Post on 05-Dec-2014
description
Estimize Select ConsensusAdding intelligence to crowdsourced data
What is Estimize.com
Crowdsource fundamental estimates (EPS/Revenue)
Over 3,000 contributing analysts, 16,000 registered members, coverage of 930 stocks
Free open platform, we don’t use a give to get model
Sell full feed of data via API to quantitative hedge funds
Stack: MongoDB, Ruby, Backbone, Javascript
Crowdsourcing Is Scary
Agnostic regarding identity of contributors
Agnostic regarding contributor’s methodology
Reliability algorithm keeps bad data out of consensus
Estimate confidence scores weight select consensus
Demo
Estimate ReliabilityAll estimates go through a 3 step flagging process
Start by building an “error range” for each earnings report
Users are then warned when publishing estimates outside of range that estimate will be flagged
After estimate is submitted we build a flagging range for each user
Flagged estimates are not included in consensus, reviewed manually
Select ConsensusRun linear regression between accuracy and various attributes of an analyst and the estimate
Highest correlated: accuracy, difficulty, history, recency, bias
Normalized confidence score for each estimate is used to weight Select Consensus
Research done by Vinesh Jha using SAS, production implementation done by Brian Smith using Go
Thank YouLeigh DrogenFounder and CEOLeigh@estimize.com