Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff EBFM PDT Chair...Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff EBFM PDT Chair EBFM Risk...
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Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff EBFM PDT Chair EBFM Risk Assessment June 21, 2018
Transcript of Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff EBFM PDT Chair...Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff EBFM PDT Chair EBFM Risk...
Andrew Applegate NEFMC Staff
EBFM PDT Chair
EBFM Risk AssessmentJune 21, 2018
EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment
Dr. Sarah Gaichas, EBFM PDT Similar document developed and adopted by MAFMC Presented to ICES WGNARS meeting – March 2018 Identifies categories of risk – related to objectives Associates indicator trends to assess potential risk Adapted to focus on NE species Potential uses Decision support tool for MSE Augment Council risk assessment policy
Feedback for further development, tailored to NEFMC priorities and issues
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NEFMC State of the Ecosystem ReportObjectives and Indicators
Current thermal habitat
Current/past density
20-40 year TH projection
Habitat/species distribution
Sea scallop
Atlantic cod
Sea surface temperature
GOM GB
p j Phytoplankton
Biomass – Community diversitySpring
Fall
Species composition measured through Shannon diversity of planktonic larvae
Slight decline in spring larval diversity in past decade
Possibly indicative of species shifts and changes in spawn timing
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Indicators Mid Atlantic EAFM Opportunity: use indicators from State of the
Ecosystem to inform further risk assessment
Indicator Risk
Revenue
EmploymentSeafood
Production
Habitat
Climate
Mid-Atlantic EAFM Risk Assessment Clarify exactly what we are assessing and why
What are we measuring = Risk Elements Why are we measuring it = Risk Definition How are we measuring it = Indicators Used
Full document reviewed in December 2017:http://www.mafmc.org/s/SOE_MAB_RiskAssess-lz
Types of Risk Elements
EcologicalEconomicSocialFood ProductionManagement
EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment
Risk elements: pages 2 - 3 Ecological elements: pages 4 - 18 Economic elements: pages 18 - 22 Social-Cultural elements: page 23 - 27 Food production elements: page 28 - 29 Management elements: pages 29 - 32 Risk summary: pages 33 - 34
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Risk Elements
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Risk Levels
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NEFMC Managed Species
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Example Georges Bank/New England results
EXAMPLE Georges Bank EBFM Risk Assessment
Presented to the EBFM PDT on June 8 Good initial start Risk elements and definition of risk levels need refinement Would be a useful tool for supporting MSE, guiding discussion and evaluation Need to focus on all Georges Bank species and their interactions Could be integrated into and developed during MSE
Could be a useful part of formal risk policy (EAFM) Focus on all NEFMC managed species Would be a comprehensive effort Take considerable time and effort to develop
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