A Simulation Revolution is Needed to Solve the CAE ...€¦ · A Simulation Revolution is needed...
Transcript of A Simulation Revolution is Needed to Solve the CAE ...€¦ · A Simulation Revolution is needed...
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A Simulation Revolution is Needed to Solve the CAE Industry’s Problems
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Business Drivers
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Business Drivers
The worldwide business environment is seeing a strong focus on strategic goals for improving competitiveness
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Business DriversThe Role of Engineering Simulation is becoming a key enabler of strategic goals for improving competitiveness
• Increase Innovation• Increase Quality• Reduce Risk• Reduce Time• Reduce Cost
Generative Design
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A Simulation Revolution is needed
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A Simulation Revolution is needed• The demand for software tools for Engineering Simulation is
exploding to support the need for• increased competitiveness • rapidly growing complexity of products, processes, and
systems.• New requirements/applications for Engineering Simulation
are emerging (e.g. Digital Twins)• The Engineering Simulation market growth is limited due to
lack of expertise available• Engineering Simulation is still done primarily by specialized
Analysts
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A Simulation Revolution is needed
• Business Drivers are going to force a “revolution”
• Engineering Simulation will be forced to find a way
Generative Design
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A Simulation Revolution is needed• The demand is not going away • A Simulation Revolution will
occur:• “Model-Based”• “Fit for purpose”• “Integrated”• “Smart” • “Transparent” / “Invisible”• “Generative”• “….”• CULTURE CHANGE
Expertise AvailableExpertise RequiredMCAE Market Trends
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A Simulation Revolution is needed
• The Simulation Revolution is about making Engineering Simulation widely available & appropriate to support improved decision making throughout the entire life-cycle of the ever-increasing complexity of engineered products and processes
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Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage
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Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage
Technology• Math & Physics• Engineering• Computing hardware & software• Data management• etc.
Processes• Sharing knowledge• Reusing knowledge• Best practices• etc.
People• Tacit knowledge• Collaboration• Cultures• Global• etc.
Business• Customer knowledge• Market intelligence• Strategic goals• etc.
Simulation Plays a Key Role in Each Group
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Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage
• Innovation• Feeds off of the knowledge of a company• Is based on sharing knowledge and wisdom across different
domain groups and organizational boundaries• Is generally associated with the development of new products• and services• Is generally the result of a series of incremental improvements• Results from well-managed, disciplined business processes---it
is not accidental!“Invention is 1% inspiration versus 99% perspiration”
--- Thomas Edison
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Innovation and Competitive Business Advantage
• People, Processes and Technology define the foundation for creativity andinnovation– Technology makes it feasible– People and their Processes make
it successful!• Balancing and aligning these
elements with the Business Strategy• results in a Competitive Business
Advantage
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Collaborative Model-Based Engineering
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Collaborative Model-Based Engineering
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Collaborative Model-Based Engineering
• What?• Provides a common modeling and simulation environment• Requirements, functional, logical, and physical inter-relationships• 3D CAx parametric, cross-discipline functions• Virtual design, build, test, and certify• Multi-physics modeling & simulation• Common meta-model• Knowledge capture
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Collaborative Model-Based EngineeringDecision Support
Results
Process Management
Scenarios
Data Management
Models
Collaboration
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Collaborative Model-Based Engineering
• Why?• Allows for Rapid Prototyping and Architecture Optimization• Leads to Early Integration and Requirements Validation• Creates a Truly Representative Simulation of the Product• Supports Model-Based Requirements to Suppliers• Increased Overall Fidelity of the Simulations• Reduced Development Time and Cost
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Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy
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Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy
The Aircraft Industry Building-Block Test Approach
Airplane and Major Components Validate analyses & verify product performance; optimize via large-scale optimization tools
Details and Subcomponents Develop design values; optimize manually or automatically
Materials and Processes Develop material properties via theory, experiment, & empirical methods
Componenttests
Sub-component tests
Structural elements tests
Allowables development
Material specification development
Material screening and selection
Full-scaletests
Tier 1
Tier 3
Tier 2
The test plan integrates all levels!
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Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation Synergy
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Manufacturing, Testing, and Simulation SynergyCurrent – Notional Material Development and Certification Cycle
Material Properties ~4 yrs
Material Development & Producibility ~9 yrs
~ 18 Years
Material Performance Frozen
Product Design Cycle Begins
• Trial & Error• Disconnected from Requirements
Design Value Devel ~3 yrs
Analysis Validation ~4 yrs
New Product Development Cycle ~5-9 yrs
It can take longer to develop an all-new structural material than it takes to develop a new airplane – So designers have to rely on last-generation materials!
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The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital
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The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital
A Hyperloop Tube???LA to San Francisco in 35 minutes!
An Autonomous Car???
Can Similar Technologies be Applied to Engineering Simulation???
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The Internet of Things: Physical & Digital
• The “Digital Twin” approach will dramatically increase the demand for Engineering Simulation• “What good is a Digital Twin if you
cannot evaluate its performance virtually?” - Fouad El Khaldi, ESI Group
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
• The first generation of Engineering Simulation is nearing an end!
• NOW, “ A New First Generation of Engineering Simulation” is beginning.
• We need to define collectively, a unified vision and roles to enable the Simulation Revolution in the coming decades.
• We must rethink the industry!
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
Academia
Government Vendors
Suppliers
ProfessionalOrganizations
Technology
ProcessesPeople
Business
Industry CAx End-Users
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
• Form alliances to develop harmonized visions for Engineering Simulation across industry, academia, government, professional organizations, and CAx vendors.
Need to implement “win-win” collaborative business scenarios for all!
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
• Develop next generation Engineering Simulation environments for collaborative modeling, analysis/optimization, immersive man-machine interactions, common visualizers, and standards-based cognitive knowledge sharing systems for experiencing real-time multi-physical responsesimulations.
Realistic simulation of problems at the speed of human thought should be our vision!
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Enabling the Next Generation of Simulation
• Change our culture and enrich our pipeline of expertise in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) domains, beginning with preschoolers, through college, and beyond retirement; including skill/competency metrics, career growth training, communities of practice,etc.
Sexy simulation environments will define the destiny of the CAx industry!
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Enabling the Engineering Simulation Revolution
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution
• Technologies• Increased emphasis on purpose built
applications• Model Based Systems Engineering• Emergence of simulation knowledge capture
& reuse • Emergence of near real time / near physics
approaches• IoT access to “real” data
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Approaches
• Focusing on maximizing automation for appropriate accuracy for effective decision support
• Focusing on applications rather than physics
• Increasing the emphasis on Model Based Systems Engineering and integration with detailed sub-systems simulation
• Accounting for Variability and Uncertainty
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Approaches
• Driving design from requirements and available design space –Generative Design
(Image courtesy of Keith Meintjes, Executive Consultant and ASSESS Generative Design lead, CIMdata.)
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• NAFEMS• The International Association for
the Engineering Modelling, Analysis and Simulation Community.
• Best Practices• Webinars• Conferences
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• INCOSE• The International Council on
Systems Engineering• Best Practices• Webinars• Symposiums• Conferences
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• NAFEMS / INCOSE SMS Working Group• Promote advancement of the technology and
practices associated with co-simulation of systems engineering and engineering analysis
• Act as the governing body of standards in this space
• Drive strategic direction for technology development in this space
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• ASSESS Initiative• Formed to bring together key players to guide
and influence strategies for software tools formodel-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering.
• ASSESS Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• ASSESS Initiative vision“To expand significantly the use and business benefit of software tools for performing model-based analysis, simulation, systems engineering, and simulation-driven design in the engineering applications domain.”
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• Professional Organizations
• ASSESS Initiative themes• Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES)• Engineering Simulation Confidence & Governance• Integration of Systems and Detailed Sub-System
Simulations• Alignment of Commercial, Research and Government
Efforts• Business Challenges• Generative Design
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution
• Professional Organizations• ASSESS Initiative
• Advisory Committee• Working Groups aligned with
ASSESS themes• Focusing on industry
whitepapers• Annual Congress
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution
• ASSESS 2017 Congress (November 1-3 2017, Potomac, MD)
• Keynote Presentations: • Advancing Regulatory Science and In Silico
Medicine at the FDA Tina Morrison, Ph. D., U.S. Food and Drug Administration
• The Future of Modeling and Simulation at Cummins Bob Tickel, Cummins Inc.
http://www.assessinitiative.com/congress/assess-2017/
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Enabling the Simulation Revolution• You and your organization !!!
• Develop harmonized visions for Engineering Simulation • Develop and leverage next generation Engineering
Simulation environments• Change the current culture and enrich the pipeline of
expertise in STEM• Join professional organizations and actively participate in
the Engineering Simulation Revolution• (e.g. ASSESS 2017 Congress )
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Questions