Aquaculture in England, Wales and Northern Ireland AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND VALUE OF THE MAJOR SUB-SECTORS AND THE MOST IMPORTANT FARMED SPECIES

John Hambrey & Sue Evans

Aims and objectives

to demonstrate quantitatively and qualitatively how the economic performance of existing aquaculture businesses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) may be improved, and capacity of the industry increased. present status of the industry distribution and contribution competitive strengths and weaknesses and market opportunity measures – applied via government, market structure or other

group – that would lead to sectoral growth

Scope and detail

Examined 16 subsectors Location, contribution, SWOT

Main value chain elements

Talked to Industry, academics, government On-line survey Explored government database and recent analysis Developed our own database Mapped the economic contribution of the industry Reviewed nature of value chain and likely multipliers

caveats Economics is an art not a science

The figures – ours and government – should be taken with a pinch of salt. They are best informed guesses

Use of multipliers - very blunt

A more accurate analysis would depend on full, detailed and representative disclosure – neither possible, nor necessary?

The perspective of industry and other stakeholders is variable and sometimes elusive We can only represent part of the picture, and what we select for

emphasis is influenced by our own history and prejudice

We would have liked to spend far more time talking to industry and other stakeholders, but we had to bash away on dubious data.

Main findings

The sector

Production trend: 30-20,000t - stable for 3 decades; decline to 2014 - all 3 countries, shellfish, finfish

Total direct value around £54m (farm gate sales) – roughly equal, finfish/shellfish. About 50% of this value added – less for fin-fish; more for shellfish

Estimated 1,000 direct jobs – mainly countryside and coastal Mainly small businesses serving local and recreational demand

Often integrated with other recreational services

Total contribution to the economy around £100m and 1,700 FTE jobs Plus household and countryside education, recreation and jobs

Regional and sub-sector economic contribution

Most jobs in the SE and SW of England, followed by Northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales

Most important sub sectors by region: SE England: oysters, coarse fish, ornamentals, trout

SW England: trout, oysters, mussels, coarse fish

N England: trout and salmon (fry); oyster

N Ireland: trout, oyster, mussel

Wales: mussel, trout, oyster

Distribution of aquaculture production

• IS IT IMPORTANT? • CAN IT BE MORE IMPORTANT? • WHAT’S HOLDING IT BACK?

Very different types of business

Trout in decline

Table – competition (low cost producers; quality producers; constraints on scale); partial substitutes; flavour; retailer demands; labour/skills.

Stocking: demand (culture, regulation); labour/skills

Future? Smoked and other specialist gourmet products + marketing Ova – become world leaders in supplying salmonid ova

Salmon and sea trout some limited opportunity

North of England important for salmon parr/smolts Some modest expansion possible, but competition from Scotland

and RAS Salmon/seatrout in Northern Ireland

Climate change?? Some limited expansion based on niche branded product

Coastal/offshore growout in England and Wales Likely to be uncompetitive

Carp and other coarse fish: Steady

Important contribution across rural areas in the South in terms of modest employment but significant contribution to culture/recreation/landscape

Seems to have a stronger enthusiast base than salmonid angling

Future: limited growth opportunities but should be able to maintain significant contribution to rural south. Exports: could bring in more Dutch, German, French anglers?

Ornamentals: limited opportunities

Potential for one or two more farms to supply cold water pond reared ornamentals Reduces disease import risks

Potential for one or more large scale RAS to produce wider range of small tropical species Reduces disease import risks Limited by breeding difficulties High skills and dedication Competition from “informal” garage production?

Substantial downstream benefits, but these realised also with imports

Oysters significant potential

Long history, comparative advantage, biosecurity? Strong French and Asian markets and increasingly constrained

overseas production Increasing UK market

3 hatcheries – significant constraint.

Need more to even supply and reduce risk

Catch 22 – need balanced supply and demand

Cannot be solved by individuals – needs industry or government or industry/government initiative

Mussels significant potential

Strong national, European, global market Good growth conditions especially in S of England

Shetland success with longer growout

SSMG

New Zealand example of scale and efficiency

John Holmyard offshore large scale – game changer?

Very tough to get going – compounding issues, multiplies risk and uncertainty; and greatly increases payback Site suitability/testing (settlement, growth, fouling)

Planning/regulation

Scallops and clams Significant potential

Comparative advantage, growth rates, biosecurity Strong demand (national, European, global)

Similar constraints as for oysters:

Seed supply – balanced demand and supply

Testing growout sites

Security at growout sites

RAS specialist applications

Well proven and well used for hatchery and early rearing where value/weight ratio is high

Unlikely to be economic for on-growing finfish Poor experience to date, much government and private sector

investment lost Unrealistic feasibility studies driven by technical specialists High cost; high risk; competition from countries with natural

comparative advantage

Measures that might lead to sectoral growth

Bivalve shellfish probably greatest potential

Weak enabling environment: Seed supply issues Slowed/constrained by planning/regulation Threatened by water quality (market price/category; closures)

Some constraints attributable to - and might be eased by - government Joint initiative?

Testing/piloting (modelling or practical?) Identification of favourable zones/SROs Permissions/EIA etc done by MMO and/or IFCAs? And licenses offered? National seed strategy

Other Carp production/recreation: will probably take care of itself Ornamentals: a few good technical entrepreneurs Trout

marketing new value added products?

Retailers attitude to animal proteins

Abstraction costs

Triploid rule?

General R&D

Attitude of authorities

Data collection and analysis (DCF now off?)

An impression

Real frustration with government: Too much; too little; not fit for purpose

Planning: to facilitate sustainable development, or constrain development

Lack of contact and understanding of practicalities - reliance on reports like ours

Questionnaires v discussions

Real frustration with attitudes to development Preservationist v working landscape

Lack of young, skilled enthusiasts

Thankyou

Hambrey Consulting 2016

A lesson from Asia?