They keep topping

up the punch bowl!

Alan McIntosh

Chief Investment Strategist

20-22nd September 2016

Source: hedgeye.com, 20/01/2015

Where in the world?

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Source: Citi Global Economic Outlook & Strategy, 24/08/2016

Are we getting older and lazier?

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Source: Citi Research, United Nations, US Bureau of Economic Growth, Japan CAO, Eurostat, UK National Statistics 31 August 2016

Wages and prices remain subdued

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What are central banks doing?

• Not much - yet

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What are governments doing?

• US raising interest rates

• Eurozone cutting interest rates / more QE

• UK cutting interest rates / more QE

• Japan cutting interest rates / more QE

Eurozone interest rates – all the way to negative

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Inflation remains well below target

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And growth is modest

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Free money for all!!

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Source: Google images

US – Will the fed raise interest rates this year?

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Employment remains strong

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But inflation has crept up

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Stocks are riding high

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But climbing a wall of worry?

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Source: truthdig.com 30/11/2015

Brexit means Brexit – whatever that means...

• Article 50 likely to be invoked in 2017

• Followed by two years of negotiations

• Meanwhile

– More monetary easing

• Interest rate cut

• Quantitative easing

– Fiscal easing

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The pound has fallen sharply

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The FTSE 100 – up in pounds, down in euros

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What about valuations? SARA...

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...meet TINA! Dividend yield hugely supportive

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All that glitters...

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information and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion are

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