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8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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Foreign Policyat BROOKINGS
Carlos Pereira
Joo Augusto de Castro Neves
Bz n Chn:Sh-Sh Pnhp
Nh-Sh Cmpn?
POLICY PAPER
Number 26, March 2011
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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POLICY PAPER
Number 26, March 2011
Bz n Chn:Sh-Sh Pnhp
Nh-Sh Cmpn?
Foreign Policyat BROOKINGS
Carlos Pereira
Joo Augusto de Castro Neves
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
3/24
F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
i i
ackn o w ledg em en ts
T pp w ny cmmn by CAF. W y
Pccn, Mc Cn, Chn L, n Oc Amm N h
cmmn n b n n p n h pp.
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
i i i
aB s t r a c t
T h m h n h pb n m-
mnn cn mn mn
cn, h pp c n Bz-Chn
n. T mn pc pn pzz:
n, h pc-c m, n n -
c nmn. T pp p cmp
mn bwn h w cn n h ,n n h xn whch h w m-
n pw h b n pn n/
cmp. D w cc, n ny n h
h pc, b n h nnc c
n nn n pc n bh Chn
n Bz. T ny h, n wh -
n n, h pn w-
n mbnc n ymm n w h
m b Chn hn Bz. T,
Bz n Chn bn b cmp, b n c hw b mbnc my c m-
cpn bwn h w cn.
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
1
in t r o d u c t i o n
Th n why mn pw
y pc b mch m hn p-
pn c n h nnn n. F,
hy x n ncn nnc n b cnm-
c , ch n nmn. Iny -
n cnym ynmc mk,1
h BRIC (Bz, R, In n Chn) hbcm n py n h pc cnmc
cy h b nnc c n 2008 n
2009. Wh 40 pcn h w ppn n
ny 25 pcn b GDP, h cn n
ny p m n h c, b
h b cnmc cy whn cm-
p h p cnm.2 M, h
p 20 cmpn n h 2010 Fb Gb 2,000
, m h BRIC (3 Chn, 1 Rn,
n 1 Bzn).
Scn, cn mpn n cnmpy n-
nn n h mn
pw w m. A h pw n-
n h , h mn cn cn
chn h xn b n, m p-
ccy, h w n ppw, h Un
S. A , Bz, R, In, n Chn h
n b. Ty m h h p-
c, cnmc, n my mn nnc
h nnn hh h wn n
n by. An hy h my n
b h hy h py m pmnn
n b . T, h cn ,
h nn h h nn h cm n n
h pc hbn nw w y
b n.3
b whh mn pw p k
pn n n h nnn ,
n n m wy m ppc cn
n h Un S n k cy n
mn h cn. I pb n m h
ncn mn mn pw h h cn-
pn n n h U.S.- ? I
h ch hn cn-hmnc cn?
An, y, hw n n chn h cn?
Snc h nn h n mn pw-
n Bzn n pcy ncnc, h nn qn h n b .
O, h mn nnn n hc
ppch n cz mn pw h
cnc-pn, pw b,4 pw
mbc h nm Wn- b
.5 A cn Bzn n pcy ch-
hp, h mn pw cn
mny hh h n Sh-Sh cpn,
zzy cncp ch nmy hh -
cn pn.6
1 Wn, Dmnc n Rp Phhmn, Dmn wh BRIC: T Ph 2050, Goldman Sachs Financial Workbench, Gb EcnmcPpN. 99, 2003.
2 BRIC Mnhy Rp, Gmn Sch, My 2009.3 A. H, Hmny, Lbm n Gb O: Wh Spc W-B G Pw? International Afairs, 82 (1), 2006, pp. 1-19.4 K. Wz, Teory o International Politics, McGw-H, 1979.5 J. G. Iknby, Ater Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding o Order ater Major Wars, Pncn Uny P, 2001.6 . Vn n G. Cpn, A Pc Exn L S: A E Anm p Dc, Contexto Internacional, 29 (2),
2007, pp. 273-335.
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
2
Fm h pp ppc, h h m-
wh n h m h w ymc h-
c ppch. On n hn, fm h m-
n pw chn U.S. hmny n h m
yn h h cn h cmmn w
n wh m pn j b
h k k.7 On h h hn, hh h
cn h m m mn pw- n pmnny b nnn ,
m n hn n h cpn h b-
nm hpy. A k cn Bz-
Chn n my h m h n h .8
Nwhnn h mn pw b, whn
cm h n h mc nn,
h cn bcm q c. Wh Bz
mcc mk cnmy, Chn pm-
nny pnn cnmy by n h-
n m. Hw h nc my py
n h nnn n w b h n c
h pp, whch w h mn pch pn pzz ny n nmn
fc k: n, h pc-c
m, n n c nmn.
7 An, Ch n M. A. V, T Nw Dpmcy h Sh: Sh Ac, Bz, In, n m, Tird World Quarterly, 26(7),2005, pp. 1077-1095.
8 B. Bzn, Te United States and the Great Powers: World Politics in the wenty-First Century, Cmb Uny P, 2004.
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
3
trade relations : Partn ers a n d
co m P e t i t o r s
Whn cnn chn h nn-
n y, Bz n Chn n
w pn. M ny n pcy-
mk h w n mn pw
h ncny cnn h m n h
nnn n, n ch h BRIC, h
G20 (p pn nn h WO DhRn), n h BASIC (Bz, Sh Ac, In,
n Chn pn n cm chn nn).
In 2004, n xchn bwn Bz-
n Pn L S n Chn Pn H
Jn nn h wn mpnc h
nhp. An mn w n bh
b mchnm hh- c
b, n, n b cn-
cnj h cn c bh
by Chn wh nh pn cny (h h
bn wh In). A h Bzn Fn Mn- h m, W kn b -
nhp bwn h pn cny n
h Wn hmph n h pn
cny n h En hmph.9
B, n h xchn h b n
h nhn n h p c. F by h
mp cnmc wh, Chn mn
n c ph h pc cmm
c-hh , pc h y bn
Bz cnmy. Bzn xp Chn wn
m $1.1 bn n 2000, $21 bn n 2009.
O h, ppxmy 78 pcn ccn bc
(y, n , n ). Imp m Chn
wn p, m $1.2 bn n 2000, $15.9 b-
n n 2009. In h w q 2010, Chn
bcm h nmb n by Bzn xp,h h Un S, n nmb w c
Bzn mp, bhn h Un S. O-
, n m w, Chn Bz
mn n pn.10
T wnn h pnhp y pn
n Bz . Abn (y n h cp)
xpnc b n pcy n c-
xp. Vale bcm, n h p c, n
h mnn cmpn n h w. Petrobras
bn, n ny m Chn mn , b m mch-n Chn nmn n h
cmpny m pn xp p-
h c Bz.11Embraerpn -
pn cy n Chn n h cny b-
cm h cmpny cn cnm, bhn
h Un S. Fhm, Bz nc-
bn m Chn nmn n h
c (Companhia Siderurgica do Atlantico), mj
ppn (Gasoduto Gasene), n hmcc
pw pn (Candiota).
9 Pc cm chn n m E Un, m Amm (Pnhp wh Chn N T h Un S, SyAmm), Folha de Sao Paulo, 24 My, 2004.
10 Mn Dnmn, In Cmc Ex B (MDIC), .11 Snpc, Chn -wn cmpny, n $10 bn Petrobrasn 2009. T ncn, n ny h Bz y cn n
h w m cc xpn n, b h Chn hny n h h pn bcm b c FDI.Hw, Php Yn h n p h pn ynmc ncn bwn Chn n Ln Amc n h ny, Chnpnc n Ln Amc, pcy n Bz, q m. S C. Ann n J. Dw, Chn, Ln Amc, n h Un S: TNw n, Latin American Program, Ww Wn Innn Cn Sch, 2011.
http://www.desenvolvimento.gov.br/http://www.desenvolvimento.gov.br/8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
4
Hw, n h p w y, h b -
nhp h p chnn, pcy B-
z. Ahh Chn bcm Bz mn npn, Bz n mn Chn p
n n pn. M, n bwn
h w cn ncn Sh-Sh
xchn ( bnc xchn bwn pn
cn), fc Bzn hc my ,
b n ncny Nh-Sh nhpwh
Bz n xp cmm n n mp
mnc m Chn. Appxmy
79 pcn Bzn xp Chn n h
q 2010 w bc (y, n , n
). An Bz mp m Chn w mycnc n cp . In 2000, 49 pcn
Bzn xp Chn w bc ( -
1 n 2).
Fhm, cn y by h Bzn Nn
Dpmn Bnk (BNDES) hw ncn n-
c n mp m Chn. T ny
w nb n Bz. F, cnm
h chnn n h b xchn
h m b-nn mp knw- n
chny-nn mp m Chn. Scn,
h y pn h cn bwn h m-
p cfcn m Chn n h cmpn
Bzn pc b. T Bzn c
(knw- n chny-nn) h hhwn ncn nc n Chn mp h
Figure 1 evolutionoF Brazilian exPortsto china (%)
Figure 2 evolutionoF Brazilian exPortsFrom china (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2009 2010 (1st qtr.)
Basic Goods Semi-manufactured Manufactured
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2009 2010 (1st qtr.)
Basic Goods Semi-manufactured Manufactured
Sc: Bzn Mny Dpmn, Iny, n (MDIC).
Sc: Bzn Mny Dpmn, Iny, n (MDIC).
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
5
hwn ck cmpn n b m-
k. On my w w n n m
h. F, Bz wn cmp n
pc n xp bc my b n -
Chn wn cnmy. In b
h, hw, h pczn h Bzn
cnmy nc fc cmp
wh Chn pc wh.12
A h n ch cny cncy. Chncn mk cnmy ncnncn,
wh cncy p h n n-
. Bz cncy h bn n wy
bcm n h m n h p
y. Accn Bzn Fnnc Mn G
Mn, h pn nnn c-
ncy w, wh n c n . In c,
b h b nnc c, Bz c w
cnc y c n 2007 n 2008.
Ahh Bz n cnb p
wh Chn n h w y ($5.1 bn n 2009n $5.2 bn n 2010), mp m Chn (p
61 pcn m 2009 2010) h bn ncn
pc hn Bzn xp Chn (p
47 pcn n h m p) ( 3).
T cncn p Bzn cnmc fc -
n h n c cncy w wh
Chn, c cncn n Bz nn-cmmy
c. Bzn n n p p,
ch Federacao da Industria do Estado de Sao Paulo
(FIESP) n ny pp h nmn nn-n n Chn mk n 2004, b
p pcn m n Chn
pc.13 Wh h pbm n pn
ny Bz n wh Chn, hh-
h h pn cnmc nby
m Chn hn cn cnmc
pc. In h n, Chn n bh c
cmp, n cmp wh fc
nz wh pcy nnn, bc h
n n h cmmy hh.
Ann cn wh Chn cn h.14 Fhm, h ppc Chn
Figure 3 Brazil-china trade (us$ Billions)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brazilian Exports to China Brazilian Imports from China
Sc: Bzn Mny Dpmn, Iny, n (MDIC).
12 P, Fnn n Mc Ncmn, Viso do Desenvolvimento: o eeito China sobre as importaes brasileiras (T Chn Ec n BznImp), BNDES, 2010.
13 Accn CNI (Bzn Nn Cnn In), 134 pcn m Bz nk n Mch 2010, m hn30 pcn h Chn .
14 In 2010, Chn pn ybn mp m Ann n n Ann cn n Chn mnc mp. A p-pxmy x mnh, Annn fc p n n h p.
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
6
wwn n h n my nc nc-
ny n h Bzn cmmy c, n
cnmy n n. In c, h n-m chn
Bz, mn h Ln Amcn cn,
cy mn h cmmy bnnz -
by Chn mn.
Dp by h Bzn Fn Mny cb ccm n n h Chn n
mpn c pn, h cny h hwn
ncn n n w Chn n h
p mnh. In nmn cc, p c-
nmc fc (n h Fnnc Mny, Nn
Dpmn Bnk, Cn Bnk, c.) h hwn
nc cncn. Oh mn mn
mpmn c m w, mny -
Chn nmn n n pch. T
Mn Dn n Ac Dp-
mn, n h F Pc Ofc (AGU)
h cny ph nw n c
n pch by n. T h bn -
p h h cqn, mny by Chn
-wn np, n cn
n c h n mpc n cy ,
n n n cmmy pc. Anh c-
n cn h cny nnnc c
Embraerspn n Chn, Chn pn
b c n cmpn wh h Bzn
m. Sm, n c, h h Chn cp
Bzn chny h.
Chn p h Bz n h m-
k, nmy n h Un S n Ln Am-
c, wh Bz xp my mnc
. A k 31 mn Bzn xp h
Un S bwn 2003 n 2010 hw h
Bz c h n h U.S. mk by
0.15 pn (m 1.42 1.27), wh Chn n
6.54 n h m p (m 12.10 18.64). T
cn bwn Bzn n Chn
n bcm c whn kn n ccn h
xp mnc n ny m-
pn mk Bz. In Ln Amc, Bz
c m pbm. Fm 2002 2010, Chn
h Ann mp mk w
pc hn Bz, n m 5.6 pcn
12.5 pcn. Bz h wn m 25.6 pcn
31.4 pcn n h m p. In h hm p-
pnc c, xmp, Chn p Bz
Ann mn pp. In Mxc, h nc
n k. Bz h h Mxcn mk
wn m 1.3 pcn n 2002, 1.4 pcn n
2010. Chn m 2.6 pcn 13.9 p-
cn n h m p. Ahh Bz bn-
m n m wh Mxc, nmk h. Dp h w n b
n bh Chn n Bz, h h bn
wn pcpn, mn Bzn h
n h p c, h Chn ncny
bcmn c cmp Bzn mnc-
b.
T c h m h cn
kh bcmn m c w Chn.
A hy b Chn cn n h n,
k Ac n h Ln Amcn cn,
bcm c h Chn Bz c
n c h hn pn n h p-
c n c n. Ahh bh cn
h bn m xchn n h p y,
m Bzn h zn h h
k n h nhp wh Chn h
m b . T nc cncy w,
c, cmpn n h mk, n n-
mn.
Inmn h w cny c byWikiLeaks
h h mn. Accn U.S. n-
mn p n h pcpn Chn ch
n Ln Amcn pm p n Chn, h
cnmc c 2008 n 2009, n h chnn
b cnmc bnc pw, c Chn
y xp mk n m p-
n cn. T cmn, hw, w
c h y. F, h ncn pcp-
n by Chn ch n Bzn pm h
Chn n n Ln Amc mn pmy
cnmc, wh h mn cn n
c. A h Cnc Gn h Bzn
Cn n Shnh Mc Cm P
, Chn y y c: n -
yhn pb cn h ppy cmm-
. Cnqny, Chn c n m pbm
n h n, whch m by kn Ln
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
7
Amcn n n ccn. Scn, ccn
h p, mny n bwn Chn n
Ln Amc m p cnm n
p, bc mny Chn xp cmp
cy wh xp m Ln Amc.15
Ahh Chn n Bz h hwn cn-
b cnn n m n-n ch h Dh Rn h WO,
n bwn h w cn pn
m mc nmn. Cy, h
h wh nc h wn-wn n h
b xchn, wh bh cn cpzn
n h cmp n. B, h
xchn bcm m ymmc (n Chn
), nb cn whh Bzn
fc w h nc w Chn, n -
n n mc b cnc
bwn wnn n n h nhp. F-
hm, nh nb n qnn
whh h b mbnc, p, w
c Bz n Chn m cn-
n h WO. A n Bz mkny
Chn - mk cnmy (by WO
), h k w ky p.
Dp h Mmnm Unnn n
bwn h w cn n Nmb 2004, n
whch Bz cnz Chn mk cnmy, h Bzn nmn h n y y
mpmn h m. Accn cn
p p,16 wh h Fn Mny (MRE)
ph h mpmnn h c,
h Mny Dpmn, Iny, n
(MDIC), n wh h n-mn
ncy (CAMEX), m m cp h
cncn mc n p. Nh-
, Bz h n m n n -
n Chn h w b ncmpb
wh WO pc, n pn
w h my n h pc n.
15 S cb 09SHANGHAI170, Chn Gwn n Inmn wh Ln Amc, 04/15/2009 < hp://wkk.ch/cb/2009/04/09SHANGHAI170.hm>.
16 Vh N Pmc (O Nw Cny), Revista Vejaonline, Jny 27, 2011 .
http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/04/09SHANGHAI170.htmlhttp://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/04/09SHANGHAI170.htmlhttp://veja.abril.com.br/blog/radar-on-line/governo/velha-nova-polemica/http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/radar-on-line/governo/velha-nova-polemica/http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/radar-on-line/governo/velha-nova-polemica/http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/radar-on-line/governo/velha-nova-polemica/http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/04/09SHANGHAI170.htmlhttp://wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/04/09SHANGHAI170.html8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
8
the Political-strategic realm: emerging
Powerswith d iFFerent interests
Chn p c n Bzn x-
p n cnmy n hh pc
xpcn, pmy m Bzn fc.
A pc pnhp wh Chnn h cnmc
n pc nm k pc mch
Bzn n pcy n Pn L. Cn-
cp ch nmy, pmm, n,n Sh-Sh cpn bcm m
Pn L pmcy. In nc B-
z n nnn m n, ch
h Un Nn, IMF, W Bnk, n WO,
cnb nn w n y h b-
cm knwn Sh-Sh pmcy, mn
pw cn. T mn Bzn p-
mcy w nhn cnmc n pc
wh h pn nn n n pw, n
pn k h BRIC IBSA (In, Bz, n
Sh Ac). Chn pnc n h Dh RnBz- G20 cn, mn h pn,
m cnm h cn Bz c
cn w h An cny.17
Fm Bzn ppc, h cn hy h
b n h h n h n b-
hn Bz y n wh Chn n q
m. A h bhmn pmc -
n n h 1970, h w ph w b-
chnc cpn n h pc
ny n h 1980. A h m, Bz n Chnh m GDP n Bz h h pp hn n
m chny. T h mn
mny Bzn fc, h h w ncny
ymmc ncn bwn h w cn.
T c h cnmc n b Bz n
Chn mn cnm n h y 2000
cnb h mpcpn h bh cn
h cmmn n n h cnmc n n
byn. T xmp h mc-
cn by Bz, ch ncc bn h n Dh Rn pn
cn cn (h G20) nc n-
. Chn, mn h cn, .
T pczn h BRIC m,
cmmn pc n, my mn
h mn pw cn n h n .
Ahh m pc cnn bwn B-
z n Chn w m cc, ch h
nc n h bh cn h n h
IMF, h c h c pnhp -b. In h pc n c m, Chn
mn n m Bz. Wh Bz h
bn cn n pw wh b mb-
n, Chn y b pw wh nc
wpn (Bzn 2004). M, h w cn
c y n n cnx. In cn wh
h ppchmn n bwn Sh Amc
w pw, Bz n Ann, n h
h c, y mn An cn
h n cy cncn. h pn,
Bz b pmnn n h UN ScyCnc w ny hh b ccp by Ch-
n, whch y pmnn mmb. B whn
Bz nch cc b wh In, Gmny,
17 F pnmc w Pn L w Chn n h cp b cpn, Bzn Mny Fn Rnp n. 213, 526, n 527, .
8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
9
n Jpn n 2005, Chn mmy pp ny
Scy Cnc m. T k Bzn f-
c bck, nc hy h m n , p
n mc ppn, h pc
cnz Chn mk cnmy h y
b ( pq Chn mn
h WO). Ahh h w n xpc bn
n bh , cnn Chn w hhh pc c Bz h .18
Whn cm ch hmn h,
cm chn, n nc pn, c-
nn bwn Bz n Chn fc.
Bz cn n c h Un Nn
Hmn Rh Cnc n Gn Amby -
c n cncn nn-nnn n
pp hn m. Hw, n c-
y, Bz bn mccy wh nc-
ny pn b b n pcy n h-
mn h. Ofc hc , n h n-m,
Bz ky n n n n whn
cm hmn h. A h cm chn
nn, bh cn pp h pncp
h, y n, pnb bwn
p n pn nn. Hw, h
cnm xpn, ncn nc n m
nnmn pc ky bcm m
b. Wh Chn nh mn h
m n p, Bz pm-
y h n. In m ccy
p, xmp, Bz cn n
cnmy m mp. Bz p
80% hycc cpcy, n m-
j b mk. Fny, Bz n Chn hw
m cpby cpn n nc p-
n. Whn Bz n ky bk
bwn h UN Scy Cnc n In
y, Chn h U.S.-bck n
ncn In.
In h h, Bz n Chn h cmmn
w n h mn pc p-C W
w ? Chn n Bz (n wh h h-
w BRIC cn) m h h pc,cnmc, n my mn nnc h n-
nn hh h wn n,
by. M, hy h my n-
b h hy h py m pmnn
n b . Wh h h ncmp,
hw, pn n npn. Chn
nc pc n n n whn
cm nnn cy m n
pw cnn (n h Scy Cnc, x-
mp). A h n nnn m
(hmn h, cm chn, c.), mc -
b, ch pc m (mccy-ccy)
n ny pcn (m cbn-nn-
), m n ny pnn cnn
bwn Bz n Chn n h nnn n.
M, wh n , Bz
y cmb pn n Sh Amc
p n yp cnn hn h n Ch-
n c. T, n n, my hw ch cny
p, bh whn n n n hw
wh U.S. pnc n h n.
In m, p h mm y mb -
c hc m bh nmn (hh h
pp c mny n h Bzn ), pm-
ny nc h h pb n-
m cnn n m m m
by mc (nn) n n b.
18 T n, m Bz ppc, my hp xpn why Bz m b n n mpmnn h ch n Chn mk cnmy .
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
10
Fo reig n d i r e c t in v e s t m e n t (Fdi) a n d
Qu a l i t y o F go v e r n a n c e
I nw cmmn mpn mn nn
cnmc n pc h h qy h n-
n nnmn cny n n-
m cnmc pmnc.19 Cn wh b-
nn, cpb pcn ppy h,
chckn pcn cn, n ppyn -
ny pc, w n m n phyc n h-mn cp, n w h c m fcny
ch b n-m cnmc pmnc.
I m h nn n q-
y nnc cc pc n hpn -
pn cn c n c nmn
(FDI) cnc wh. Ahh
h h fc bh -
b c nhp bwn h FDI
n p wh pmnc, p-
n cn wh nnc nn h xpnc hh cnmc wh. In
h pc c Chn, n-n m
h cnb ncny Chn mp
xp xpnn n Chn cnmc
wh.20 FDI h bn mj cnb
Bz mp p-w n wh. Bz-
n cnmc hy hw w nc p: h
nw, Imp Sbn Inzn (ISI)
p, n h w xp p. In bh p-
, FDI h c nnc.21
Inn qy n mpn mnn
cp nw.22 In n, h n
cny h c mpc n cp nw m
1970 2000. Sn mpc nc pp
h w h cn cnby m ky
bn m nnc bzn whn hy k
mn pmm n m n mp nnc, npncy, n nnc
c n.23 In h w, cny
mk p n npncy, cn cp-
n, w, n nnc pn cpcy
w b n n ncny b pn bn
m nnc bzn.
Cpn h ny n c n FDI
nw. A hh cpn my c
h cmpn cny cp nw n
mnn h mk m nb h k pc ck n cn c. In -
n, cn wh wk nnc, c
by hh pc cpn, m
ky h c cp nw h
y h n FDI n y hy n -
n bnk c. On h h hn, npncy
nmn pn, whch mh b n-
p nh nc nnc, h
n p c n nmn nw m
nnn m n.
19 D. Nh, D, Structure and Change in Economic History, W. W. Nn, 1981 n D. Acm, S. Jhnn n J. A. Rbnn, TCn On Cmp Dpmn: An Empc Inn, Te American Economic Review, 91(5), 2001, pp. 1369-1401.
20 N. Ly, Nch, China in the World Economy, In Innn Ecnmc, 1994.21 W. Fch n G. Fnc, Fn Dc Inmn n Bz: I Impc n In Rcn, OECD, 1991.22 L. A, S. Km-Ozcn, n V. Vych, Cp Fw n Gbz W: T R Pc n Inn, NBER Wkn
Pp, 2005.23 P, R, W, n K, T Ec Fnnc Gbzn n Dpn Cn: Sm Empc Enc, Innn
Mny Fn Occn Pp 220, 2003.
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8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
12
nn n n, Bz
hh qy nnc h mk b
cn FDI hn Chn. Hw, nc
hw h Chn h n b n cn FDI
m n m.
T, Chn h cnc h
xpcn h cny mk p n
npncy, cn cpn, w, n
nnc py cpcy, w b n n nc-
ny b pn m nnc bzn.29
Hw, Chn h n ny nc c-
cnby n pc by n c-
pn. Ahh Chn h n mp
y qy n w, h nnc
nc pn n c.
Figure 4 Foreign direct investment, netinFlows (BoP current us$): Braziland china
taBle 1 ranking governance indicatorsin Braziland china (Percentile rank,0-100)
1.6E+11
1.4E+11
1.2E+11
1E+11
8E+10
6E+10
4E+10
2E+10
0
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Brazil China
Sc: Bzn Mny Dpmn, Iny, n (MDIC).
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR BRAZIL CHINA
1998 2009 1998 2009
Voice and Accountability 55.3 (+0.19) 62.1 (+0.51) 9.6 (-1.38) 5.2 (-1.65)
Political Stability 29.8 (-0.38) 54.2 (+0.29) 38.5 (-0.16) 29.7 (-0.44)
Government Effectiveness 54.4 (-0.10) 57.6 (+0.08) 44.7 (-0.33) 58.1 (+0.12)
Regulatory Quality 59.5 (+0.30) 55.2 (+0.18) 39.0 (-0.26) 46.2 (-0.20)
Rule of Law 43.8 (-0.30) 49.5 (-0.18) 40.0 (-0.37) 45.3 (-0.35)
Control of Corruption 58.7 (+0.05) 56.2 (+0.07) 47.1 (-0.26) 36.2 (-0.53)
N: In pnh h Gnnc Sc, whch n m -2.5 +2.5.Sc: D. Kmn, A. Ky, n M. Mzz, T Ww Gnnc Inc: Mhy n Anyc I, W Bnk PcyRch Wkn Pp 5430, 2010.
29 P, R, W, n K, T Ec Fnnc Gbzn n Dpn Cn: Sm Empc Enc, Innn MnyFn Occn Pp 220, 2003.
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
13
h nc h pn, npncy In-
nn cny nn CPI (Cp-
n Pcpn Inx) p 2010. T cm-
p nx nnn n
cpn n h w nk cn n
c m z ( cpn) n (z c-
pn). In 2009, Bz w nk 75h n Chn
nk 79h mn 180 nn. In 2010, Bz wnk 69h n Chn mp n pn, nk-
n nw 79h mn 178 cnwh h m
c (3.6 n 3.7 pcy). T 69h nk
h by Cb, Bz, Mnn, n Rm-
n. T nk h by Dnmk, Nw Z-
n, n Snp. In Ln Amc, Ch nk
21b h Un S, Uy, n Vn-
z 22n, 24h, n 164h pcy. Amn
An cn, Chn nk 14h bhn Jpn,
wn, Sh K, n My (5h, 6h, 9h, n
11h pcy). Sm w , n 178h nk.
Hw cn h pzz b ? In h w, wh
w nnc nc, why n hw h Chn
bn b c n c nmn
hn hh qy nk cny k Bz,
wh pn n ppy h b c?
Chn n Bz bh h y n b n
h xc bnch. Hw, n Bz, h n
mn bnk chck h pn. In h w,
Bz cn mccy wh pw
nn nc -mczn n 1985. A-
ny, nn, ch n npnn
jcy, npnn pbc pc, de acto n-
pnn Cn Bnk, c, n n
cmp m chck h xc mnnc.30
T m, hw, cnn b b Chn,
wh h y w, ny, npnn ccn-
b nn cpb cnnn h Cmm-
n Py cn nmn.
T n m pzzn whn nnc n-
c mn mn cnm cmp,
pcy mn h BRIC. F 5 hw h
nnc cmp nx (n h x
nc) mn h cn, mn-
n h Bz b pn hn Chn, In-
, n R, w mn h mn
cnm. Why hn Bz b qy
nnc n n n hh FDI, pcy
n cmpn wh Chn?
A nmb c c xpn h pzz, -
n Chn n cmpn wh Bz. In 1979, h
Lw n Chn-Fn Eqy Jn Vn,
h wh h bhmn pc c-
nmc zn, Chn pn h n -
c nmn. In h wn y, h Chn
nmn pm w n n p-
ccy c nmn m .
Chn mkb cnmc cc n
nn pc m pn cn-
b cb cmmmn mk.
T m c pc yp nn-
z cnzn c m, Chn
y.31 T m cnzn h h
cnqnc. F, cmpn, bh
n pc mk n mn c nmn,
b n n cp. T cmpn, n
n, nc c nmn xpmnn
n nn, wh nw m np, -
n, n cnmc nhp. Scn, p-
ncn c nmn pm
c cnmc ppy. Fny, p -
ncn mn pcn c nmn
n h np m pc nn by h
cn nmn.
In n, Chn h p mn
n n m n y wy: n n-
w y x hy, p h bqn
y h h nm x . Sch bn,
hw, n xn mc Chn m.
Cny n xpcn, hw, Chn
n nch h c nmn,
30 Bz cny 58h n h Fm P Inx, wh In 122n, R 140h,n Chn 171. In c, Bz w h ny cnyh mp n h nk mn BRIC cn.
31 Wn, B., Q. Yny, n G. Mnn, Fm, Chn Sy: T Pc B Ecnmc Scc n Chn, World Politics48 (1),1995, pp. 50-81.
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
14
cnn z, pxmy mj c cn-
, n h c.32 Hn Kn h m-
nn c n n Chn, wh ny 60 p-
cn h FDI. Jpn n h Un S
h cn n h n n Chn. In,Szn p Fn Inmn n Chn n In,
h Shn-Jn W qn Hn Kn n-
mn n Mnn Chn h b cn
FDI, pcy Jy 1, 1997, whn Bn -
ny n h y Chn. W
h h n-ppn cp, n c, h -
n n h mnn Hn Kn n-
mn k n x, , n h
bn cc n-n m. W
p nc h cpn y hh n
Chn, whch h c n n.
T, wh h b n c n-
mn n Chn k y mp n cn
y ( b 2), whn b ch pp-
n z cn, Chn n b -
ncn nch h FDI. In h
w, Chn c h n b cn
FDI h mp nnc qy. T cmn b 2 cy h Bz
n R pm b hn Chn n m
FDI p cp.33
taBle 2 Brics Basic statistics
CountryPop.
(mn)
GDP
(bn)
GDP per
cap.
(000s)
Annual
FDI
(bn)
FDI per
capita
Brazil 192 1,575 8.2 319 1,659
Russia 142 1,679 11.8 256 1,800
India 1,140 1,159 1.0 161 141
China 1,325 4,327 3.3 576 435
Figure 5 how do Brics measure uPon governance?
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
BRAZIL CHINA INDIA RUSSIA Emerging
economies
Sc: D. Kmn, A. Ky, n M. Mzz, T Ww Gnnc Inc: Mhy n Anyc I, W Bnk PcyRch Wkn Pp 5430, 2010.N: M by h h b n n h x nnc nc.
32 W, Shn, Jn, Szn p Fn Inmn n Chn n In, Sn Uny Wkn Pp 85, 2000.33 Kmn, D., A. Ky, n M. Mzz, T Ww Gnnc Inc: Mhy n Anyc I, W Bnk Pcy
Rch Wkn Pp 5430, 2010.
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
15
T, h nn cnmc my
b cc. Qy nnc m, pcy
n n-m ccnmc wh,
p nn n n-
. A cnnn cnmc nmn
n pc, nnc nc bcm ncny
bnn.
Bz n Chn n cmp n
nmn, b h cmpn cmpx. I
qy nnc py nb , h
w b n c n n m pc
nn m Bz nc h w
FDI -- Chn. Bc ppn
z, n ck nn p chck n
bnc, Chn w ny b p -
nmn. B nnc m
n h n n, h cn bwn p n-
c n wn nmn w ky
bcm m n n . T, n-n m y , ch cny
cpb n b nnmn
m nmn, hw h cn
bh n h m.
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
16
co n clus io n a n d reco m m en datio n s
Th Bz-Chn n w p
cnn chn pcymk n n-
y k. Ahh h w cn my b
n ny mn, n pw wh
b mbn, h nn n p
mwk cpb cpn h nnc h
nhp. A c k n cnx p- nh n h cn n ppch
nnn cy. Wh c y h
bn n cncp n Sh Amc nc h
Bzn-Annn nc ppchmn h
1980, Chn c cc cy mm n
wn n, wh pn mn m
Jpn, In, n R, n h cnn my
pnc h Un S.
Hw Chn n Bz h bn c by n -
c h bzn pc p pzz.On , p y c p bh
cn n h p c, h nhp b-
cmn ncny ymmc. Sm n
h h Nh-Sh pc h Chn-Bz
nhp hbn pn n
mc chn n Bz cnmy, ch n-
zn.34 A nmn, h py
bwn h w cn n m nnc n-
c n cp nw nc n nc p-
. Wh h n mn Chn h
h n, c k h cn b-wn nnc n nmn n h
n n. T m b mcc B-
z. M, h py my n
ppch n m n cnmc pcy. Bh
Chn n Bz h nc n c n-
mn b, pmy n Ln Amc, Ac,
n A.35 I h y b xmn Bz n
Chn n ppch n n wh -nnc nc n h cn, n h my
m cmpn bwn h w cn
n h mn w.
T pp h xn n whch Bz n
Chn cn b np pn cmp-
. Ap m , wh bh pn,
Chn n Bz n h m cmp
nhp n h n-m, whch my bcm
m nn bh cn nc h p-
nc n h n. En n n, Bzn Chn h y n mbnc nhp (n
Chn ). T pc cmp cc
h mk; n hy ny cmp c
n nmn. T wn p m
mny m n mc nn c-
n ch cny, mk-ny n m-
cc Bz, n n hn n cnmcy
mnp Chn. Hw h n w
w b cc, n ny h cnmc mnn
h nhp, b h pc-c
pc w. Sy cpn bwnh w cn x, b h c
34 Accn h Bzn In Gphy n Sc (IBGE), h n c h Bz GDP 15.5 pcn n 2009, hw nc 1947.
35 Chn nmn n Ln Amc bwn 2008 n 2009 (m $3.7 bn n 2008, $7.3 bn n 2009) h Chn nh n cnnn cc p pc. Sc m Chn Mny nc h, A, Ln Amc h cn nn Chn nmn.
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8/7/2019 Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?
22/24
F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
18
nmn nby. Chn, n wn m,
h n b c by cn cnmc p-
mnc. I h k nhnc nnc,
pcy wh c n ccnb-
y n cn n cpn, nc whch
Chn ncny . Sn , Chn
m mp nn nc
cpcy c n n.
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F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s
B r a z i l a n d C h i n a : S o u t h - S o u t h P a r t n e r S h i P o r n o r t h - S o u t h C o m P e t i t i o n ?
19
aBo ut t h e auth o r
Carlos Pereira n w n h Fn Pcy n GbEcnmy n Dpmn Pm T Bkn Inn. H
n n p cmp pc n h Dpmn P-
c Scnc Mchn S Uny. P ch c n
pc cnmy n pbc pcy n cmp ppc n Ln
Amc.
Joo Augusto de Castro Neves pc ny n n CAC Pc Cnncy, m b n Bz. In n, C
N c n n pc cnc h Uny S
P, Bz. H cny wk n Whnn, D.C. n npnn
pc cnn n ch n Bzn pc n n pcy.
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Th Bkn Inn1775 Mch A., NW
Whnn, D.C. 20036bkn.