2016 sep 21 Alan mc intosh
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Transcript of 2016 sep 21 Alan mc intosh
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They keep topping
up the punch bowl!
Alan McIntosh
Chief Investment Strategist
20-22nd September 2016
Source: hedgeye.com, 20/01/2015
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Where in the world?
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Source: Citi Global Economic Outlook & Strategy, 24/08/2016
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Are we getting older and lazier?
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Source: Citi Research, United Nations, US Bureau of Economic Growth, Japan CAO, Eurostat, UK National Statistics 31 August 2016
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Wages and prices remain subdued
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What are central banks doing?
• Not much - yet
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What are governments doing?
• US raising interest rates
• Eurozone cutting interest rates / more QE
• UK cutting interest rates / more QE
• Japan cutting interest rates / more QE
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Eurozone interest rates – all the way to negative
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Inflation remains well below target
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And growth is modest
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Free money for all!!
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Source: Google images
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US – Will the fed raise interest rates this year?
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Employment remains strong
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But inflation has crept up
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Stocks are riding high
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But climbing a wall of worry?
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Source: truthdig.com 30/11/2015
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Brexit means Brexit – whatever that means...
• Article 50 likely to be invoked in 2017
• Followed by two years of negotiations
• Meanwhile
– More monetary easing
• Interest rate cut
• Quantitative easing
– Fiscal easing
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The pound has fallen sharply
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The FTSE 100 – up in pounds, down in euros
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What about valuations? SARA...
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...meet TINA! Dividend yield hugely supportive
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All that glitters...
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared only for the recipient and date shown on the front page. It is not
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information and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion are
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