Estimize Select ConsensusAdding intelligence to crowdsourced data

What is Estimize.com

Crowdsource fundamental estimates (EPS/Revenue)

Over 3,000 contributing analysts, 16,000 registered members, coverage of 930 stocks

Free open platform, we don’t use a give to get model

Sell full feed of data via API to quantitative hedge funds

Stack: MongoDB, Ruby, Backbone, Javascript

Crowdsourcing Is Scary

Agnostic regarding identity of contributors

Agnostic regarding contributor’s methodology

Reliability algorithm keeps bad data out of consensus

Estimate confidence scores weight select consensus

Demo

Estimate ReliabilityAll estimates go through a 3 step flagging process

Start by building an “error range” for each earnings report

Users are then warned when publishing estimates outside of range that estimate will be flagged

After estimate is submitted we build a flagging range for each user

Flagged estimates are not included in consensus, reviewed manually

Select ConsensusRun linear regression between accuracy and various attributes of an analyst and the estimate

Highest correlated: accuracy, difficulty, history, recency, bias

Normalized confidence score for each estimate is used to weight Select Consensus

Research done by Vinesh Jha using SAS, production implementation done by Brian Smith using Go

Thank YouLeigh DrogenFounder and CEOLeigh@estimize.com