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ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
2012 Annual Conference
InterContinental Buckhead Atlanta, Georgia September 20-23, 2012
THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition
Going for Gold! Review of Global Hotel Performance with
a focus on Olympic performance
Elizabeth Winkle, STR Global
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Est. in ‘08 – merger btwn STR, Deloi9e’s Hotel Benchmark, The Bench Headquartered in London with 10 offices in 9 countries Remit ROW = Rest Of the World all countries except US, Canada, Mexico & Carribbean
Report on 2.2 million rooms outside North America in 143 countries 30% brand vs. 70% independent
Who is STR Global
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Top 10 Markets by # of Participating Rooms
China -‐ 355K Japan -‐ 103K
UK -‐ 304K Italy -‐ 79K
Germany -‐ 161K UAE -‐ 54K
Spain -‐ 122K India -‐ 54K
Australia -‐ 106K France -‐ 47K
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Global overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new supply Olympics – London & past Olympic ci\es performance Forecast – what does the future hold for the end of 2012?
Agenda
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Global RevPAR Percent Change (in $USD except Europe) Annual 2010, 2011 & YTD August 2012
Europe € 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +9.9% +5.8% +5.3%
Southern Africa $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +14.1% -‐2.1% -‐3.5%
Asia Pacific $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +21.3% +9.8% +3.3%
South America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +19.0% +19.5% -‐1.8%
North America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +6.1% +8.0% +6.8%
Central America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +6.3% +0.5% -‐0.6%
Middle East $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 -‐4.4% +4.1% +7.0%
Northern Africa $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +11.4% -‐36.2% +10.5%
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Demand growth w/muted supply growth YTD 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revPAR USD$
SUPPLY
DEMAND
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON! 7
Asia Pacific in detail – RevPAR growth except C&S
YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPar%
Total 66% $139 $92 +3.3% C&S Asia 59% $142 $84 -14.0% NE Asia 65% $128 $83 +6.7% SE Asia 70% $135 $95 +4.0% Australia &Oceania 72% $174 $126 +3.0%
Jan-Aug 2012
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Selected Asia Pacific Markets Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON! 9
MEA by region – RevPAR growth in ME; rebound in N. Africa
YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR%
Total 59% $158 $94 +7.0% Middle East 64% $197 $127 +8.9% Northern Africa 50% $84 $41 +10.5% Southern Africa 58% $132 $76 -3.5%
Jan-Aug 2012
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Selected MEA Markets Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON! 11
Americas – Rate Growth across the board
YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR%
Total Americas 63% $108 $68 +6.6% North America 63% $107 $67 +6.8% Caribbean 70% $181 $127 +11.2% Central America 61% $117 $72 -0.6% South America 65% $143 $93 -1.8%
Jan-July 2012
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Selected Central & S. American Mkts Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON! 13
Europe in detail – RevPAR growth in all regions
Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR% Total 66% €105 €69 +5.3% Eastern 60% €89 €52 +9.3% Northern 70% €100 €70 +9.6% Southern 62% €105 €65 +1.8% Western 66% €115 €75 +2.4%
Jan-Aug YTD 2012
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Selected European Markets Jan-‐July 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Global overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new supply Olympics – London & past Olympic ci\es performance Forecast – what does the future hold for the end of 2012?
Agenda
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
European long-term view Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
European long-term view YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Spotlight on downturn YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Europe € - taking longer to recover Total Europe, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD 2012
90.00
92.00
94.00
96.00
98.00
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
108.00
110.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2
-‐13%
23 months
Apr ’08 €107
Feb ’10 €93
+9.6%
29 months
July ‘12 €102
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Global overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new supply Olympics – London & past Olympic ci\es performance Forecast – what does the future hold for the end of 2012?
Agenda
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
19 July – 4 August 15 September – 1 October
13 – 29 August 8 -‐24 August
27 July – 12 August
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
London 2012 July/Aug/Sept 2012 daily ADR performance
Source: Le Petit Prince, Antoine de Saint-Exupery
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
London 2012 June to 10 Sept daily ADR performance
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16% Ja
n Y
R-1
Mar
YR
-1
May
YR
-1
Jul Y
R-1
Sep
YR
-1
Nov
YR
-1
Jan
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan
YR
+1
Mar
YR
+1
May
YR
+1
Jul Y
R+1
Sep
YR
+1
Nov
YR
+1
Jan
YR
+2
Mar
YR
+2
May
YR
+2
Jul Y
R+2
Sep
YR
+2
Nov
YR
+2
Atlanta
Sydney
Athens
Beijing
London
Supply in Olympic Cities Daily # Census % change YOY
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan
YR
-1
Mar
YR
-1
May
YR
-1
Jul Y
R-1
Sep
YR
-1
Nov
YR
-1
Jan
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan
YR
+1
Mar
YR
+1
May
YR
+1
Jul Y
R+1
Sep
YR
+1
Nov
YR
+1
Jan
YR
+2
Mar
YR
+2
May
YR
+2
Jul Y
R+2
Sep
YR
+2
Nov
YR
+2
Atlanta
Sydney
Athens
Beijing
London
Demand in Olympic Cities Monthly occupied rooms % change YOY
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
-20%
30%
80%
130%
180%
230%
280%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Atlanta
Sydney
Athens
Beijing
London
ADR in Olympic Cities ADR local currency % change YOY during Olympic year
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
So were we fully booked? Occupancy achieved during the Olympic Year
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
£0
£50
£100
£150
£200
£250
06/01/2012
06/04/2012
06/07/2012
06/10/2012
06/13/2012
06/16/2012
06/19/2012
06/22/2012
06/25/2012
06/28/2012
07/01/2012
07/04/2012
07/07/2012
07/10/2012
07/13/2012
07/16/2012
07/19/2012
07/22/2012
07/25/2012
07/28/2012
07/31/2012
08/03/2012
08/06/2012
08/09/2012
08/12/2012
08/15/2012
08/18/2012
08/21/2012
08/24/2012
08/27/2012
08/30/2012
09/02/2012
09/05/2012
09/08/2012
ADR Occupancy
London: Seasonally adjusted 1st June to 8th Sept
Including Para Olympics
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Year-end results for past Olympic cities % change, local currency
London forecast Aug 2012
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Global overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new supply Olympics – London & past Olympic ci\es performance Forecast – what does the future hold for the end of 2012?
Agenda
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand % Change
*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
Forecast – Selected Markets 2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition
Declines expected Growth expected
Athens Amsterdam Dubai Rome
Madrid Barcelona Dublin Singapore
Regional UK Beijing Hong Kong Sydney
Milan Berlin London Tokyo
Zurich Brussels Moscow Vienna
Budapest
Prague Warsaw
Copenhagen Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale
ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!
STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
Contact details
Elizabeth Winkle 0207 922 1968
ewinkle@strglobal.com
www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook,