 43% 20% 17% 362 372




Age Ontario 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 12% 41% 18% 30% 142 190

30 - 44 13% 42% 22% 24% 270 262

45 - 59 16% 49% 20% 16% 329 340

60 and over 28% 42% 18% 12% 259 210

Gender Male 22% 42% 23% 13% 489 504

Female 12% 46% 17% 26% 511 497

NET 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002


Ontario Liberal 5% 65% 17% 13% 300 297

Ontario PC 51% 14% 26% 10% 271 258

Ontario NDP 5% 69% 14% 13% 187 186

Ontario Green 8% 69% 12% 12% 53 50

Another party 16% 26% 42% 16% 17 18

Did not vote 4% 24% 21% 51% 172 193


Urban 15% 45% 19% 21% 434 462

Suburban 18% 44% 19% 19% 386 382

Rural 20% 41% 22% 17% 180 157


Public sector 7% 54% 16% 23% 214 165



NET 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002

S h f th f ll i ti d l d t f t ft th l ti Whi h f th t t t


32/34


comes closest to your own view on each? | An NDP Government was formed under Ms. Horwath as Premier

32




I would bedismayed


Region All 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002

Toronto (posta l code starts with M) 9% 34% 34% 23% 212 232


L)

14% 32% 35% 19% 362 372




Age Ontario 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 20% 15% 34% 32% 142 190

30 - 44 16% 25% 37% 22% 270 26245 - 59 13% 33% 32% 21% 329 340

60 and over 7% 47% 29% 16% 259 210

Gender Male 12% 34% 38% 17% 489 504

Female 16% 27% 28% 28% 511 497

NET 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002


Ontario Liberal 11% 37% 36% 16% 300 297

Ontario PC 4% 52% 27% 17% 271 258

Ontario NDP 43% 8% 42% 8% 187 186

Ontario Green 10% 27% 48% 15% 53 50

Another party 12% 18% 48% 22% 17 18

Did not vote 6% 16% 23% 55% 172 193


Urban 17% 30% 33% 21% 434 462

Suburban 9% 31% 36% 23% 386 382

Rural 17% 31% 27% 25% 180 157


Public sector 18% 20% 37% 25% 214 165



NET 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002

Based on what you have seen and heard about the election which party do


33/34

Based on what you have seen and heard about the election, which party do

you think is going to win the ONTARIO ELECTION?

33



Row % Ontario Liberal Ontario PC Ontario NDP Not sure Raw Weighted

Region All 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002


GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts

with L)

29% 25% 8% 38% 362 372




Age Ontario 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 37% 19% 13% 31% 142 190

30 - 44 30% 20% 11% 39% 270 262

45 - 59 31% 23% 4% 41% 329 340

60 and over 30% 25% 3% 42% 259 210

Gender Male 32% 28% 7% 33% 489 504

Female 31% 16% 8% 45% 511 497

NET 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002


Ontario Liberal 51% 15% 6% 28% 300 297

Ontario PC 14% 48% 2% 36% 271 258

Ontario NDP 33% 13% 19% 35% 187 186

Ontario Green 39% 13% 9% 39% 53 50

Another party 9% 20% 0% 72% 17 18Did not vote 26% 9% 5% 60% 172 193


Urban 33% 17% 11% 39% 434 462

Suburban 33% 27% 4% 36% 386 382

Rural 25% 26% 6% 43% 180 157


Public sector 32% 16% 12% 39% 214 165

Non-profit sector 41% 22% 5% 31% 39 38


NET 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002

And which party do you think is going to win YOUR electoral


34/34

And which party do you think is going to win YOUR electoral

district?

34

Row % Ontario

Liberal

Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario

Green

Another

party

It's too close

to call

Not sure Raw Weighted

Region All 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

Toronto (postal code starts with M) 43% 13% 12% 1% 2% 7% 23% 212 232

GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario

(postal code starts with L)

24% 31% 13% 1% 0% 8% 23% 362 372

Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 29% 31% 4% 1% 0% 8% 26% 163 128

Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts

with N)

15% 26% 17% 2% 0% 11% 29% 198 204

Northern Ontario (postal code starts with

P)

10% 14% 54% 2% 0% 1% 18% 65 65

Age Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

18 - 29 28% 16% 18% 4% 1% 4% 28% 142 190

30 - 44 24% 22% 15% 2% 0% 9% 26% 270 26245 - 59 26% 25% 15% 0% 0% 8% 26% 329 340

60 and over 28% 35% 13% 0% 0% 8% 16% 259 210

Gender Male 28% 30% 13% 1% 0% 9% 18% 489 504

Female 25% 19% 17% 1% 1% 7% 30% 511 497

NET 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

Past Vote Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

Ontario Liberal 46% 18% 11% 1% 0% 9% 14% 300 297

Ontario PC 13% 56% 6% 0% 0% 9% 16% 271 258

Ontario NDP 17% 14% 40% 1% 1% 8% 19% 187 186

Ontario Green 31% 12% 9% 10% 2% 12% 25% 53 50

Another party 29% 0% 14% 12% 0% 0% 46% 17 18Did not vote 22% 8% 12% 0% 0% 5% 54% 172 193

Community Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

Urban 31% 17% 19% 1% 1% 8% 23% 434 462

Suburban 28% 27% 11% 1% 0% 9% 24% 386 382

Rural 8% 40% 16% 1% 0% 5% 31% 180 157

Org Type Private sector 25% 26% 12% 3% 1% 10% 24% 255 331

Public sector 25% 22% 14% 2% 0% 6% 31% 214 165

Non-profit sector 35% 19% 21% 0% 0% 8% 17% 39 38

likelyvoter Likely voter 30% 29% 16% 2% 1% 9% 13% 699 675

NET 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002

Abacus Poll

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