Post on 08-Oct-2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
21 Februari 2020
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,942.5 0.2 -5.0 -9.3
MSCI Indonesia 24.0 -1.6 -8.2 -8.7
MSCI EM 1,095.3 -0.8 -3.7 5.2
HANG SENG 27,609.2 -0.2 -1.2 -3.4
KOSPI 2,210.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.8
FTSE 7,436.6 0 -2.0 4.0
DJIA 29,220.0 -0.4 0.5 13.5
NASDAQ 9,751.0 -0.7 4.8 31.6
Valuation
2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 14.2 2.0 16.9
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -100
3yr 5.43 -7 -44 -203
10yr 6.52 0 -29 -138
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,750.0 0.4 0.4 -2.5
USD/KRW 1,189.3 0.0 2.7 5.8
USD/JPY 112.1 0.7 2.0 1.3
USD/CNY 7.0 0.0 1.9 4.1
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 53.9 1.1 -7.6 2.8
Gold 1,619.6 0.5 3.9 22.4
Coal 68.6 0.6 -1.9 -27.9
Palm Oil 2,669.0 0.9 -10.2 25.1
Rubber 132.2 0.9 -4.4 -1.8
Nickel 12,670.0 -1.2 -9.6 -1.8
Copper 5,770.0 -0.1 -7.8 -9.9
Tin 16,575.0 0.3 -7.4 -22.2
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
Market commentary
Hariyanto Wijaya CFA, CPA (Aust), CMT (hariyanto.wijaya@miraeasset.co.id)
IHSG ditutup menguat selama empat hari berturut-turut dipimpin oleh penghitung
bank besar (BBRI, BBNI, BMRI). Kenaikan IHSG didukung oleh penurunan suku
bunga BI sebesar 25bps menjadi 4,75% (sejalan dengan ekspektasi sebagian besar
ekonom). BI rate memangkas keputusan sebagai inisiatif awal untuk
mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tengah potensi risiko penurunan
eksternal dari coronavirus. BI menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi TA20 menjadi
5,0-5,4% dari awalnya 5,1-5,5%, dengan angka PDB 1Q20 diperkirakan di bawah
5%. Kami memperkirakan IHSG akan diperdagangkan sideways hari ini.
Pendapatan FY19 (vs. konsensus): BBCA (sebaris).
Indeks AS ditutup lebih rendah pada hari Kamis karena investor menilai dampak
ekonomi pada pendapatan perusahaan dari coronavirus. Kasus coronavirus yang
baru dikonfirmasi dengan cepat meningkat di Korea Selatan, meskipun kasus yang
dilaporkan di Cina tampaknya sedang.
MAPI – Standing out from the crowd
Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
MAPI to continue to focus on higher-profit specialty stores
MAPI telah melanjutkan fokus ekspansi pada specialty store, konsisten dengan
perubahan preferensi belanja konsumen. Kami percaya strategi ini telah
membuahkan hasil. Tahun 2020, kami memperkirakan divisi specialty stores akan
membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan dua digit, terutama didorong oleh MAPA.
Selain pertumbuhan dari MAPA, kami melihat potensi baru dari bisnis kosmetik.
Tahun ini, MAPI menandatangani kemitraan dengan AmorePacific Group yang
bertujuan untuk meningkatkan jumlah toko kosmetik, terutama di kota besar
(Jakarta, Bali, Surabaya, Bandung). AmorePacific adalah kosmetik terkemuka di
Korea (pangsa pasar 24.5%), yang memiliki merek seperti Sulwhasoo, Laneige,
Innisfree, dan Etude House. Karena itu, kami berharap kosmetik dapat berperan
sebagai salah satu mesin pertumbuhan pendapatan yang baru pada bisnis specialty
store MAPI di masa depan, meskipun kontribusi pada tahun 2020 masih kecil.
2020 outlook: Double-digit revenue growth and lighter capex
Untuk 2020 kami memproyeksi pendapatan dan laba bersih MAPI tumbuh 13.4%
dan 16.8%, didukung oleh MAPA dan specialty stores lainnya. Sementara itu, upaya
ekspansi akan lebih ringan di 2020, mengingat high base 2019. Di November 2019,
MAPI membuka dept store di Deli Park Mall Medan dan toko MAPA, fashion, dan
F&B dengan masing-masing luas 5,000m2, 4,000m2, dan 500m2. (Kami percaya
area toko yang ditambahkan pada November 2019 belum berkontribusi signifikan
terhadap pendapatan 2019). Termasuk Deli Park Mall Medan, hampir 100,000 m2
area penjualan ditambahkan tahun lalu. Capex tahun 2020 lebih ringan (+6% YoY),
tanpa ada department store yang dibuka.
Initiate with a Buy rating
Kami initiate MAPI dengan rating Buy dengan 14.4x P/E 2020F, pada -1 SD dari P/E
rata-rata empat tahunnya. Kami percaya MAPI terlihat menarik, ditambah dengan
pertumbuhan EPS perusahaan yang kuat (+ 52% CAGR pada 2017-20F).
550
800
1,050
1,300
1,550
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19
JCI MSCI EM (pt)(pt)
21 Februari 2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
21 Februari 2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Local flashes
INCO: Pendapatan naik tipis, laba bersih Vale Indonesia (INCO) tahun lalu
turun 5,14%. PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) membukukan laba bersih periode
berjalan senilai US$ 57,40 juta. Realisasi ini turun 5,14% dibandingkan dengan laba
bersih periode berjalan tahun sebelumnya yang mencapai US$ 60,51 juta. Dari sisi top
line, pendapatan emiten nikel ini mengalami kenaikan. Sepanjang 2019, INCO
mencatatkan pendapatan US$ 782,01 juta atau naik tipis 1% dibandingkan dengan
pendapatan tahun lalu yakni US$ 776,9 juta. (Kontan)
MLPT: Multipolar (MLPT) tingkatkan modernisasi data center menggunakan
HCI Nutanix. Infrastruktur teknologi informasi (TI) dalam data center merupakan
pondasi utama untuk menunjang aktivitas bisnis. Namun masih banyak perusahaan
dengan infrastruktur data center yang silo, di mana fungsi server, storage, network,
dan virtualisasi berjalan sendiri-sendiri atau tidak terintegrasi. Hal ini menyebabkan TI
sulit berkembang, kompleksitas bertambah dan sulit untuk memenuhi tuntutan aplikasi
perusahaan yang berkembang atau laju bisnis modern yang cepat. Oleh karena itu, PT
Multipolar Technology Tbk (MLPT) bersama Tech Data menyelenggarakan seminar
bertema “Modernize Your Data Center” (Kontan)
WTON: Wika Beton (WTON) alokasikan 30% capex untuk tambah kapasitas
produksi. PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON) targetkan sepanjang tahun ini mampu
meningkatkan kapasitas produksi precast saja hingga 4 juta ton. Secara bertahap,
pihaknya berharap kuartal I dapat meningkatkan kapasitas menjadi 3,8 juta ton.
Yuherni Sisdwi, Sekretaris Perusahaan Wika Beton menyebutkan untuk mendukung
rencana tersebut pihaknya akan mengalokasikan sebagian anggaran belanja modal
atawa capital expenditure (capex). "Kami merencanakan untuk penambahan kapasitas
30% dari capex," (Kontan)
BBCA: Imbas virus corona dan faktor domestik, BCA bidik pertumbuhan
kredit 5%-7% di 2020. Sepanjang tahun lalu, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)
dapat meraih performa yang mumpuni. BCA berhasil meraih laba Rp 28,5 triliun,
tumbuh 10,5% dari tahun 2018. Sayangnya, tahun ini bank swasta terbesar di tanah
air ini tak bakal terlalu ekspansif, BCA cuma membidik pertumbuhan kredit 5%-7%.
Presiden Direktur BCA Jahja Setiaatmadja menjelaskan ada sejumlah faktor, terutama
soal penyebaran virus corona atau Covid-19 bakal jadi tantangan penyaluran kredit
BCA tahun ini. (Kontan)
BBNI: Sempat ciut, BNI pasang target laba bersih dua digit tahun ini. PT
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI) optimistis laba bersih di tahun 2020 bisa menembus
dua digit. Wakil Direktur Utama BNI Anggoro Eko Cahyo menegaskan pihaknya akan
tetap mendorong pertumbuhan kendati kondisi ekonomi global dan dalam negeri
masih belum mencapai level stabil. (Kontan)
BBKP: Bukopin bakal terbitkan 2,3 miliar saham baru lewat rights issue. PT
Bank Bukopin Tbk dalam rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB) turut
membicarakan rencana penambahan modal. Adapun, penambahan modal dengan
memberikan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) alias rights issue. Menurut
Direktur Bank Bukopin Adhi Brahmantya nantinya akan ada sekitar 2,3 miliar saham
baru yang diterbitkan dalam aksi korporasi tersebut. "Harganya sampai saat ini masih
dihitung," (Kontan)
21 Februari 2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-5088-7000 tasrul@miraeasset.co.id
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Daily – Limited Upside
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas normal upper band pada downtrend channel
jangka pendek.
IHSG saat ini berada dalam pola downtrend channel jangka pendek dimana korelasi
pergerakkan indeks ini dengan hari-hari sebelumnya masih relatif valid (r-squared =
0.8634) sejak 31 hari terakhir dimana bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.49
std.deviasi dari centerline. IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar +13.66 %
atau sekitar 4 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG secara harian saat
ini antara +0.23% / -0.62% atau +13.67/-36.84 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal
positif / negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 20, 2020) 5,942.49 (+0.23%) Trading range 5,910 – 5,959
Average index performance (%) (2.76) Target
Period 31 - Daily 5,959
r-squared 0.8634 - Weekly 5,989
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.25/-0.58
- Monthly 6,069
Volatility (+/-, point) +13.67/ -36.84 Stop loss 5,900
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily ,Short Trend – Downtrend
4 - 6,161
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 5,958.9
_____ 5,909.9
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,941 High: 5,961 Low: 5,929 Close: 5,942 Vol. 5,460,944,896
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,944.1
R-Squared: 0.8634
Period: 31
Std.Dev: 1.49
Volatility (+) : 0.0025
Volatility (-) : -0.0058
V-Ratio : 0.43
Chg.: 0.23%
5,942.49
5,921.91
5,920.62
5,904.48
5,827.51
5,827.51
5,734.4
5,694.31
5,960.71
5,989.78
6,084.13
9 16 23 30 2020 6 13 20 27 Feb 10 17
^JKSE - Volume = 5,460,944,896.00, MA(Volume,4) = 4,468,890,112.00
5,460,944,896
4,468,890,112
21 Februari 2020
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas indeks naik masihterlihat.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily indikator MFI
optimized , indikator W%R optimized dan indikator RSI optimized terlihat masih naik.
Sementara itu pada periode weekly indikator MFI optimized, indikator W%R optimized
dan indikator RSI optimized juga cenderung menguat. Daily support di 5,910 dan daily
resistance di 5,959. Cut loss level di 5,900
Figure 2. Daily, MFI optimized , W%R optimized & RSI optimized
X` x`x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 92.59 92.5866
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -32.72
-32.7197
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 71.45
71.4481
_____ 5,958.9
_____ 5,909.9
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,941 High: 5,961 Low: 5,929 Close: 5,942 Vol. 5,460,944,896
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,944.1
R-Squared: 0.8634
Period: 31
Std.Dev: 1.49
Volatility (+) : 0.0025
Volatility (-) : -0.0058
V-Ratio : 0.43
Chg.: 0.23%
5,942.49
5,921.91
5,904.48
5,989.78
6,084.13
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb
^JKSE - Volume = 5,460,944,896.00, MA(Volume,4) = 4,468,890,112.00
5,460,944,896
4,468,890,112
21 Februari 2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized ,W%R optimized & RSI optimized
A
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata masing masing periode
Pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata kenaikkan sekitar +0.25% saat ini di +0.23%.
Sementara itu pada pergerakan weekly kenaikkan normal rata-rata sekitar +1.18%
sementara saat ini di level +1.29%. Pada pergerakan monthly saat ini di level +0.04%,
normal kenaikkan di +2.29%. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih
terlihat namun sementara akan terbatas. Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan
normal trading range untuk masing-masig periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 5,910 – 5,959 Figure 5. Weekly : 5,840 – 5,989 Figure 6. Monthly : 5,745 - 6,069
x
x x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 5,958.9
_____ 5,909.9
5,944.1
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,941 High: 5,961 Low:
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,944.1
R-Squared: 0.8634
Period: 31
Std.Dev: 1.49
Volatility (+) : 0.0025
Volatility (-) : -0.0058
V-Ratio : 0.43
Chg.: 0.23%
5,942.49
10 17
^JKSE - Volume = 5,460,944,896.00 5,460,944,896
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 5,988.6
_____ 5,840.0
5,918.9
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,864 High: 5,961 Low:
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,918.9
R-Squared: 0.7838
Period: 240
Std.Dev: 1.23
Volatility (+) : 0.0118
Volatility (-) : -0.0133
V-Ratio : 0.88
Chg.: 1.29%
5,942.49
10 17 24 31 Feb 20
^JKSE - Volume = 17,875,560,448.00
17,875,560,448
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,069.2
_____ 5,744.8
5,933.2
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,921 High: 6,014 Low:
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,933.2
R-Squared: 0.7666
Period: 57
Std.Dev: 1.19
Volatility (+) : 0.0229
Volatility (-) : -0.0318
V-Ratio : 0.72
Chg.: 0.04%
5,942.49
2019 2020
^JKSE - Volume = 57,137,463,296.00
57,137,463,296
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 25.56
25.5562
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -57.49
-57.4895
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 35.85
35.8547
_____ 5,988.6_____ 5,840.0
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 5,864 High: 5,961 Low: 5,854 Close: 5,942 Vol. 17,875,560,448
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,918.9
R-Squared: 0.7838
Period: 240
Std.Dev: 1.23
Volatility (+) : 0.0118
Volatility (-) : -0.0133
V-Ratio : 0.88
Chg.: 1.29%
5,942.49
5,833.87
5,737.94
6,274.35
6,644.47
6,644.47
7,014.6
7,551.01
Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019 Apr Jul Oct 2020
^JKSE - Volume = 17,875,560,448.00, MA(Volume,9) = 20,545,536,000.00
17,875,560,448
20,545,536,000
21 Februari 2020
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Stocks on our focus list
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) – Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel
Secara umum harga saham ini mulai masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel pada
pergerakkan daily dimana korelasi pergerakkan harga terakhir dengan minggu
sebelumnya masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.7779) selama 98 hari terakhir dan
bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.22 std.deviasi dari center line. Harga keluar dari
pergerakan normal sekitar 22.11 % (sekitar 21 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal
pergerakan harga saat ini antara +0.72 % /-1.10% atau +32.83 rupiah /-50.16 rupiah
rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana
sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 20, 2020) 4,560(+1.79%) Trading range 4,500 –4,600
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 0.00 Target
β (beta) 1.02 - Daily 4,600
Corelation 0.43 - Weekly 4,625
Period 98 - Monthly 4,825
r-squared 0.7779 Stop loss 4,375
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.72% / -1.10%
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +32.83/-50.16
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 4,582.6
_____ 4,500.2
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 4,520 High: 4,580 Low: 4,510 Close: 4,560 Vol. 98,180,400
Prev. Avg. Price: 4,550.0
R-Squared: 0.7779
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.22
Volatility (+) : 0.0072
Volatility (-) : -0.0110
V-Ratio : 0.65
Chg.: 1.79%
4,560
4,506.51
4,399.94
4,378.91
4,563.94
4,641.73
4,641.73
4,776.94
4,904.54
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb
BBRI.JK - Volume = 98,180,400.00, MA(Volume,21) = 114,671,944.00
98,180,400
114,671,944
21 Februari 2020
8
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi. Indikator MFI optimized , indikator W%R
optimized dan indikator RSI optimized masih cenderung naik. Daily support di 4,500
sementara itu daily resistance di 4,625 . Cut loss level 4,375.
Figure 8. Daily, MFI optimized , W%R optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
BBRI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 39.56
39.5619
BBRI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -32.95
-32.9492
BBRI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 55.74
55.7419
_____ 4,582.6
_____ 4,500.2
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 4,520 High: 4,580 Low: 4,510 Close: 4,560 Vol. 98,180,400
Prev. Avg. Price: 4,550.0
R-Squared: 0.7779
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.22
Volatility (+) : 0.0072
Volatility (-) : -0.0110
V-Ratio : 0.65
Chg.: 1.79%
4,560
4,399.94
4,563.94
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb
BBRI.JK - Volume = 98,180,400.00, MA(Volume,21) = 114,671,944.00
98,180,400
114,671,944
21 Februari 2020
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing
periode.
Pada pergerakkan daily rata-rata kenaikkan normal sekitar +0.72% saat ini di +1.78%.
Sementara itu pada pergerakan weekly kenaikkan normal rata-rata sekitar +2.66%,
sementara saat ini di level +0.22%. Pada pergerakan monthly saat ini di level +2.24%,
normal kenaikkan +6.11%. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih
terlihat. Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-
masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 4,500 -4,625 Figure 10. Weekly : 4,375 – 6,625 Figure 11. Monthly : 4,325 – 4,825
x`
x`x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 4,582.6
_____ 4,500.2
4,550.0
4,615.6
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 4,520 High:
Prev. Avg. Price: 4,550.0
R-Squared: 0.7779
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.22
Volatility (+) : 0.0072
Volatility (-) : -0.0110
V-Ratio : 0.65
Chg.: 1.79%
4,560
10 17
BBRI.JK - Volume = 98,180,400.00
98,180,400
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 4,633.3
_____ 4,379.7
4,513.3
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 4,480
Prev. Avg. Price: 4,513.3
R-Squared: 0.8197
Period: 94
Std.Dev: 1.34
Volatility (+) : 0.0266
Volatility (-) : -0.0296
V-Ratio : 0.90
Chg.: 0.22%
4,560
17 24 31 Feb 20
BBRI.JK - Volume = 407,445,504.00
407,445,504
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 4,828.0
_____ 4,323.8
4,550
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Monthly - 2/20/2020 Open: 4,460
Prev. Avg. Price: 4,550.0
R-Squared: 0.9013
Period: 54
Std.Dev: 1.66
Volatility (+) : 0.0611
Volatility (-) : -0.0497
V-Ratio : 1.23
Chg.: 2.24%
4,560
Jul Oct 2020
BBRI.JK - Volume = 1,563,479,552.00
1,563,479,552
21 Februari 2020
10
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP) – Weekly , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend
channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel pada pergerakkan
weekly dimana korelasi pergerakkan harga terakhir dengan minggu sebelumnya masih
relatif valid (r-squared = 0.8017) selama 98 minggu terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam
rentang +/-1.28 std.deviasi dari center line. Harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar
19.83% (sekitar 19 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara
+2.34 % /-2.60 % atau +262.67 rupiah / -291.85 rupiah rata-rata pergerakan normal positif
/ negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 20, 2020) 11,225(+4.18%) Trading range 10,825 – 11,625
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 24.79 Target
β (beta) 0.96 - Daily 11,350
Corelation 0.77 - Weekly 11,625
Period 98 - Monthly 11,725
r-squared 0.8017 Stop loss 10,525
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.34/ -2.60
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +262.67/ -291.85
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Weekly – Uptrend
x` x` ,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
,,
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 11,368.7
_____ 10,819.2
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDOFOOD CBP SUK [ ICBP.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 10,750 High: 11,375 Low: 10,725 Close: 11,225 Vol. 18,053,500
Prev. Avg. Price: 11,108.3
R-Squared: 0.8011
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.28
Volatility (+) : 0.0234
Volatility (-) : -0.0260
V-Ratio : 0.90
Chg.: 4.18%
11,225
11,168.7
10,539.7
11,871.4
11,871.4
12,574.1
13,203.2
Feb Mar 29Apr May 31Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb
ICBP.JK - Volume = 18,053,500.00, MA(Volume,5) = 27,056,560.00
18,053,500
27,056,560
21 Februari 2020
11
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI, indikator W%R optimized
dan indikator RSI optimized masih cenderung bergerak naik. Weekly support di
11,625 sementara itu weekly resistance di 10,825. Cut loss level di 10,525.
Figure 13 . Weekly , MFI optimized, W%R optimized & RSI Optimized
,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
C r e a t e d w i t h A m i B r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r t i n g a n d t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s s o f t w a r e . h t t p : / / w w w . a m i b r o k e r . c o m
IC B P .J K - MFI Smoothed = 41.09
41.0874
ICBP.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -57.11
-57.113
ICBP.JK - RSI Smoothed = 41.94
41.9389
_____ 11,368.7
_____ 10,819.2
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDOFOOD CBP SUK [ ICBP.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 10,750 High: 11,375 Low: 10,725 Close: 11,225 Vol. 18,053,500
Prev. Avg. Price: 11,108.3
R-Squared: 0.8011
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.28
Volatility (+) : 0.0234
Volatility (-) : -0.0260
V-Ratio : 0.90
Chg.: 4.18%
11,225
10,779.5
11,282.3
11,416.5
2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019 Apr Jul Oct 2020
ICBP.JK - Volume = 18,053,500.00, MA(Volume,5) = 27,056,560.00
18,053,500
27,056,560
21 Februari 2020
12
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-
masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Lebih lanjut potensi kenaikkan
normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +0.70% saat ini di level +2.05%
Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +2.34% saat ini
harga di level +4.18%. Pada pergerakan monthly koreksi normal sekitar -4.87% saat ini
di -1.32%. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Pada Figure
14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 11,100 – 11,350 Figure 15. Weekly : 10,825 – 11,625 Figure 16. Monthly :10,625 – 11,725
, x`
x` x` x
,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 11,278.5
_____ 11,090.6
11,200
11,357.4
INDOFOOD CBP SUK [ ICBP.JK ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open: 11,025
Prev. Avg. Price: 11,200.0
R-Squared: 0.5075
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 0.68
Volatility (+) : 0.0070
Volatility (-) : -0.0098
V-Ratio : 0.72
Chg.: 2.05%
11,225
14 17 18 19 20
ICBP.JK - Volume = 5,472,600.00
5,472,600
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 11,368.7
_____ 10,819.2
11,108.3
11,634.7
INDOFOOD CBP SUK [ ICBP.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 10,750
Prev. Avg. Price: 11,108.3
R-Squared: 0.8011
Period: 98
Std.Dev: 1.28
Volatility (+) : 0.0234
Volatility (-) : -0.0260
V-Ratio : 0.90
Chg.: 4.18%
11,225
17 24 31 Feb 20
ICBP.JK - Volume = 18,053,500.00
18,053,500
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 11,723.5
_____ 10,615.1
11,158.3
INDOFOOD CBP SUK [ ICBP.JK ] - Monthly - 2/20/2020 Open: 11,375
Prev. Avg. Price: 11,158.3
R-Squared: 0.9417
Period: 111
Std.Dev: 1.90
Volatility (+) : 0.0506
Volatility (-) : -0.0487
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: -1.32%
11,225
Jul Oct 2020
ICBP.JK - Volume = 99,737,304.00
99,737,304
21 Februari 2020
13
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN) – Weekly, Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini berada dalam pola uptrend trend channel dimana
korelasi pergerakkan harga masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.8697) selama 65 minggu
terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.52 std.deviasi dari centerline. Harga
keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 13.03% (sekitar 8 bar chart ). Rata-rata
volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara +5.62/ -4.83% atau +82.90 rupiah
/ -71.24 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis)
sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 20, 2020) 1,475(-1.99%) Trading range 1,420 – 1,570
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 8.81 Target
β (beta) 1.19 - Daily 1,500
Corelation (0.63) - Weekly 1,570
Period 65 - Monthly 1,690
r-squared 0.8697 Stop loss 1,400
Volatility (+/-, %) +5.62/ -4.83
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +82.90/ -71.24
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Weekly – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
,
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,568.4
_____ 1,413.3
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk [ MNCN.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 1,500 High: 1,515 Low: 1,465 Close: 1,475 Vol. 93,187,392
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,485.0
R-Squared: 0.8697
Period: 65
Std.Dev: 1.52
Volatility (+) : 0.0562
Volatility (-) : -0.0483
V-Ratio : 1.16
Chg.: -1.99%
1,475
1,466
1,416.07
1,404.25
1,241.37
1,591.56
1,633.42
1,633.42
1,800.84
1,862.59
Aug 16 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr 18 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 Feb 20
MNCN.JK - Volume = 93,187,392.00, MA(Volume,5) = 111,949,136.00
93,187,392
111,949,136
21 Februari 2020
14
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun masih terlihat namun mulai
terbatas.
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi. Indikator MFI optimized ,indikator RSI
optimized serta indikator W%R optimized sudah berada di oversold area. Perkiraan
weekly support di 1,420 dan weekly resistance di 1,570.Cut loss level di 1,400.
Figure 18. Weekly ,MFI optimized ,W%R optimized & RSI optimized
XXXXXXXXXXXXX XX,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
MNCN.JK - MFI Smoothed = 8.01
8.00835
MNCN.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -75.76
-75.7611
MNCN.JK - RSI Smoothed = 7.13
7.1294
_____ 1,568.4
_____ 1,413.3
Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Tasrul Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk [ MNCN.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open: 1,500 High: 1,515 Low: 1,465 Close: 1,475 Vol. 93,187,392
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,485.0
R-Squared: 0.8697
Period: 65
Std.Dev: 1.52
Volatility (+) : 0.0562
Volatility (-) : -0.0483
V-Ratio : 1.16
Chg.: -1.99%
1,475
1,416.07
1,241.37
1,591.56
Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019 Apr Jul Oct 2020
MNCN.JK - Volume = 93,187,392.00, MA(Volume,5) = 111,949,136.00
93,187,392
111,949,136
21 Februari 2020
15
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut potensi
koreksi harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -1.89%, saat ini di level -1.01.%. Pada
pergerakkan weekly potensi koreksi normal sekitar -4.83%, saat ini di level -1.99%.
Sementara pergerakkan monthly saat ini level -7.232% sementara koreksi normal di -
9.62%. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21
terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 1,450 – 1,500 Figure 20. Weekly : 1,420 – 1,570 Figure 21. Monthly : 1,380 – 1,690
,
x` x,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin
sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,504.1
_____ 1,450.3
1,478.3
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk [ MNCN.JK ] - Daily - 2/20/2020 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,478.3
R-Squared: 0.7220
Period: 127
Std.Dev: 1.08
Volatility (+) : 0.0175
Volatility (-) : -0.0189
V-Ratio : 0.92
Chg.: -1.01%
1,475
10 17
MNCN.JK - Volume = 25,805,300.00
25,805,300
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,568.4
_____ 1,413.3
1,485.0
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk [ MNCN.JK ] - Weekly - 2/20/2020 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,485.0
R-Squared: 0.8697
Period: 65
Std.Dev: 1.52
Volatility (+) : 0.0562
Volatility (-) : -0.0483
V-Ratio : 1.16
Chg.: -1.99%
1,475
17 24 31 Feb 20
MNCN.JK - Volume = 93,187,392.00
93,187,392
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,686.6
_____ 1,381.3
1,528.3
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk [ MNCN.JK ] - Monthly - 2/20/2020 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,528.3
R-Squared: 0.7922
Period: 85
Std.Dev: 1.25
Volatility (+) : 0.1036
Volatility (-) : -0.0962
V-Ratio : 1.08
Chg.: -7.23%
1,475
Jul Oct 2020
MNCN.JK - Volume = 327,162,016.00
327,162,016
21 Februari 2020
16
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are Feb 18
th, 2020
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,500
13,600
13,700
13,800
13,900
14,000
14,100
14,200
5,800
5,900
6,000
6,100
6,200
6,300
6,400
11/21 12/19 1/16 2/13
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.2 1.2
-4.7
-9.1
1.0 2.2
-0.3
-13.5 -16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p)
78
-247
-12 -77 -11
181
-544
-853
-105 -162 -29
45
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn)
80
90
100
110
6/27 7/25 8/22 9/19
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
11/21 12/19 1/16 2/13
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100)
80
90
100
110
120
11/19 12/19 01/20 02/20
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
95
100
105
110
115
11/19 12/19 01/20 02/20
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
21 Februari 2020
17
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,942 6,898,463 0.2 1.2 -4.7 -9.1 14.2 12.9 2.0 1.9 16.9 -6.5
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 32,975 812,999 -1.5 -2.9 -3.4 19.8 28.8 28.3 4.7 4.7 17.5 17.7
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 8,000 373,333 0.6 1.9 3.9 9.2 13.0 13.6 1.8 1.9 14.2 14.4
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 4,560 562,457 1.8 -0.2 -2.4 16.6 15.6 16.1 2.6 2.8 17.7 18.1
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 7,925 147,791 1.9 7.1 4.6 -11.2 9.5 9.5 1.2 1.2 13.3 13.8
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 1,920 20,333 1.3 9.7 -7.7 -24.4 10.4 9.6 0.9 0.8 9.4 9.7
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 1,945 226,239 -0.5 -1.8 -10.0 -48.8 15.8 17.0 6.3 6.2 39.7 37.2
Gudang Garam GGRM 55,575 106,931 0.7 0.7 -2.5 -33.0 10.8 11.7 2.2 2.0 20.5 17.3
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 11,225 130,905 2.0 3.9 -4.1 7.2 26.0 23.8 5.4 4.8 21.3 20.9
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,300 64,097 3.5 4.3 -11.5 -3.3 13.7 12.1 1.8 1.6 12.2 12.8
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,420 66,563 -1.0 3.6 -11.8 -7.2 25.5 23.6 4.1 3.8 16.8 16.3
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 7,650 291,848 2.3 3.4 -8.1 -22.8 43.3 39.2 60.7 48.0 116.7 103.3
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 11,150 21,460 -0.4 1.1 -9.7 -18.9 46.9 17.3 1.1 1.1 2.8 5.9
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,150 7,846 -0.9 -0.9 -9.1 -17.6 49.4 16.3 0.9 0.9 1.8 4.9
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 800 7,620 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -29.5 35.6 14.7 1.8 1.9 8.6 15.6
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 2,680 28,644 -2.9 -1.1 -18.8 1.1 47.0 43.7 1.8 1.5 3.8 3.4
Jasa Marga JSMR 5,050 36,652 1.0 3.9 -0.5 0.5 17.8 17.5 1.9 1.8 10.8 9.8
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1,555 37,696 1.6 3.3 -20.5 -41.1 11.3 10.3 1.0 0.9 8.6 9.4
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 1,180 26,735 -0.8 -4.1 3.1 32.9 30.1 26.9 6.9 6.7 24.6 25.9
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,630 359,596 0.3 -2.7 -6.7 -4.9 17.4 15.5 3.4 3.2 19.7 20.9
Soechi Lines SOCI 137 967 0.7 6.2 -17.5 -18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 334 8,646 -2.3 -6.2 -26.4 -28.0 N/A N/A 1.2 1.3 -11.3 -12.7
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 11,775 69,844 0.2 5.4 -7.3 -8.9 34.1 22.2 2.2 2.0 6.3 9.2
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 6,850 112,326 0.7 11.4 -2.8 -9.0 32.7 27.0 5.3 4.7 16.7 17.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 17,300 63,685 -0.1 10.0 -6.5 -13.1 38.5 30.6 2.7 2.7 7.1 8.8
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,590 18,645 1.9 10.8 1.3 -31.8 12.0 9.7 1.7 1.5 14.4 16.2
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 10,925 12,344 1.2 7.6 -10.1 -52.6 6.7 6.8 1.0 1.0 14.9 14.8
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,350 43,181 3.4 0.0 -4.6 -4.6 7.0 7.5 0.8 0.7 11.1 9.3
Aneka Tambang ANTM 710 17,062 0.7 4.4 -10.7 -31.4 18.3 13.6 0.8 0.8 4.5 4.9
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,120 31,001 2.6 -1.9 -8.2 -15.9 45.3 22.7 1.2 1.1 2.7 4.6
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 2,490 28,686 3.8 9.2 -2.7 -40.7 6.8 7.8 1.6 1.5 24.0 20.2
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 18,425 68,728 -0.3 4.5 -12.6 -30.5 6.3 6.5 1.1 1.0 18.6 16.4
AKR Corporindo AKRA 3,060 12,285 0.7 0.3 -9.2 -46.8 14.8 13.7 1.4 1.3 10.5 10.1
Global Mediacom BMTR 344 5,275 -1.7 1.2 -6.0 -19.2 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 19.6 18.8
Matahari Department Store LPPF 3,550 9,957 0.0 11.3 -12.1 -38.8 6.8 6.8 4.5 3.6 72.7 56.8
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,475 21,057 -1.0 -1.0 -15.7 52.8 9.8 8.6 1.8 1.5 18.8 18.4
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 117 881 1.7 3.5 -15.8 -64.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,330 19,650 -2.2 -1.1 -16.1 -26.9 15.0 13.2 3.8 3.4 26.4 27.3
Siloam International Hospital SILO 6,850 11,136 0.0 1.5 4.2 89.8 228.7 130.9 1.8 1.6 0.8 1.3
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,140 21,941 -1.3 3.6 -5.0 -13.3 8.7 10.7 0.7 0.7 9.0 7.0
Adhi Karya ADHI 970 3,454 -2.5 4.9 -11.8 -38.0 5.1 4.4 0.5 0.5 10.0 10.4
Alam Sutera Relaty ASRI 177 3,478 -1.7 4.1 -18.8 -46.4 6.0 5.2 0.3 0.3 4.9 5.6
Ciputra Development CTRA 975 18,096 0.0 10.2 -3.0 8.3 19.3 17.5 1.2 1.1 6.1 6.2
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 232 16,448 -1.7 0.0 -0.9 2.2 N/A 22.8 0.6 0.6 -3.4 2.0
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 1,475 9,145 -1.3 9.3 -3.0 -29.1 7.6 6.3 0.7 0.6 8.7 10.0
Pakuwon Jati PWON 580 27,933 -2.5 7.4 0.9 -10.1 10.4 10.5 1.9 1.7 18.9 14.5
Summarecon Agung SMRA 905 13,056 0.0 6.5 -7.7 -7.7 26.7 23.4 1.8 1.6 6.4 7.7
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,040 18,299 -1.9 4.9 2.3 15.6 9.0 8.3 1.1 1.0 13.0 12.7
Waskita Karya WSKT 1,215 16,492 -0.4 10.5 -8.6 -34.5 6.5 6.7 0.8 0.7 11.5 10.4
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 6,275 254,034 0.4 5.5 -10.7 -18.5 11.9 10.9 1.7 1.6 14.7 14.6
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
21 Februari 2020
18
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap
(IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,293.2 -0.5 CITA IJ 2000 7,921 5.26
Mining 1,454.9 1.6
AMRT IJ 850 35,296 4.94
Basic-Industry 883.0 -0.2 BDMN IJ 3740 36,553 4.18
Miscellaneous Industry 1,102.0 0.2 PTBA IJ 2490 28,686 3.8
Consumer Goods 1,937.5 0.8 INDF IJ 7300 64,097 3.55
Property & Construction 455.9 -0.6
ADRO IJ 1350 43,181 3.45
Infrastructure 1,017.5 -0.1 PSAB IJ 250 6,615 3.31
Finance 1,349.2 0.2 BCAP IJ 152 6,044 2.70
Trade 704.2 -0.1 INCO IJ 3120 31,001 2.63
Composite 5,942.5 0.2 UNVR IJ 7650 291,848 2.34
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
BBRI IJ 1.8 4,560 BBCA IJ -1.5 32,975
UNVR IJ 2.3 7,650 BRPT IJ -1.2 1,220
BBNI IJ 1.9 7,925 MYOR IJ -2.7 1,985
ICBP IJ 2.1 11,225 HMSP IJ -0.5 1,945
BMRI IJ 0.6 8,000 FREN IJ -3.7 104
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
5:00am AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.6
5:00am AUD Flash Services PMI 50.6
6:00am NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
6:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.7% 0.7%
7:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.8
11:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.3% 0.9%
3:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 51.4 51.0
3:15pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.8 51.1
3:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 44.8 45.3
3:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 53.9 54.2
4:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 47.9
4:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI 52.4 52.5
4:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.7 50.0
4:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI 53.4 53.9
4:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -12.0B 4.0B
5:00pm EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
5:00pm EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.1% 1.1%
8:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.2%
8:30pm CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.9%
9:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -2.8 -2.0
9:35pm USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
9:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.9
9:45pm USD Flash Services PMI 53.3 53.3
10:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.46M 5.54M
10:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
21 Februari 2020
19
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
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