A Simulation Revolution is Needed to Solve the CAE Industry’s Problems

Business Drivers

Business Drivers

The worldwide business environment is seeing a strong focus on strategic goals for improving competitiveness

Business DriversThe Role of Engineering Simulation is becoming a key enabler of strategic goals for improving competitiveness

• Increase Innovation• Increase Quality• Reduce Risk• Reduce Time• Reduce Cost

Generative Design

A Simulation Revolution is needed

A Simulation Revolution is needed• The demand for software tools for Engineering Simulation is

exploding to support the need for• increased competitiveness • rapidly growing complexity of products, processes, and

systems.• New requirements/applications for Engineering Simulation

are emerging (e.g. Digital Twins)• The Engineering Simulation market growth is limited due to

lack of expertise available• Engineering Simulation is still done primarily by specialized

Analysts

A Simulation Revolution is needed

• Business Drivers are going to force a “revolution”

• Engineering Simulation will be forced to find a way

Generative Design

A Simulation Revolution is needed• The demand is not going away • A Simulation Revolution will

occur:• “Model-Based”• “Fit for purpose”• “Integrated”• “Smart” • “Transparent” / “Invisible”• “Generative”• “….”• CULTURE CHANGE

Expertise AvailableExpertise RequiredMCAE Market Trends

A Simulation Revolution is needed

• The Simulation Revolution is about making Engineering Simulation widely available & appropriate to support improved decision making throughout the entire life-cycle of the ever-increasing complexity of engineered products and processes

Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage

Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage

Technology• Math & Physics• Engineering• Computing hardware & software• Data management• etc.

Processes• Sharing knowledge• Reusing knowledge• Best practices• etc.

People• Tacit knowledge• Collaboration• Cultures• Global• etc.

Business• Customer knowledge• Market intelligence• Strategic goals• etc.

Simulation Plays a Key Role in Each Group

Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage

• Innovation• Feeds off of the knowledge of a company• Is based on sharing knowledge and wisdom across different

domain groups and organizational boundaries• Is generally associated with the development of new products• and services• Is generally the result of a series of incremental improvements• Results from well-managed, disciplined business processes---it

is not accidental!“Invention is 1% inspiration versus 99% perspiration”

--- Thomas Edison

Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage

• People, Processes and Technology define the foundation for creativity andinnovation– Technology makes it feasible– People and their Processes make

it successful!• Balancing and aligning these

elements with the Business Strategy• results in a Competitive Business

Advantage

Collaborative Model-Based Engineering

Collaborative Model-Based Engineering

Collaborative Model-Based Engineering

• What?• Provides a common modeling and simulation environment• Requirements, functional, logical, and physical inter-relationships• 3D CAx parametric, cross-discipline functions• Virtual design, build, test, and certify• Multi-physics modeling & simulation• Common meta-model• Knowledge capture

Collaborative Model-Based EngineeringDecision Support

Results

Process Management

Scenarios

Data Management

Models

Collaboration

Collaborative Model-Based Engineering

• Why?• Allows for Rapid Prototyping and Architecture Optimization• Leads to Early Integration and Requirements Validation• Creates a Truly Representative Simulation of the Product• Supports Model-Based Requirements to Suppliers• Increased Overall Fidelity of the Simulations• Reduced Development Time and Cost

Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy

Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy

The Aircraft Industry Building-Block Test Approach

Airplane and Major Components Validate analyses & verify product performance; optimize via large-scale optimization tools

Details and Subcomponents Develop design values; optimize manually or automatically

Materials and Processes Develop material properties via theory, experiment, & empirical methods

Componenttests

Sub-component tests

Structural elements tests

Allowables development

Material specification development

Material screening and selection

Full-scaletests

Tier 1

Tier 3

Tier 2

The test plan integrates all levels!

Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy

Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation SynergyCurrent – Notional Material Development and Certification Cycle

Material Properties ~4 yrs

Material Development & Producibility ~9 yrs

~ 18 Years

Material Performance Frozen

Product Design Cycle Begins

• Trial & Error• Disconnected from Requirements

Design Value Devel ~3 yrs

Analysis Validation ~4 yrs

New Product Development Cycle ~5-9 yrs

It can take longer to develop an all-new structural material than it takes to develop a new airplane – So designers have to rely on last-generation materials!

The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital

The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital

A Hyperloop Tube???LA to San Francisco in 35 minutes!

An Autonomous Car???

Can Similar Technologies be Applied to Engineering Simulation???

The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital

• The “Digital Twin” approach will dramatically increase the demand for Engineering Simulation• “What good is a Digital Twin if you

cannot evaluate its performance virtually?” - Fouad El Khaldi, ESI Group

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

• The first generation of Engineering Simulation is nearing an end!

• NOW, “ A New First Generation of Engineering Simulation” is beginning.

• We need to define collectively, a unified vision and roles to enable the Simulation Revolution in the coming decades.

• We must rethink the industry!

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

Academia

Government Vendors

Suppliers

ProfessionalOrganizations

Technology

ProcessesPeople

Business

Industry CAx End-Users

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

• Form alliances to develop harmonized visions for Engineering Simulation across industry, academia, government, professional organizations, and CAx vendors.

Need to implement “win-win” collaborative business scenarios for all!

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

• Develop next generation Engineering Simulation environments for collaborative modeling, analysis/optimization, immersive man-machine interactions, common visualizers, and standards-based cognitive knowledge sharing systems for experiencing real-time multi-physical responsesimulations.

Realistic simulation of problems at the speed of human thought should be our vision!

Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation

• Change our culture and enrich our pipeline of expertise in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) domains, beginning with preschoolers, through college, and beyond retirement; including skill/competency metrics, career growth training, communities of practice,etc.

Sexy simulation environments will define the destiny of the CAx industry!

Enabling the Engineering Simulation Revolution

Enabling the Simulation Revolution

• Technologies• Increased emphasis on purpose built

applications• Model Based Systems Engineering• Emergence of simulation knowledge capture

& reuse • Emergence of near real time / near physics

approaches• IoT access to “real” data

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Approaches

• Focusing on maximizing automation for appropriate accuracy for effective decision support

• Focusing on applications rather than physics

• Increasing the emphasis on Model Based Systems Engineering and integration with detailed sub-systems simulation

• Accounting for Variability and Uncertainty

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Approaches

• Driving design from requirements and available design space –Generative Design

(Image courtesy of Keith Meintjes, Executive Consultant and ASSESS Generative Design lead, CIMdata.)

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• NAFEMS• The International Association for

the Engineering Modelling, Analysis and Simulation Community.

• Best Practices• Webinars• Conferences

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• INCOSE• The International Council on

Systems Engineering• Best Practices• Webinars• Symposiums• Conferences

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• NAFEMS / INCOSE SMS Working Group• Promote advancement of the technology and

practices associated with co-simulation of systems engineering and engineering analysis

• Act as the governing body of standards in this space

• Drive strategic direction for technology development in this space

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• ASSESS Initiative• Formed to bring together key players to guide

and influence strategies for software tools formodel-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering.

• ASSESS Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• ASSESS Initiative vision“To expand significantly the use and business benefit of software tools for performing model-based analysis, simulation, systems engineering, and simulation-driven design in the engineering applications domain.”

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations

• ASSESS Initiative themes• Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES)• Engineering Simulation Confidence & Governance• Integration of Systems and Detailed Sub-System

Simulations• Alignment of Commercial, Research and Government

Efforts• Business Challenges• Generative Design

Enabling the Simulation Revolution

• Professional Organizations• ASSESS Initiative

• Advisory Committee• Working Groups aligned with

ASSESS themes• Focusing on industry

whitepapers• Annual Congress

Enabling the Simulation Revolution

• ASSESS 2017 Congress (November 1-3 2017, Potomac, MD)

• Keynote Presentations: • Advancing Regulatory Science and In Silico

Medicine at the FDA Tina Morrison, Ph. D., U.S. Food and Drug Administration

• The Future of Modeling and Simulation at Cummins Bob Tickel, Cummins Inc.

http://www.assessinitiative.com/congress/assess-2017/

Enabling the Simulation Revolution• You and your organization !!!

• Develop harmonized visions for Engineering Simulation • Develop and leverage next generation Engineering

Simulation environments• Change the current culture and enrich the pipeline of

expertise in STEM• Join professional organizations and actively participate in

the Engineering Simulation Revolution• (e.g. ASSESS 2017 Congress )

Questions