A World of Connections:The coming age of ubiquitous networking

Kenneth Neil Cukier

GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

The Internet Today

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The Internet of Tomorrow

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* Computing and networking: PC & Web via wire1. few | 2. humans | 3. discrete sessions | 4. media

content and comms

* Changing to devices & sensors via wireless1. ever-present | 2. objects | 3. all the time | 4. data

about the world

Introduction

We are laying the foundation…

For a new infrastructure…

We do not know how it will be used…

But it will surprise us!

Overview

Outline

- Trends: computing, IT, processors, wireless- Taxonomy of technologies- Current and future uses:

* cars * factories* bodies

- Public Policy & Regulation- Conclusion

Trends in Computing

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Trends in I.T.

* 850 million PCs* +1 billion Internet users* 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day)* 10 billion microprocessors in 2007

Trends in Processors: Moore’s Law

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Trends in Wireless Efficiency

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Trends in Wireless Cost

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Trends in Power Consumption

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Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic

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Machines vs. Humans

- Transactions by computers exceed people- 12% of DNS traffic from computers alone- M2M to surpass people circa 2009-2011 - Cell phones communicate with base-stations

800 times per second (power management)- 400 billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak

load of 4 trillion)

“Things that think want to link.”

-- Nicholas Negroponte, MIT, 1995

The Marriage of Chips and Communications

Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies

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Examples

* GPS & Bluetooth chip: $1; size of match-head* Zigbee chip: $4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost &

size in 4 yrs* RFID tag: ¥5* RFID prototype: 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint)* RFID 2006 sales: 1 million (2007: 1.7 million)

Uses

* Machine-to-machine: mousetraps; vending* Sensors: buildings; environment; military* New infrastructure: lighting; paint; dust* Human bodies: monitoring; activation* Cellphones: the gateway & controller

Market Size by Volume

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Market Breakdown by Application

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Future Uses: Cars

* Accident notification* Predictive maintenance* Toll charges

* New uses: insurance rates; sub-prime loans; theft-prevention; traffic monitoring

Chips in Cars

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Future Uses: Factories

* Lighting controls / Security alarms* Remote control / Operations monitoring* Predictive Maintenance

* New uses: how processes learn

Chips in Factories

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Future Uses: Bodies

* Vital signs* Heart fluid-pressure monitoring* Alcohol and drug intake* Blood-sugar levels & insulin dosage

* New Uses: post-operative treatment

Chips in Bodies

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Obstacles

* Who would do it?* Who will pay for it?* Do we need it?* Will it actually work??!!

Public Policy

* Privacy* Data-security* Intellectual property* Information overload* Radio-waves and health* Spectrum availability and allocation___________________________________* Interconnection of separate systems* Computer memory & “forgetting”

Regulation

* Who, what, where, when, how?* Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships* Public- vs. private-sector governance* The risk of regulating too soon

Comparison of Cellphone & M2M units

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“People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and

underestimate what will happen in ten.”

-- Bill Gates, “The Road Ahead,” 1995

Conclusion

Thank you

<kennethcukier@economist.com>

GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

Sources

Indicated by slide number:1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, 33. -- N/A2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 16, 19. -- The Economist, 2007 (references for data

sources on published articles; contact speaker for more info)7. ITU, 200512. Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007). 13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC)20, Gartner, 200622. Automotive Engineering International24. BP, CommsDesign.com, 200426. VeriChip, Medtronic30. Jupiter Research, 2006