A World of Connections: The coming age of ubiquitous networking Kenneth Neil Cukier GLOCOM - October...
-
Upload
deirdre-paul -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of A World of Connections: The coming age of ubiquitous networking Kenneth Neil Cukier GLOCOM - October...
A World of Connections:The coming age of ubiquitous networking
Kenneth Neil Cukier
GLOCOM - October 22, 2007
The Internet Today
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
The Internet of Tomorrow
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
* Computing and networking: PC & Web via wire1. few | 2. humans | 3. discrete sessions | 4. media
content and comms
* Changing to devices & sensors via wireless1. ever-present | 2. objects | 3. all the time | 4. data
about the world
Introduction
We are laying the foundation…
For a new infrastructure…
We do not know how it will be used…
But it will surprise us!
Overview
Outline
- Trends: computing, IT, processors, wireless- Taxonomy of technologies- Current and future uses:
* cars * factories* bodies
- Public Policy & Regulation- Conclusion
Trends in Computing
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Trends in I.T.
* 850 million PCs* +1 billion Internet users* 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day)* 10 billion microprocessors in 2007
Trends in Processors: Moore’s Law
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Trends in Wireless Efficiency
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Trends in Wireless Cost
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Trends in Power Consumption
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Machines vs. Humans
- Transactions by computers exceed people- 12% of DNS traffic from computers alone- M2M to surpass people circa 2009-2011 - Cell phones communicate with base-stations
800 times per second (power management)- 400 billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak
load of 4 trillion)
“Things that think want to link.”
-- Nicholas Negroponte, MIT, 1995
The Marriage of Chips and Communications
Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Examples
* GPS & Bluetooth chip: $1; size of match-head* Zigbee chip: $4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost &
size in 4 yrs* RFID tag: ¥5* RFID prototype: 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint)* RFID 2006 sales: 1 million (2007: 1.7 million)
Uses
* Machine-to-machine: mousetraps; vending* Sensors: buildings; environment; military* New infrastructure: lighting; paint; dust* Human bodies: monitoring; activation* Cellphones: the gateway & controller
Market Size by Volume
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Market Breakdown by Application
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Future Uses: Cars
* Accident notification* Predictive maintenance* Toll charges
* New uses: insurance rates; sub-prime loans; theft-prevention; traffic monitoring
Chips in Cars
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Future Uses: Factories
* Lighting controls / Security alarms* Remote control / Operations monitoring* Predictive Maintenance
* New uses: how processes learn
Chips in Factories
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Future Uses: Bodies
* Vital signs* Heart fluid-pressure monitoring* Alcohol and drug intake* Blood-sugar levels & insulin dosage
* New Uses: post-operative treatment
Chips in Bodies
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Obstacles
* Who would do it?* Who will pay for it?* Do we need it?* Will it actually work??!!
Public Policy
* Privacy* Data-security* Intellectual property* Information overload* Radio-waves and health* Spectrum availability and allocation___________________________________* Interconnection of separate systems* Computer memory & “forgetting”
Regulation
* Who, what, where, when, how?* Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships* Public- vs. private-sector governance* The risk of regulating too soon
Comparison of Cellphone & M2M units
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
“People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and
underestimate what will happen in ten.”
-- Bill Gates, “The Road Ahead,” 1995
Conclusion
Sources
Indicated by slide number:1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, 33. -- N/A2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 16, 19. -- The Economist, 2007 (references for data
sources on published articles; contact speaker for more info)7. ITU, 200512. Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007). 13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC)20, Gartner, 200622. Automotive Engineering International24. BP, CommsDesign.com, 200426. VeriChip, Medtronic30. Jupiter Research, 2006