Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff

EBFM PDT Chair

EBFM Risk AssessmentJune 21, 2018

EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment

Dr. Sarah Gaichas, EBFM PDT Similar document developed and adopted by MAFMC Presented to ICES WGNARS meeting – March 2018 Identifies categories of risk – related to objectives Associates indicator trends to assess potential risk Adapted to focus on NE species Potential uses Decision support tool for MSE Augment Council risk assessment policy

Feedback for further development, tailored to NEFMC priorities and issues

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NEFMC State of the Ecosystem ReportObjectives and Indicators

Current thermal habitat

Current/past density

20-40 year TH projection

Habitat/species distribution

Sea scallop

Atlantic cod

Sea surface temperature

GOM GB

p j Phytoplankton

Biomass – Community diversitySpring

Fall

Species composition measured through Shannon diversity of planktonic larvae

Slight decline in spring larval diversity in past decade

Possibly indicative of species shifts and changes in spawn timing

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Indicators Mid Atlantic EAFM Opportunity: use indicators from State of the

Ecosystem to inform further risk assessment

Indicator Risk

Revenue

EmploymentSeafood

Production

Habitat

Climate

Mid-Atlantic EAFM Risk Assessment Clarify exactly what we are assessing and why

What are we measuring = Risk Elements Why are we measuring it = Risk Definition How are we measuring it = Indicators Used

Full document reviewed in December 2017:http://www.mafmc.org/s/SOE_MAB_RiskAssess-lz

Types of Risk Elements

EcologicalEconomicSocialFood ProductionManagement

EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment

Risk elements: pages 2 - 3 Ecological elements: pages 4 - 18 Economic elements: pages 18 - 22 Social-Cultural elements: page 23 - 27 Food production elements: page 28 - 29 Management elements: pages 29 - 32 Risk summary: pages 33 - 34

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Risk Elements

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Risk Levels

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NEFMC Managed Species

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Example Georges Bank/New England results

EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment

Presented to the EBFM PDT on June 8 Good initial start Risk elements and definition of risk levels need refinement Would be a useful tool for supporting MSE, guiding discussion and evaluation Need to focus on all Georges Bank species and their interactions Could be integrated into and developed during MSE

Could be a useful part of formal risk policy (EAFM) Focus on all NEFMC managed species Would be a comprehensive effort Take considerable time and effort to develop

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